-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPBZ 281247
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
847 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving upper level system will finally clear the area on
Friday. Until then, expect the risk for scattered showers. Most
of the rain today will be over Ohio, with that risk shifting to
the east tonight and Friday. We dry out by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Isolated showers associated with an upper low currently
centered over southern Michigan and slowly transitioning east
will result in isolated to scattered showers today...with the
greatest coverage during the afternoon with a crossing
shortwave. Temperatures again will be close to seasonal
averages.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Better eastward progression of the upper low is expected
Thursday night and Friday, keeping scattered showers in the
forecast through the overnight into Friday morning. However,
models continue to indicate the associated rain shield will
decay overnight with lack of deeper moisture.

Lingering showers should mostly clear the area by Friday
afternoon as the broadening low exits and forcing diminishes.

Weak warm advection ahead of the trough will warm temperatures
several degrees on Friday.

Upper ridging will begin Friday night into Saturday as the
upper trough/wave exits east. Expect lots of sunshine on
Saturday with warm temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad surface high pressure and a strengthening ridge will then
dominate weather over the eastern CONUS this weekend and into
the middle of next week. This pattern will foster dry weather
and seasonably warm temperature through the period. The degree
of warming will depend on ridge strength/positioning, but
ensembles indicate only about a 3 degree change between the
current forecasted values and the 90th percentile (high-end)
possibilities.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An upper low approaching the region will result in isolated to
scattered showers through the period with the best coverage
during the afternoon and early evening with a crossing
shortwave. Outside of ZZV, VFR should prevail despite
intermittent precipitation but overnight cig/vis restrictions
are likely to develop and persist into Friday morning. There
should be enough near-surface turbulence to keep vis
restrictions MVFR. With cigs, model guidance suggest MVFR while
analogs suggest IFR by tomorrow morning.


.OUTLOOK...
Scattered showers and cig restrictions are expected through
Friday as the low completes its passage. VFR should then return
through early next week under high pressure.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...22/88
NEAR TERM...22
SHORT TERM...Rackley/22
LONG TERM...Rackley/Frazier
AVIATION...WM/88