Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 281247 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 847 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving upper level system will finally clear the area on Friday. Until then, expect the risk for scattered showers. Most of the rain today will be over Ohio, with that risk shifting to the east tonight and Friday. We dry out by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Isolated showers associated with an upper low currently centered over southern Michigan and slowly transitioning east will result in isolated to scattered showers today...with the greatest coverage during the afternoon with a crossing shortwave. Temperatures again will be close to seasonal averages.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/... Better eastward progression of the upper low is expected Thursday night and Friday, keeping scattered showers in the forecast through the overnight into Friday morning. However, models continue to indicate the associated rain shield will decay overnight with lack of deeper moisture. Lingering showers should mostly clear the area by Friday afternoon as the broadening low exits and forcing diminishes. Weak warm advection ahead of the trough will warm temperatures several degrees on Friday. Upper ridging will begin Friday night into Saturday as the upper trough/wave exits east. Expect lots of sunshine on Saturday with warm temperatures. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Broad surface high pressure and a strengthening ridge will then dominate weather over the eastern CONUS this weekend and into the middle of next week. This pattern will foster dry weather and seasonably warm temperature through the period. The degree of warming will depend on ridge strength/positioning, but ensembles indicate only about a 3 degree change between the current forecasted values and the 90th percentile (high-end) possibilities. && .AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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An upper low approaching the region will result in isolated to scattered showers through the period with the best coverage during the afternoon and early evening with a crossing shortwave. Outside of ZZV, VFR should prevail despite intermittent precipitation but overnight cig/vis restrictions are likely to develop and persist into Friday morning. There should be enough near-surface turbulence to keep vis restrictions MVFR. With cigs, model guidance suggest MVFR while analogs suggest IFR by tomorrow morning. .OUTLOOK... Scattered showers and cig restrictions are expected through Friday as the low completes its passage. VFR should then return through early next week under high pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...22/88 NEAR TERM...22 SHORT TERM...Rackley/22 LONG TERM...Rackley/Frazier AVIATION...WM/88 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.