Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 092312 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 712 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms can be expected today and Wednesday, mainly south of Pittsburgh, with the passage of a slow moving cold front. A secondary front on Thursday will bring isolated showers, but also will bring a drier, more refreshing air mass that will remain in place through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Using current obs and location of convection as a guide, the surface front has stalled right near the Mason-Dixon line. Showers and storms continue to fire along the boundary, although a rapid trend of weakening has commenced, as well as a decrease in coverage. Expect this trend to continue as sunset approaches. Latest hires models are showing things quieting down overnight. The front will likely continue to hang around the far southern CWA into at least Wednesday afternoon, before a relatively weak mid-level shortwave gives the boundary a southward push by evening. Thus, the Flood Watch will continue through the daylight hours as showers/storms with heavy rain may develop once again before the front clears the region. Rain coverage will again drop off Wednesday evening with the loss of heating, and the drier air mass will continue to make incremental overnight progress. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The front will have finally exited the region by Thursday morning. However, a more significant shortwave trough will drop down from the Great Lakes, quickly pushing a secondary cold front into the CWA. Instability will be sufficient for showers and a few thunderstorms, but overall limited moisture should keep coverage scattered with the boundary. A mostly pleasant night is in store for Thursday night as the sky clears and as dewpoints drop into the 50s. Building surface high pressure will keep Friday dry and comfortable. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended period will feature temperatures which will average out near to below climatology into early next week. Surface high pressure will provide dry weather for Saturday as a shortwave trough moves east of the region. The various models/ensembles show some shortwave energy reinforcing a northeast CONUS trough starting on Sunday, which will bring back chances of isolated to scattered showers Sunday into Tuesday. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Scattered showers with a cold front passage have pushed south of most terminals, mostly confined to locations south of I-70 such as MGW. The lack of dry air at the sfc may foster fog development tonight, with intensity dictated by the degree of overnight clearing, which will favor northern terminals. .Outlook... VFR conditions will return to most terminals Wednesday aftn/eve as the front finishes its southern push, dragging remnant storms with it. Another cold front will sweep through Thursday with additional areawide precip chances before a prolonged VFR period VFR returns under high pressure.
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&& .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for PAZ031-075-076. OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for OHZ068-069. WV...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for WVZ004-012-021- 509>512. && $$

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