Area Forecast Discussion
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000 FXUS61 KPBZ 270802 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 402 AM EDT Fri Apr 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Storm system passing to the southeast will bring showers to the southern ridges this morning. Cold and unsettled weather will return for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Southern stream storm system will clear the area by mid- morning, leaving a brief period of dry weather before shortwave trough reaches Ohio late this afternoon. Scattered showers are expected with this feature into the evening hours.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Weather will turn colder and remain unsettled through the weekend as large 500mb low drifts through the Great Lakes region Saturday and into Northern PA Saturday night. At the surface, a cold front, ahead of the upper level low, will move through the area late tonight and early Saturday morning. This front will bring widespread showers to the region. Most of the rainfall will be behind the boundary, with the large scale ascension and deep moisture. Scattered showers are expected to continue through Saturday in the cold air advection and with the passage of trough axis on the southern flank of the 500mb low. Strong cold air advection will continue Saturday night and into Sunday as the upper low drifts into Central NY. Another trough axis will rotate through Saturday night keeping in the risk for precipitation as well. Atmosphere looks to cool enough to support snow showers, mainly in the I-80 corridor and over the higher elevations. Cold pool will drift northward Sunday, toward the center of the upper low, as it moves eastward over NY. This will allow for a decrease in cloud cover from southwest to northeast and bring an end to the scattered rain/snow showers by early afternoon. Temperatures will be well below normal through the weekend. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A temporary pattern shift toward much warmer conditions will occur on Monday with the departure of the closed mid-upper low, and a rapid increase in low-mid level heights. Strong warm- advection, especially Monday afternoon should boost highs back to their seasonal average. Continued strong warm advection (850mb temps in the mid teens C) and large scale upper ridging should push temperatures well into the 70s, if not a few 80s on Tuesday, Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. The longevity of the warm air will hinge on the timing of a deep trough that will slowly emerge from a series of severe convective events expected across the southern Plains early next week. Right now have chance POPs as early as late Wednesday, but it could conceivably be Thursday or Friday before that frontal zone reaches the area. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry sfc high pressure, under troughing aloft will maintain VFR through the forecast period. Showers will enter the forecast this evening, but they look to be light and non-restrictive. OUTLOOK... Restriction, primarily MVFR, are likely to persist into early Sunday as cold upper low pressure slides across the area. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$

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