Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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275
FXUS66 KPDT 131714
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1014 AM PDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.UPDATED AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions with mostly
SKC/FEW250 will prevail through the period. Breezy conditions will
continue at DLS 10-14 kts with gusts beginning around 23Z to 20-25
kts. Winds will increase around 22-00Z at RDM/BDN/YKM 9-12 kts
with gusts between 15-20 kts. Elsewhere, winds will be variable
and below 12 kts. Bennese/90

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 147 PM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025/

SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...High pressure will continue
to build over the region and will persist through much of next
week. With the uptick in temperatures and the lack of overnight
low temperature recoveries, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
today through Monday for the Basin, Gorge, Yakima/Kittitas
Valleys, and the foothills of the northern Blues. HeatRisk shows a
marginal risk for meeting the advisory threshold both Saturday
and Monday, but with highs wavering around 100 degrees and little
reprieve in overnight temperatures.

Thermally driven winds through the Cascade Gaps will occur Sunday
causing winds to increase. Models show the temperature difference
across the Cascades will lead to 20-25 mph sustained winds through
the Gorge and Kittitas Valley with 50-70% of the ensembles in
agreement and 50-70% of the ensembles in agreement the Kittitas
Valley could see gusts as high as 40 mph while the Gorge will see
60-80% probabilities of 25-30 mph gusts. Even with the uptick in
temperatures over the weekend and winds through the Cascade Gaps,
fire weather concerns remain elevated, or at moderately high risk
due to the hot and dry conditions.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Models are showing quite
a bit of disagreement with the incoming next system. Mainly
beginning Wednesday and after. There is however, agreement that
there will be a pattern shift with many of the models showing
either a shortwave trough sweeping across the northern portion of
the region or benign westerly flow. The primary tell will be
dependent on the depth of the track the trough takes. As of now it
shows we will remian dry and the track of the system will be a
bit to the northeast. However, confidence in the forecast after
Wednesday is low.

If the trough digs farther south, models and ensembles are in
agreement that this will bring with it a change in prevailing
wind direction with prevailing winds shifting to the north then to
the east which will become a major concern for boots on the
ground at wildfire incidents. This track will also allow for the
insurgence of moisture from the south that will lead to the
likelihood of thunderstorms moving across central OR and the
eastern mountains. Bennese/90

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT 101  67  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALW 100  71  96  65 /   0   0   0   0
PSC 104  69  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
YKM 101  69  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
HRI 104  69  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  98  68  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  98  56  94  50 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  95  63  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  97  60  95  56 /   0   0   0   0
DLS 101  71  91  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for ORZ041-044-507.

WA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for WAZ024-026>029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...90
LONG TERM....90
AVIATION...90