Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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FXUS61 KPHI 171750
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
150 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure was located in southern Quebec and northern New
England early this morning. It is forecast to lift slowly
northeastward. Another area of low pressure was located in
Wyoming and Colorado early this morning. The low is expected to
progress eastward and it should pass through our region on
Thursday morning. High pressure is anticipated to follow for the
period from Friday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No changes so far to the forecast for this afternoon except add
in a little more snow showers/flurries in the forecast for
portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey as we
are getting reports of some flurries at times.

Otherwise, cool and breezy conditions will prevail with
isolate/scattered showers moving into the area this afternoon as
a short wave/vorticity impulse swings across the area around the
large mid/upper low to our north. Winds will continue to gust 20
to 30 mph at times out of the west to northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered showers quickly diminish in the evening with the
passage of the shortwave and loss of heating. Also, as the
center of the upper low pushes slightly to the north and east
away from the area this will help lead to a general clearing
trend across southern portions of the forecast area. Temps will
be chilly...lows generally in the mid 30s from the I-95 corridor
S/E with upper 20s to low 30s farther N/W...coldest across the
southern Poconos.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
We should be under the influence of weak high pressure on
Wednesday as an area of low pressure begins to work its way up
the Ohio River Valley. We are anticipating dry weather
conditions for Wednesday with highs mainly in the 50s and lower
60s in our region.

The low is expected to move across Pennsylvania on Wednesday
night before transferring off the New Jersey coast on Thursday
morning. Rain should overspread much of our region on Wednesday
night and it is forecast to linger into Thursday. Rainfall
amounts are expected to be relatively light, generally up to one
or two tenths of an inch.

The low is forecast to strengthen as it moves northeastward on
Thursday and Friday. Conditions are expected to become breezy at
that time.

High pressure is anticipated to build into our region from the
northwest for the weekend. The air mass should bring slightly
below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...Mainly VFR with broken deck 4-5 kft. Some scattered
showers will be around in the afternoon with the best chances
for these affecting any TAF sites being at KRDG, KABE. Winds
west 10-15 knots gusting 20-30 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR with clouds diminishing south to north.
Winds diminish to around 10 knots in the evening.

Outlook...
Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday night and Thursday...Conditions possibly lowering to
MVFR and IFR in rain.

Thursday night through Saturday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect...west winds will ramp back up again
heading into the day Tuesday as the pressure gradient
strengthens with SCA conditions expected for all the waters.
Seas will come down a bit from current wave heights but will
remain elevated at 4 to 6 feet through Tuesday.

For Tuesday night, SCA remains in effect through 10z Wednesday
as gusts to near 25 knots continue through the
night...especially over the ocean waters.

Outlook...
Wednesday morning...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our
ocean waters off New Jersey for lingering westerly gusts to 25
knots.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...No marine
headlines are anticipated.

Thursday afternoon through Friday morning...West to northwest
wind gusts of 25 to 30 knots are expected.

Friday afternoon through Saturday...No marine headlines are
anticipated.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>453.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ430-431-
     454-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Fitzsimmons
Short Term...Fitzsimmons/Robertson
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Iovino
Marine...Fitzsimmons/Iovino



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