Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
433 FXUS61 KPHI 121804 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 204 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A very warm and humid airmass will persist over the region into next week. Several disturbances will move through the area over the course of the week, generating scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. A cold front is on pace to cross through Monday night into Tuesday, with high pressure becoming more dominant toward the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Another round of diurnally driven convection is possible into the early evening. The best low level convergence and synoptic scale lift is west of our region over central PA, MD and VA. So the highest chances for our region will be west of the fall line. Storm motions, like yesterday, are expected to be very slow, resulting in a marginal (1 out of 4) risk for localized flash flooding. Tonight will be similar conditions to the last two nights, with continued onshore flow, resulting in another round of low clouds. Fog will be possible at the coast, but for the most part this looks like more of a low cloud set up than a fog set up. As the main trough inches closer to our area on Sunday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase slightly. For the most part, though the day, it appears as if convection will stay west of our region.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough will be moving into the Great Lakes, allowing stronger southwesterly flow to overspread into the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast regions. Although the best forcing will be displaced to our north and west, the atmosphere should destabilize sufficiently with the mild temperatures and high moisture content in place. SPC maintains the MARGINAL risk for severe weather on Sunday over our western most counties, where best atmospheric parameters overlap with the better forcing. Outside of the MARGINAL risk, more in the way of garden variety storms are possible, although most areas near and especially east of the I-95 urban corridor and towards the coast should remain dry into the evening. Highs will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s with heat indicies in the low to mid 90s. Convection should taper off once again rather quickly with the loss of diurnal heating into Sunday night, however a few showers or pockets of heavy rain may make the trek into eastern Pennsylvania. Another mild and muggy night is expected with lows similar to those on Saturday night. On Monday, the upper trough will move into the Eastern US but will be weakening as it approaches. Although, the atmospheric forcing will be closer to our area, the upper level support will not be as strong as it will be on Sunday. This should keep the overall nature of the potential for severe weather at bay. However, with strong destabilization and some better forcing, shower and thunderstorm activity will be more widespread compared to Sunday, with PoPs in the 50-80% range. Although, the severe weather potential does not appear to be significant, we can`t rule out a few strong to severe storms in the afternoon into the evening hours with the cold front tracking across the area late Monday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Highs will mainly be in the 80s with lows in the 60s/70s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... For the long term period, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with the evolution of the pattern. The cold front that tracks through on Monday night will slow down and virtually stall over or just south of the region on Tuesday while washing out. With remaining surface convergence nearby, this may cause another round of isolated showers and thunderstorms to occur on Tuesday and/or Wednesday. By mid week, it does seem that Canadian high pressure will try to take control over the Northeast while building into the Mid-Atlantic, suppressing any widespread shower and thunderstorm activity further south. However, considering it is mid-July after all and the airmass really doesn`t change all that much in wake of the dying front, occasional rounds of convective showers and storms are possible each afternoon. Another trough and frontal boundary appear to approach later in the week, especially by Friday. Long story short, we should see lower coverage of convection Tuesday and Wednesday, then increasing Thursday and especially Friday. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s daily, where heat indicies may reach close to or top 100 in some spots. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through 00Z...Primarily VFR, though may see occasional MVFR ceilings with lower clouds. For the most part, it appears that the storms should stay west of the TAF sites. However, think storm activity could get close to KABE as it is dissipating, so have a mention of VCTS close to 00Z. Tonight...Most places should start VFR, but expect low clouds to develop once again, generally centered within a few hours of 06Z. The set up looks more favorable for low clouds than fog, except near the coast, including KACY, where both the lowest ceilings and lowest visibility are likely to occur. By 09Z, expect most locations to have IFR conditions. Winds remain light (5kt or less), generally favoring the southeasterly direction, but could be variable at times. Sunday...Once low clouds and fog dissipate, which should be by 15Z for most locations, but may linger through 18Z for KACY, will see a return to VFR conditions. There is a chance for storms to approach the TAF sites late in the day (near or after 21Z). Outlook... Sunday Night through Wednesday...Overall, VFR conditions. However, afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA may result in brief periods of sub- VFR conditions daily. Sub-VFR conditions are also possible overnight due to low clouds and fog, but uncertainty remains on this potential, so confidence is low.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE... Winds and seas should stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines expected. Winds generally remain less than 15 kt with seas around 2-3 feet. Showers and thunderstorms are possible daily, primarily in the afternoon and evening hours, with the greatest probability of showers and storms being on Monday. Rip Currents... Today, there will be an increasing easterly flow first at 5 to 10 mph, increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Breaking waves will be as high as 2 to 3 feet. This along with a medium period southeast swell will result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore, and a LOW risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at Delaware Beaches. On Sunday, winds will be out of the southeast at around 10 mph with breaking waves around 1 to 2 feet. This combined with a lower southeast swell and lower wave heights results in a LOW risk for the development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches. Rip currents occur often in the vicinities of jetties and piers and the speed of the currents are generally maximized at low tides. For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/RCM/Staarmann NEAR TERM...Johnson SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann LONG TERM...DeSilva/Staarmann AVIATION...Johnson MARINE...Johnson/Staarmann