-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
422
FXUS61 KPHI 261607
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1207 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate through the weekend resulting in
tranquil and comfortable conditions. High pressure will then
slide offshore on Monday bringing the return of the humidity
before a low pressure system and cold front approaches the area
on Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Front has cleared the area, and dewpoints are generally much
lower than 24 hours ago, with many areas down into the 50s.
Some mid and high clouds continue to linger across southern
parts of the area as the front slows to our south, but northern
areas look quite sunny today. Dew points will remain in the 50s
for most of the area, except 60s southern Delaware/Maryland and
coastal NJ, with highs rebounding back into the 80s. Overall
close to the best we can hope for at this time of year.

The sea breeze should start to fire shortly and will push inland
and start to push towards the west by mid day. However the
temperature differences aren`t high enough to cause the boundary
to race inland nor would is it expect to reach PA.

Tonight high pressure will remain, with light winds and clear to
partly cloudy skies. Lows in the 50s northwest, 60s elsewhere.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Little changes have been made to the short term period as the
upper ridge builds to our west and surface high pressure holds
firm influence over the region through the weekend. This will
yield temperatures around average with highs in the 80s to
around 90 and lows in the 60s to around 70. Skies will be mostly
clear throughout, with Sunday featuring a bit more clouds
compared to Saturday. Overall, it is shaping up to be a pretty
pleasant weekend for late July as humidity levels will be in the
comfortable range as dew point temperatures will be limited to
the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There are two main features that will need to be monitored
through the long term period.

First, is a mid-upper trough will stall over the northwest
Atlantic and cut-off in the upper flow over the weekend. By
Monday, the low will deepen allowing a surface low to develop
and retrograde to the northwest back over southern New England.
All of the global guidance keeps this low positioned between
Montauk and Cape Cod, however NAM guidance is persistent with
positioning the low off our coast. Considering this is an
outlier compared to other guidance suites, have discounted it at
this time. So, for now Monday looks to feature more clouds than
sun with a slight chance of a shower near the coast. However,
if the position of the low meanders closer to our coastline,
more in the way of clouds and showers is certainly plausible.

The second feature is an upper trough that will be approaching
from the west around mid-week which ultimately may have a more
widespread impact across our region. Although the actual low
pressure system and cold front don`t look to pass by our region
until the Wednesday- Thursday timeframe, showers and storms will
be possible beginning as early as Tuesday.

Temps for the long term period will be seasonable for the most
part. However, as surface flow becomes more southerly as the
position of the high shifts offshore, this will usher in the
return of a more humid airmass for much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today... VFR. North to northeast winds 5-10 knots for the
morning, becoming northwest during the afternoon. Sea/bay
breeze may affect KACY/KMIV. High confidence overall.

Tonight...VFR expected. Winds becoming light and variable at
times but overall with a northerly component. High confidence.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR expected. A slight chance of a
thunderstorm on Tuesday, otherwise, no significant weather
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain sub-SCA thru tonight. Dry conditions
expected with northerly winds and a few gusts up to 20 kts this
morning, diminishing below 10 kts this afternoon and tonight,
while shifting southerly this afternoon and then westerly later
tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday night...No marine headlines expected.
Fair weather. Winds will range between 5-15 kt with seas around
2-3 feet.

Monday through Tuesday...No marine headlines expected. A chance
of showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds will generally
range between 15-20 kt with seas around 3-4 feet.

Rip Currents...

Today...North-northeast winds around 5-10 mph will become
southerly in the afternoon. Breaking waves around 1-2 feet with
a 7-9 second period. This results in a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents for both the Jersey Shore
and Delaware Beaches.

Saturday...Similar wind conditions, breaking wave heights and
swell periods are expected on Saturday. For this reason, have
maintained a LOW risk for rip currents for both the Jersey Shore
and Delaware Beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/RCM
NEAR TERM...Deal/RCM
SHORT TERM...DeSilva/Johnson
LONG TERM...DeSilva/Johnson
AVIATION...DeSilva/RCM
MARINE...DeSilva/RCM