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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 192328
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
728 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves across the region tonight, then continues to
track south and east of the region through the weekend. High
pressure builds in from the west and will be over the area into the
middle of next week. A cold front passes through on Wednesday,
followed by high pressure to close out the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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First batch of light showers have reached the coastline and will
move offshore over the next few hours. Additional rounds of
light showers can be expected overnight. Otherwise, overcast
through the rest of tonight as weak onshore flow funnels in
moisture under an inversion. Rainfall amounts up to two tenths
of an inch are possible, so not expecting anything impactful
overall. Can`t rule out some patchy fog tonight, especially
along the coast and within the higher elevations of NW NJ and
the southern Poconos. Temperatures overnight won`t drop too
much, hovering in the mid to upper 40s.

The cold front moves offshore tomorrow morning, and shower
chances end within the coastal plain by the late morning. Skies
should clear out relatively quickly as dry air moves in, and we
will see the sun for the first time in days. It will be a much
welcomed sight, and the afternoon looks rather nice with mostly
sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Dry conditions for the local area for the Short Term period. The
cold front continues to track to the south and east of the Mid-
Atlantic through the weekend, but the tail end of the front will
extend back through the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast. High pressure
builds over the region for the weekend and start of the new work
week. Low pressure develops on that old front and will begin to push
the front back north as a warm front, but the system will stay well
south of the region, and any rainfall on Sunday will stay south of
Delaware.

Chilly temperatures in place. Highs will be in the upper 50s to
around 60 on Sunday, and then in the low to mid 60s on Monday. Lows
generally in the 30s to low 40s. There may be some patchy frost in
the southern Poconos late Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Elongated high pressure along the East Coast slides out to sea
Tuesday through Tuesday night. Low pressure approaching from the
west will drag a cold front through the region Tuesday night through
Wednesday, bringing at least a chance for area-wide showers across
the region during that time, though will also carry likely PoPs for
areas north and west of the I-95 corridor.

Temperatures moderate to near normal levels ahead of this front with
highs generally in the mid and upper 60s. Behind the passage of the
cold front, cold air advection will be underway, and highs drop back
into the upper 50s and low 60s Thursday before rebounding on Friday.

One thing to look out for is the potential for frost development
late Monday night and Tuesday morning, mainly for the southern
Poconos and far northwest New Jersey. Lows will drop into the low to
mid 30s with light winds and Max RH values around 70 percent. Will
carry patchy frost for those areas.

Lows Wednesday night and Thursday night will drop into the 30s for
most areas. It is too soon to determine if conditions will promote
frost development.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas...

Tonight...Mostly MVFR ceilings this evening lowering into the
IFR range. Many sites will likely hover closely around the
MVFR/IFR range for several hours overnight, but IFR restrictions
at times are expected to occur. Rain will generally be light
for areas that do see showers, so not expecting much in terms of
visibility restrictions. Have higher confidence in reduced
visibility at KACY where guidance continues to point at the
potential for some marine fog coming onshore in addition to the
scattered showers. Winds out of the south/southeast around 5 kt,
becoming west/northwesterly late tonight once the cold front
moves through. Moderate confidence overall, low confidence on
marine fog development.

Saturday...MVFR CIGs to start, lifting to VFR by the late
morning as skies clear out. MIV/ACY will be slower to improve.
West/northwest winds around 10 kt with some spots seeing gusts
near 20 kt. Moderate confidence overall.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...VFR conditions until Tuesday
night, then possible sub-VFR conditions in SHRA Tuesday night and
Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all ocean zones through
tonight as seas will be around 5 to 6 feet. On the Delaware Bay,
no marine headlines are expected. Some marine fog is possible.
Will wait to see how things develop before issuing a Marine
Dense Fog Advisory. Periods of showers likely at times for
tonight and tomorrow morning.

For tomorrow, no marine headlines expected anywhere as seas will
be around 3 to 4 feet and winds out of the west/northwest around
10-20 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday...Tranquil conditions for most of
the new week, then VSBY restrictions in showers Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Sub-SCA conditions Saturday night through Tuesday
night, and then potential SCA conditions Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Spotty minor tidal flooding was observed within some of the
back bay communities of Ocean County, NJ and Sussex County, DE
this morning. Some minor tidal flooding remains possible through
tomorrow morning around high tide within Barnegat Bay. Tidal
flooding is not expected oceanside for any communities.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/MJL
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL/MPS
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...