Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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321 FXUS61 KPHI 201025 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 625 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift across northern New Jersey and the Poconos this morning. It will be followed by a cold front for the region this afternoon. Weak high pressure will overspread the area tonight and lat into Monday. Another slow moving disturbance will move in Monday night and linger across the area into Wednesday. High pressure will return to the scene for Thursday and remain into the beginning of next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The warm front has lifted across the area this morning as an area of low pressure continues to move across eastern Canada. Behind the front, winds have shifted to the south, and the dense fog has dissipated. Therefore the Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire. There will still remain some areas of light fog and drizzle for a couple of hours, along with low clouds and isolated showers. The low clouds, fog, and drizzle will continue to lift and dissipate through the morning hours, and later this morning the clouds are expected to break and some sunshine will likely return across the area. As the sunshine returns, temperatures will warm across the area, with everyone reaching several degrees above normal. With the warming temperatures, instability will develop across the area. Meanwhile, a cold front will be approaching the area later this afternoon. A weak short wave/vorticity impulse will slide across the area later today in conjuction with the cold front. This will likely lead to a broken line of showers, with a few thunderstorms possible. While severe weather is not expected with only marginal instability and shear, some gusty winds and heavy rain could be possible if any thunderstorms do develop. Even outside of any convection, winds will likely still gust 15-20 mph today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/... The cold front will be crossing the area early in the evening, with any showers or thunderstorms weakening and likely dissipating as they move eastward and offshore. Once the front moves offshore, dry weather will prevail for the remainder of the night and skies will begin to clear out some. Winds will become lighter overnight, but may not go completely calm everywhere. Where winds do lighten up the most and skies clear out the most, there could be some patchy areas of fog, especially where any rain falls during the day. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Good weather to begin the long term as weak high pressure will settle across the region. Skies on Monday will be partly to mostly sunny and seasonable temperatures are expected with highs mostly mid/upper 70s. Another period of unsettled and showery conditions is expected beginning Monday night and it will likely carry on into the middle of the week as another upper short wave and a weak surface feature will affect the area. The arrival of the system will feature showers moving in from the west overnight Monday and into Tuesday with a few tstms possible as a warm front brings more moist and milder air to the region. The chances for showers and afternoon tstms continue Tuesday and also Wednesday as the system will be slow to move through the area. A cold front on Wednesday will sweep the system away allowing more high pressure to arrive for late week. This late week period should be dry for the most part and the good weather should carry into Saturday as well. Temperatures will mild though the period with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s in many areas. Cooler temps expected close to the shore and over the southern Poconos. Some of the models are showing another wet pattern possibly beginning as early as Sunday and into Monday. Too early to be certain about this though, keep the forecast in mind when making your Memorial Day plans. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Today...Conditions will vary between VFR, MVFR, and IFR early this morning now that the warm front has lifted across the area. Later this morning, low level mixing will continue to help scour out the low clouds. All TAF sites should make a return to VFR by late this morning into this afternoon. A cold front will move across the area later this afternoon, bringing the chance for scattered showers or an isolated thunderstorm. We have inserted SHRA into the TAFS, but have kept reduction to visibilities out at this time as we are not confident on any reductions to take place. Also, we have left out thunderstorms from the TAFS as the chance is small for thunder to occur at this time. Winds have switched or will switch to the south to southwest behind the warm front. Winds will be 5-10 knots through today, with gusts of 15-20 knots likely to develop by this afternoon as daytime mixing begins to take place. Winds will begin to turn more southwest or westerly late in the afternoon as the front and showers move across the area. Tonight...The cold front will continue to move offshore and any showers will move offshore as well. Behind the cold front, winds will become west to northwest. Any locations that have their winds become light overnight and have clear skies develop could have some patchy fog develop. This may be more likely for RDG, MIV, and ACY, especially if any showers move across the area. Outlook... Monday...VFR expected. Monday night thru Tuesday night...Sct showers and tstms with sub-VFR conditions possible. Wednesday...VFR with slgt chc for a shower or tstm. Wednesday night thru Thursday...VFR expected. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory on the Atlantic Ocean remain in place as seas could build back to 5 feet as the southerly flow could help build seas back to 5 feet. Winds on the ocean could gust near 25 knots during the day as well as southerly flow increases ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas should lower back below 5 feet later this evening and winds should fall below 25 knots as a cold front moves across the area, so the advisory will not be extended at this time. The Dense Fog Advisory on the waters will remain in place at this time, although with the southerly flow and showers across the waters, visibilities may improve through the morning into this afternoon. Outlook... Monday...Sub-SCA with fair weather. Monday night thru Tuesday night...Sub-SCA with scattered showers and tstms Wednesday thru Thursday night...Sub-SCA with fair weather. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for ANZ450>453. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Robertson Short Term...Robertson Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Robertson/O`Hara Marine...Robertson/O`Hara

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