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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 281324
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
924 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move eastward across our region today,
followed by high pressure for tonight into Sunday. The high is
forecast to merge with a larger area of high pressure over the
western North Atlantic and it should continue to influence our
weather from Sunday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaching
from the northeast is expected to arrive on Tuesday night with
another area of high pressure anticipated in its wake for
Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front is anticipated to arrive
from the northwest on Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Morning update...

The previous forecast remains on track with mainly just some minor
tweaks to PoPs with this update. Renewed convective development is
already underway towards the Poconos and Lehigh Valley as the mid-
level closed low approaches. Shower and storm activity will remain
most widespread across the north with coverage steadily decreasing
further south. Some locally heavy rain as well as a couple of strong
to marginally severe storms remain possible, again mainly across the
north and mainly before mid afternoon. Previous discussion follows...

The core of a closed low that is forecast to gradually weaken
slides across our area through about the early afternoon hours.
This feature will drive our sensible weather today.

As the core of the closed low moves across our area, colder air
aloft with temperatures of -15C to -17C at 500 mb slides
overhead. This will result in a period of steepening low to mid
level lapse rates. Forcing for ascent associated with the trough
aloft combined with decent cooling aloft will result in an
increase in some showers and even some lower topped thunderstorms.
Looks like the most widespread showers/thunder through about
the early afternoon hours looks to be mainly north and west of
I-95. Farther south and east, less forcing should result in more
isolated/scattered activity. Given the colder 500 mb temperatures,
some small hail is possible in any of the stronger convective
cores later this morning into the afternoon. Some drier air
around 850 mb on the model forecast soundings combined with
steepening low-level lapse rates, may result in locally gusty
winds with some of the stronger convective cores. There should
be plenty of cloud cover across much of the area through the
early afternoon as the trough aloft moves through, then clouds
and the convection will wane by late afternoon as the air mass
stabilizes and drier air starts to work in behind an initial
cold front. Temperatures will be held down some due to the
clouds and also the development of showers/thunder, with highs
topping out into the mid to upper 70s for most places.

As the upper-level low exits the region, a secondary cold front
looks to move through tonight. This front will usher in more
drier air along with a light breeze from the north- northwest.
The sky is anticipated to become mostly clear across much of the
area tonight, and temperatures will drop into the 50s by
daybreak Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A mid level ridge is forecast to approach from the west during
the period from Sunday through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface
high pressure is expected to slide eastward from Pennsylvania on
Sunday morning, merging with a Bermuda high for Sunday night
through Monday night.

We should transition from a variable wind on Sunday to a
southwesterly flow for Sunday night through Monday night. The
pattern will bring an increase in both heat and humidity. Highs
on Sunday are expected to favor the upper 70s and lower 80s with
dew point readings mainly in the middle and upper 50s. Maximum
temperatures on Monday are forecast to be mostly in the 85 to 90
degree range with dew points in the lower and middle 60s.

The ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface should
prevent any showers and thunderstorms from affecting our region
from Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A surface trough is expected to pass through our region on
Tuesday morning. While it is not anticipated to bring any
precipitation, it should cause the surface flow to veer toward
the west bringing additional warmth into our region. It appears
as though Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs
reaching the 90 to 95 degree range at most locations. Readings
should not get above the 80s at the coast and in the elevated
terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey. The westerly
flow is expected to keep dew point reading in the lower to
middle 60s, so heat index values are forecast to remain below
100.

The mid level ridge axis is expected to remain to our west and
there should be cyclonic flow over New England from Tuesday into
Wednesday. The pattern will likely help to push a back door
cold front southwestward through our region on Tuesday night.
Some low clouds may follow in its wake for Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. Highs on Wednesday will be noticeably lower
than those on Tuesday. Maximum temperatures are expected to
favor the lower and middle 80s. It should remain rather cool
right along the coast with an onshore flow. Readings there will
likely not get above the lower 70s.

The surface flow is forecast to veer from the east and
southeast on Wednesday to the southwest and west on Thursday as
a cold front approaches from the northwest. There is a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms in parts of eastern
Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey on Wednesday
evening. There is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms
on Thursday and Friday throughout our region due to the cold
front.

High temperatures will likely favor the 80s on Thursday and the
75 to 80 degree range on Friday in the wake of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...After some areas of lower CIGs early this morning, most
of the area has improved to prevailing VFR conditions. Some
showers and mostly afternoon thunderstorms are expected with the
most coverage mainly north and west of PHL. The showers/thunder
should become less numerous and dissipate by late afternoon.
Visibility restrictions will occur early this morning at some
terminals due to light fog, otherwise briefly due to
showers/thunder. As of now, VCTS was included at ABE and TTN
from later this morning into the early afternoon. Light and
variable winds becoming southwest to west 8-12 knots, then
northwest this afternoon. Low confidence with the flight
category change timing and coverage of thunderstorms.

Tonight...VFR. North-northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming
locally light and variable. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Variable wind 5 to 10 knots. High
confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR. Southwest wind around 10 knots. High
confidence.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Westerly wind around 10 knots. Medium to
high confidence.

Wednesday...MVFR ceilings are possible in the morning, with
improvement to VFR for the afternoon. Northeast to east wind 5
to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south. Medium confidence.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 550 AM, the Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic coastal
waters has been cancelled. The conditions are below advisory
criteria with just buoy 44065 just touching 5 foot seas at
times. It continues to be very marginal therefore it was
cancelled. The conditions therefore are expected to remain below
advisory criteria through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines are anticipated.

Rip currents...

The wind direction should favor the southwest and west today
along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey, increasing to 10 to
15 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be 2 to 3 feet with an
east to southeast medium period swell. The risk for the
development of dangerous rip currents should be mostly in the
MODERATE range.

A north to northeast wind 5 to 10 MPH is expected to veer to
the southeast around 10 MPH on Sunday. Breaking waves are
forecast to be 1 to 2 feet with an east to southeast medium
period swell. The risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents should be mostly in the MODERATE range for the beaches
along the New Jersey counties of Atlantic, Ocean and Monmouth on
Sunday. There should be a generally LOW risk for the beaches of
Cape May County, New Jersey and Sussex County, Delaware.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Iovino
Near Term...Gorse/O`Brien
Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Iovino
Aviation...Gorse/Iovino/O`Brien
Marine...Gorse/Iovino