Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 281324 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 924 AM EDT Sat May 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will move eastward across our region today, followed by high pressure for tonight into Sunday. The high is forecast to merge with a larger area of high pressure over the western North Atlantic and it should continue to influence our weather from Sunday night into Tuesday. A cold front approaching from the northeast is expected to arrive on Tuesday night with another area of high pressure anticipated in its wake for Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front is anticipated to arrive from the northwest on Thursday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Morning update... The previous forecast remains on track with mainly just some minor tweaks to PoPs with this update. Renewed convective development is already underway towards the Poconos and Lehigh Valley as the mid- level closed low approaches. Shower and storm activity will remain most widespread across the north with coverage steadily decreasing further south. Some locally heavy rain as well as a couple of strong to marginally severe storms remain possible, again mainly across the north and mainly before mid afternoon. Previous discussion follows... The core of a closed low that is forecast to gradually weaken slides across our area through about the early afternoon hours. This feature will drive our sensible weather today. As the core of the closed low moves across our area, colder air aloft with temperatures of -15C to -17C at 500 mb slides overhead. This will result in a period of steepening low to mid level lapse rates. Forcing for ascent associated with the trough aloft combined with decent cooling aloft will result in an increase in some showers and even some lower topped thunderstorms. Looks like the most widespread showers/thunder through about the early afternoon hours looks to be mainly north and west of I-95. Farther south and east, less forcing should result in more isolated/scattered activity. Given the colder 500 mb temperatures, some small hail is possible in any of the stronger convective cores later this morning into the afternoon. Some drier air around 850 mb on the model forecast soundings combined with steepening low-level lapse rates, may result in locally gusty winds with some of the stronger convective cores. There should be plenty of cloud cover across much of the area through the early afternoon as the trough aloft moves through, then clouds and the convection will wane by late afternoon as the air mass stabilizes and drier air starts to work in behind an initial cold front. Temperatures will be held down some due to the clouds and also the development of showers/thunder, with highs topping out into the mid to upper 70s for most places. As the upper-level low exits the region, a secondary cold front looks to move through tonight. This front will usher in more drier air along with a light breeze from the north- northwest. The sky is anticipated to become mostly clear across much of the area tonight, and temperatures will drop into the 50s by daybreak Sunday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A mid level ridge is forecast to approach from the west during the period from Sunday through Monday night. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is expected to slide eastward from Pennsylvania on Sunday morning, merging with a Bermuda high for Sunday night through Monday night. We should transition from a variable wind on Sunday to a southwesterly flow for Sunday night through Monday night. The pattern will bring an increase in both heat and humidity. Highs on Sunday are expected to favor the upper 70s and lower 80s with dew point readings mainly in the middle and upper 50s. Maximum temperatures on Monday are forecast to be mostly in the 85 to 90 degree range with dew points in the lower and middle 60s. The ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface should prevent any showers and thunderstorms from affecting our region from Sunday through Monday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A surface trough is expected to pass through our region on Tuesday morning. While it is not anticipated to bring any precipitation, it should cause the surface flow to veer toward the west bringing additional warmth into our region. It appears as though Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs reaching the 90 to 95 degree range at most locations. Readings should not get above the 80s at the coast and in the elevated terrain of the Poconos and far northern New Jersey. The westerly flow is expected to keep dew point reading in the lower to middle 60s, so heat index values are forecast to remain below 100. The mid level ridge axis is expected to remain to our west and there should be cyclonic flow over New England from Tuesday into Wednesday. The pattern will likely help to push a back door cold front southwestward through our region on Tuesday night. Some low clouds may follow in its wake for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Highs on Wednesday will be noticeably lower than those on Tuesday. Maximum temperatures are expected to favor the lower and middle 80s. It should remain rather cool right along the coast with an onshore flow. Readings there will likely not get above the lower 70s. The surface flow is forecast to veer from the east and southeast on Wednesday to the southwest and west on Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in parts of eastern Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey on Wednesday evening. There is a better chance of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday throughout our region due to the cold front. High temperatures will likely favor the 80s on Thursday and the 75 to 80 degree range on Friday in the wake of the cold front. && .AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...After some areas of lower CIGs early this morning, most of the area has improved to prevailing VFR conditions. Some showers and mostly afternoon thunderstorms are expected with the most coverage mainly north and west of PHL. The showers/thunder should become less numerous and dissipate by late afternoon. Visibility restrictions will occur early this morning at some terminals due to light fog, otherwise briefly due to showers/thunder. As of now, VCTS was included at ABE and TTN from later this morning into the early afternoon. Light and variable winds becoming southwest to west 8-12 knots, then northwest this afternoon. Low confidence with the flight category change timing and coverage of thunderstorms. Tonight...VFR. North-northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming locally light and variable. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Sunday...Mainly VFR. Variable wind 5 to 10 knots. High confidence. Monday...Mainly VFR. Southwest wind around 10 knots. High confidence. Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Westerly wind around 10 knots. Medium to high confidence. Wednesday...MVFR ceilings are possible in the morning, with improvement to VFR for the afternoon. Northeast to east wind 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast to south. Medium confidence.
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&& .MARINE... As of 550 AM, the Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic coastal waters has been cancelled. The conditions are below advisory criteria with just buoy 44065 just touching 5 foot seas at times. It continues to be very marginal therefore it was cancelled. The conditions therefore are expected to remain below advisory criteria through tonight. Outlook... Sunday through Wednesday...No marine headlines are anticipated. Rip currents... The wind direction should favor the southwest and west today along the coasts of Delaware and New Jersey, increasing to 10 to 15 MPH. Breaking waves are forecast to be 2 to 3 feet with an east to southeast medium period swell. The risk for the development of dangerous rip currents should be mostly in the MODERATE range. A north to northeast wind 5 to 10 MPH is expected to veer to the southeast around 10 MPH on Sunday. Breaking waves are forecast to be 1 to 2 feet with an east to southeast medium period swell. The risk for the development of dangerous rip currents should be mostly in the MODERATE range for the beaches along the New Jersey counties of Atlantic, Ocean and Monmouth on Sunday. There should be a generally LOW risk for the beaches of Cape May County, New Jersey and Sussex County, Delaware. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...Iovino Near Term...Gorse/O`Brien Short Term...Iovino Long Term...Iovino Aviation...Gorse/Iovino/O`Brien Marine...Gorse/Iovino

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