Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --380 FXUS61 KPHI 030120 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 920 PM EDT Sat Nov 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will dominate our weather into Tuesday. A warm front lifts north of our area during Monday, then a cold front crosses the region during Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure then returns by the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --As of 920 PM, a northerly breeze is hanging on in some areas while decoupling has occurred in some other spots. This has resulted in varying amounts of cooling thus far, however the wind should diminish some more everywhere through the overnight. Other than a touch of cirrus crossing parts of the area, a mainly clear sky is expected through the night. Made some tweaks to the hourly grids this evening based on the latest observations and trends. Otherwise, high pressure remains the dominant feature through Sunday as it builds even closer to our region resulting in very dry and tranquil conditions. With a mainly clear sky, light winds and dry air, conditions are favorable for efficient radiational cooling to take place for many places. As such, have gone on the lower side of guidance with low temperatures overnight. This means most areas outside of the immediate urban I-95 corridor and away from the coast drop into the 30s by daybreak Sunday. As the high shifts further east, winds will turn to northeasterly. However, even with a slight onshore component, the low level flow will likely be too weak to make much of a difference in dew points during the day Sunday. This results in very dry conditions with the relative humidity dropping into the 20-35 percent range for much of the area during the day. This cooler flow will keep temperatures near normal for one more day before a warming trend starts.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft will be across the region Sunday night through Monday. A continuation of fair weather thru the period with seasonable temps Sunday night and a bit above normal Monday. Skies will be mainly clear thru Monday before a return of low level moisture begins across the area. Winds will be mostly North to Northeast at 5 to 10 mph. For Monday night and Tuesday, low clouds will arrive for NJ/Delmarva and up into parts of ern PA as the return flow around the departing high sets up. We`ll probably have cloudy conditions Monday night and into Tue morning before a slow mix-out of the moisture happens Tue. Some spotty drizzle could occur along the DE/srn NJ shore areas if the moisture layer become thick enough and some local effects can cause some moisture convergence, not much confid in this attm. Temps will be above normal Mon night before taking off to well above normal (70s) for Tue. The warmer temps will have to wait for any low clouds to burn off however. A better chance for (less clouds and milder temps) for inland areas. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure well offshore Tue loses its influence on our weather by Wed. It is then mostly replaced by more high pressure which arrives from the Great Lakes by the end of the week. In between the systems, a weak cold front will cross the area. The timing of the front seems to be more later Wed night or Thu now, a change towards the slower side. We`ll keep the slight chc pops for Wed night and have low-end chance pops for Thu. for most of our CWA, we might have to wait until next weekend for a shot at any wetting rains. Temperatures will be above normal thru the period with well above for Tue/Wed when mid/upper 70s will be common across the area. Highs will scale back to the 60s Friday/Sat following the cold front. Lows will mostly be in the 50s Tue/Wed then 40s for Thu/Fri. Readings across the far N/NW will be a bit cooler than those numbers however. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...-- Changed Discussion --The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Tonight...VFR. North-northwest winds 5-10 knots diminishing some and becoming north-northeast to northeast, with winds even becoming light and variable/calm at some terminals. Moderate confidence. Sunday...VFR. Northeast winds 5-10 knots, becoming east-northeast or east later in the afternoon at some terminals. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Monday night through Tuesday night...Low clouds (MVFR) possible KACY/KMIV and perhaps into the Delaware Valley. Mostly VFR for KRDG/KABE. Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. A couple of showers possible.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MARINE... Winds and seas are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the day Sunday. Outlook... Tuesday night/Wednesday...There is a chance for some low-end SCA gusts and seas on the ocean waters. Wednesday night through Friday...Sub-SCA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Through Sunday...The relative humidity will recover through tonight along with winds on the lighter side. The minimum relative humidity values are then forecast to be in the 20-35 percent range across most of the region Sunday especially in the afternoon. The winds however on Sunday will be mainly out of the northeast at 5-10 mph. While conditions remain very dry and therefore keeping the fire danger high, we do not expect any significant fire spread danger due to the lighter winds. For information on burn restrictions, check with your state and local fire officials. && .CLIMATE... A record stretch (consecutive days) without measurable precipitation is in progress in Philadelphia. Currently at 35 days up to and including November 2. The previous record was 29 days from 1874. A record stretch without measurable precipitation is in progress in Georgetown, Delaware. Currently at 36 days up to and including November 2. The previous record was 34 days from October and November 2001. Wilmington, Delaware: Currently at 35 days up to and including November 2. The previous record was 34 days from January and February 1909. Trenton, New Jersey: Currently at 35 days up to and including November 2. Record is 38 days from April and May 1903. Record will be tied if we reach 1 AM (climate midnight) Wednesday morning (November 6). Record will be broken if we reach 1 AM Thursday morning (November 7). Atlantic City International Airport, New Jersey: Currently at 31 days up to and including November 2. Record is 34 days from August and September 1995. Record will be tied if we reach 1 AM (climate midnight) Wednesday morning (November 6). Record will be broken if we reach 1 AM Thursday morning (November 7). && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DeSilva/Wunderlin NEAR TERM...Gorse/Johnson SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...Gorse/Johnson/OHara MARINE...Johnson/OHara FIRE WEATHER...PHI CLIMATE...PHI