Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 220404 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1204 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain across the region overnight before starting to shift to the north on Monday. A cold front will cross the region on Tuesday. High pressure will return on Wednesday and persist through the end of the week. A developing coastal storm may impact the Mid Atlantic over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Clouds continued to linger over parts of eastern Pennsylvania around midnight, while the sky was mainly clear over northeastern Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. The clouds are expected to erode overnight. Temperatures will continue to drop with areas of frost and some sub-freezing temperatures in parts of the area. The Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories remain in place. The wind is forecast to be light and variable. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... High pressure continue to build to our south on Monday, then offshore by the afternoon. A return flow will develop across the area, which will allow temperatures to warm a few degrees from Sunday. Dry weather continues to be expected as low PW values will remain across the area and now strong short wave/vorticity impulses are expected. Winds will become gusty around 15-20 mph during the afternoon for some areas, but it will not be as windy as Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Monday night...The high moves offshore and to the northeast of the area. As the high pulls away, a weak warm front may develop and push northward through the region overnight. It doesn`t look like much on the models with no precipitation associated with it. Tuesday...the cold front arrives on Tuesday. Models continue to show a clipper-like system moving out of Canada and across the Great Lakes before reaching our area on Tuesday. It`s a pretty fast moving system and the front quickly makes its way through the region. Still not seeing much moisture with the frontal passage and it could very well end up being dry. However, with another strong upper level trough crossing the region, I am inclined to continue the mention of some slight chance to chance pops across areas to the north and west of the I-80 corridor as a recent similar front was progged to be mostly dry and ended up being a fairly robust system moving through. Wednesday through Friday...Strong surface high pressure builds into our area on Wednesday and persists through the end of the work week. We should remain nice and dry through the period. The bigger story is the return of colder air as it dips down from the north and settles over the eastern US through Friday. Windiest day looks to be Wednesday as the front pulls away from the area but it doesn`t look nearly as windy as Sunday was. Saturday and Sunday...models are continuing to show the potential for a strong coastal system to move up the eastern seaboard, bringing wind, rain, and potentially some snow (mainly higher elevations). One thing the models do not show is a good cold pool, which would help give more confidence to snow in the forecast area. So it may end up just being a cold rainstorm. Many of the details still need to worked out as the system develops and the track will play a crucial role as it has been moving close to and away from the coast over the past several model runs. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Overnight...VFR conditions will continue. Winds will become light and variable for some locations overnight. Otherwise, winds will become more west or southwest overnight around 5 knots. Monday...VFR conditions continue through Monday. Winds will become more southwesterly through the day around 5-10 knots. Some gusts around 15-20 knots are possible for some area during the afternoon. Outlook... Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light winds on Monday night, then west to northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts possible on Tuesday. Showers possible at KRDG/KABE with lower ceilings/visibilities possible. Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots possible. Wednesday night through Friday...VFR conditions expected. Light northwest to west winds overnight with speeds around 5 to 10 knots during the day. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory has been dropped for upper Delaware Bay, as wind speeds continue to diminish gradually. The advisory remains in effect until 4:00 AM for lower Delaware Bay and for our ocean waters. Once the Small Craft Advisory ends, conditions will remain below advisory levels through the day on Monday. Outlook... Monday night through Thursday...Winds start to pick up Monday night and may start to approach 25 knots. A cold front will cross the waters on Tuesday with a strong northwest flow behind it. Winds will increase starting on Tuesday and gusts above 25 knots will then continue through Thursday before starting to subside Thursday evening. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for much of this period. Friday...sub-advisory conditions are expected on the area waters. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for PAZ060-061-101-103- 105. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for PAZ070-071-102-104- 106. NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Monday for NJZ013-017>022-027. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for NJZ012-015-016. DE...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for DEZ001. MD...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Monday for MDZ008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ431-450>455. && $$ Synopsis...Meola Near Term...Iovino Short Term...Robertson Long Term...Meola Aviation...Fitzsimmons/Robertson/Meola Marine...Fitzsimmons/Robertson/Meola is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.