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603
FXUS65 KPIH 111928
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
128 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.SHORT TERM...
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High pressure remains in full control of the weather across eastern
Idaho. Aside from a few occasional high clouds streaking across the
sky, things will be mostly clear today, tonight and into the day on
Sunday. Temperatures this afternoon are already running above climo
for mid May with mid 60s to lower 70s observed across much of the
area. Tomorrow will be even warmer for most locations with some
spots in the Magic Valley potentially reaching 80. CAMs are void of
any precip potential today but tomorrow afternoon/evening there
could be a very isolated shower/tstm chance up around Island Park.
Otherwise, the region will be dry again on Sunday. Enjoy the warmth
and sunshine if you can. McKaughan

.LONG TERM...Mon through next Sat night
The fine weather period comes to an end Mon morning as two somewhat
vigorous shortwaves bring winds and precipitation to the forecast
area. One arrives during the day Mon and the other during the day
on Tue. Dry northwesterly flow for Wed keeps only the upslope
regions in the eastern/southeastern highlands with a minor threat
of precipitation, then the uncertainty kicks in strongly. The
break is right around 60 percent chance for a return to dry
weather with an upper level high over the northwest coast, and a
40 percent chance of a continuance of west conditions with another
trough. It continues at an approximate 50-50 split in the
clusters on a wet v. dry pattern beyond this point, so little
trust in deterministic guidance. Messick
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&&

.AVIATION...
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VFR conditions expected through the period with mostly clear skies
and light winds. A few high clouds will streak across the region
this afternoon but no impacts to aviation expected. McKaughan
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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A ridge of high pressure will bring drier and warmer conditions
to East Idaho for the weekend. High flows on area water ways are
expected to continue. The Portneuf and Blackfoot rivers remain
the water ways of concern, though there is some hope that
conditions may slowly be improving as water levels are likely to
slowly recede over the week ahead. McKaughan
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&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$