Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000 FXUS65 KPIH 020934 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 234 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...
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Today through Thursday. Dry weather should continue through midweek. A weak system crossing to our north will bring some clouds across northern areas, but no precipitation. A weakening low is still expected to pass to our south and east. At the moment, it appears we will should see increasing clouds especially south and east of the Snake Plain, but remain shower- free. The probability of a shower possibly in the mountains along the Utah border is very low, and we have chosen to not mention that in the consensus keeps any measurable precipitation across Utah and Wyoming. A warming trend is still on tap for the rest of the week. Keyes .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY... All good things must come to an end (at least when it comes to wx), as high pressure breaks down and surrenders control to a more active pattern starting this weekend. For a third day the GFS and GFS- dominated ensemble clusters remain the most progressive in ejecting the first shortwave inland across the nrn Rockies Sat afternoon/eve with rain/snow showers, while the ECMWF/Canadian-dominated ensemble clusters continue to hold off until Sat night/Sun with the brunt of shower activity potentially going south of our CWA. Both scenarios are plausible, with the question of whether we`ll squeak out with a final warm/dry day Sat in the balance, and potentially windy conditions both Sat/Sun as well. BUT, regardless of which scenario verifies, initial shower activity should be light with no significant airmass change or heavy precip until at least Mon, when the main low pressure trough comes crashing into the coast. The Mon- Tue period looks potentially quite wet and cooler. - KSmith
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High pressure will dominate our wx across SE Idaho throughout the week, with generally high forecast confidence in mostly clear/sunny skies, dry conditions, light winds, and very few impacts for aviation. Patchy dense fog this AM in the Teton Valley may occasionally dart into KDIJ through 15z/8am with brief reductions to IFR vsbys, with little overall support along high-res guidance. An increase in VFR cloud cover is possible Wed night/Thurs regionwide as a low pressure system passes to our south. Our next chance of precip/greater aviation impacts isn`t expected until Sat. - KSmith
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