Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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757 FXUS65 KPIH 151927 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 127 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES...
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- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms into the evening. Marginal risk of severe weather except for Slight Risk in the southeast corner. - Cooler and drier for Wednesday. - Warming trend into the weekend with any shower and thunderstorm development remaining isolated.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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Issued at 127 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Satellite imagery shows tight closed low dropping southeast through far western Montana and the ID panhandle this afternoon. Upper jet sagging south along with surface cold front will tap into slightly increased moisture availability pooled across East Idaho today. Radar shows weak convection already developed across the central mountains toward the Divide, and just along/south of the Utah border. Thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region through the remainder of the afternoon. Steep lapse rates, moderate to strong shear, and high downdraft CAPE indicate strong potential for gusts over 50 mph and isolated large hail, and most of East Idaho now under MARGINAL RISK for severe weather via SPC. Southern highlands on tap for strongest instability and steepest downdraft CAPE ahead of the frontal system, and SLIGHT RISK for severe weather in place generally south and east of Pocatello for better chances of wind gusts near/over 60 mph. Have added Gusty Winds and Small Hail mention for all thunderstorms today. Most storms will be dry given the relatively dry lower atmosphere, but a few storms may produce brief locally heavy rainfall, and recurring storms across the same areas could provide wetting rains over 0.10". Cold front associated with this feature drops south through the region late this evening through the overnight, decreasing convection. Wednesday still looks slightly cooler and drier across the region.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Issued at 127 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Overall flow pattern still turns quasi-zonal for Thursday through the weekend. Series of weak shortwave features shifting through the flow may be just enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms day-to-day over higher elevations. Models continue to fluctuate with these features with not much confidence in occurrence, and the Blend remains largely dry. Temperatures bounce back up into the upper 80s to lower/mid 90s by the weekend. With the semi-zonal flow and warmer temperatures, expect occasionally breezy afternoons as well.
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&& .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1209 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Hourly probability of thunderstorms in the NBM hourly output indicates a minor chance of TSRA that would rate for most airdromes a PROB30 group of varying intervals. Shortest is KSUN, then KBYI, with the longest for KDIJ. KDIJ has high enough probabilities during the afternoon for greater than 50 percent risk, so have for an interval at KDIJ a TEMPO group. TSRA ends from west to east, with KBYI ending prior to 16/00Z, and for KDIJ ending after 16/06Z. See no impact to VSBY or CIG, with the main issue being outflow wind and the TS hazards. There is the potential at all but KSUN for severe TSRA, which will mainly mean G50KT or more is possible. Conditions settle down in the late evening for light wind and unlimited CIG/VSBY. Not expecting a return of impactful weather for aviation interests on Wed. && .FIRE WEATHER...
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Issued at 127 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Dry cold front from a low in western MT will swing through late this afternoon and through the evening hours, bringing mainly dry thunderstorm activity through that period. Storm Prediction Center has put a part of the Caribou NF, in and around the Bear Lake Basin, in a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. There is another ring of marginal risk of severe thunderstorms that encompasses the rest of the ID-WY border and ID-UT border regions and most of the Snake River plain. The remainder is at risk of thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms are likely enough in that eastern half that a Red Flag Warning was issued for all of the Eastern Idaho Dispatch AoR and the southern Sawtooth NF. Things should calm down around midnight tonight, then Wed is expected to have much more stable conditions, higher humidity, including overnight recovery which has been terrible, and cooler temperatures. On Thu, warming and drying return, although not quite to the intensity of today and previous days. The warming and drying continues through the weekend. By Thu afternoon moderate to strong westerly flow aloft will start to reach the surface as instability increases. With more afternoon humidity getting below 15 percent, the risk of critical fire weather conditions may return by Thu, just for humidity and wind rather than thunderstorms.
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&& .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ410-411- 413-427. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMH LONG TERM...DMH AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick