National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 020934
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
234 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --Today through Thursday. Dry weather should continue
through midweek. A weak system crossing to our north will bring
some clouds across northern areas, but no precipitation. A
weakening low is still expected to pass to our south and east. At
the moment, it appears we will should see increasing clouds
especially south and east of the Snake Plain, but remain shower-
free. The probability of a shower possibly in the mountains along
the Utah border is very low, and we have chosen to not mention
that in the forecast...as consensus keeps any measurable
precipitation across Utah and Wyoming. A warming trend is still on
tap for the rest of the week. Keyes

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
All good things must come to an end (at least when it comes to wx),
as high pressure breaks down and surrenders control to a more active
pattern starting this weekend. For a third day the GFS and GFS-
dominated ensemble clusters remain the most progressive in ejecting
the first shortwave inland across the nrn Rockies Sat afternoon/eve
with rain/snow showers, while the ECMWF/Canadian-dominated ensemble
clusters continue to hold off until Sat night/Sun with the brunt of
shower activity potentially going south of our CWA. Both scenarios
are plausible, with the question of whether we`ll squeak out with a
final warm/dry day Sat in the balance, and potentially windy
conditions both Sat/Sun as well. BUT, regardless of which scenario
verifies, initial shower activity should be light with no
significant airmass change or heavy precip until at least Mon, when
the main low pressure trough comes crashing into the coast. The Mon-
Tue period looks potentially quite wet and cooler. - KSmith-- End Changed Discussion --

.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --High pressure will dominate our wx across SE Idaho throughout the
week, with generally high forecast confidence in mostly clear/sunny
skies, dry conditions, light winds, and very few impacts for
aviation. Patchy dense fog this AM in the Teton Valley may
occasionally dart into KDIJ through 15z/8am with brief reductions to
IFR vsbys, with little overall support along high-res guidance. An
increase in VFR cloud cover is possible Wed night/Thurs regionwide
as a low pressure system passes to our south. Our next chance of
precip/greater aviation impacts isn`t expected until Sat. - KSmith-- End Changed Discussion --

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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