Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000 FXUS65 KPIH 220846 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 246 AM MDT Thu Apr 22 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. An upper level trough will sweep through the region today and Friday. Rainfall/snowfall amounts look very light still, mainly affecting the central mountains into the northeast highlands. Expecting only a few hundredths of qpf and under an inch of snow from this system. An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening as well with some weak instability in place across the region. Expect breezy southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday but probably holding under wind advisory levels. We will see a brief break Friday night before our next system arrives Saturday. This is part of a much larger system that will affect our weather into next week. Models are showing some weak instability in place once again indicating that isolated thunderstorms are possible. This does look like a somewhat wetter system with around a tenth of qpf possible Saturday into Saturday night. 13 .LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday. Next week will start out cooler along with a decent chance of rain, mountain snow and even a few thunderstorms. Snow will be possible down to around 6000ft (if not a bit lower) at times, but any real accumulations on a daily basis should be limited to at/above 7000ft. It will be breezy through Tuesday especially across the Snake Plain and ridgetops. By Tuesday afternoon, the forecast gets a little murky again. The models, ensembles and cluster forecasts are pretty evenly split on what will happen with the low moving toward the Plains. One camp already has it heading into the Plains while the other holds it back closer to our side of the Rockies. The Blend of Models looks reasonable with the best chance of showers/storms closer to the Wyoming border. A strong ridge rebuilds across our area by Wednesday with a few lingering showers possible in the mountains especially along the Wyoming border based on the Blend forecast. If the strongest ridge scenario comes to fruition, we will be dry. The Blend brings a better chance of precipitation Thursday, similar to the GFS/weaker ridge idea. If the other camp (much stronger ridge) wins out, we will again be dry. BOTH forecasts are certainly plausible, so it`s difficult at this point to say which is the more likely forecast. Keyes && .AVIATION...A pattern change starts today with winds becoming South and West today, as a low drops across region. Winds of 15-25kts will impact BYI, PIH and IDA this afternoon and evening. Also, showers with a few possible thunderstorms will develop later in the afternoon and into this evening. At this point, it looks like VCSH/VCTS will be possible at all of our TAF sites, especially DIJ, PIH and IDA. Keyes && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

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