Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
588 FXZS60 NSTU 050126 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 226 PM SST Sat May 4 2024 .Short term... Latest satellite data shows convective clouds have gradually diminished in the area since this morning. Although showers have decreased, a lingering trough will hold the potential for flooding through the new week. GDI trends (Instability indicator) depicts high GDI values with the trough through at least Tuesday. This scenario suggests that the thunderstorms seen to the northeast will track towards the Islands starting tonight. However, model data seems to be overestimating possible flooding conditions due to satellite data focusing areas of moisture and Instability more east than anticipated. Will monitor later satellite trends to see how things play out. Furthermore, a low pressure system currently west of Savai`i will draw in moisture to it as it moves along the axis through Tuesday. This pattern will be another driver in bringing in moisture from the northeast. Expect widespread showers with a chance for thunderstorms for this time. .Long term... Model trends depicts the trough remaining in the area through the end of the forecast period. Moisture and convection will be centered more southwest of Tutuila on Tuesday as a ridge to the east strengthens. By Wednesday, another ridge to the west will build over the American Samoa Region, thus moisture of the territory. Numerous showers and a gentle breeze will hold for the long term forecast. .Marine... Current satellite data shows wave heights around 8 feet. Seas will briefly subside Sunday as winds weaken in the area. However, a large south swell will keep ocean conditions at least at a small craft advisory (8 feet and higher) through Monday night. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ TM