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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS65 KPUB 182104 CCA
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 PM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021

1)Isolated near critical fire weather concerns over the Spanish
Peaks region and Fremont County, as well as the San Luis Valley.

2)Strong cold front expected to pass over the region between 1-2PM
on Monday afternoon, bringing the potential of a flash freeze over
northern El Paso County and snow across the plains and eastern
mountains.

Meteorological Discussion:

The upper level closed low is well into Arizona and New Mexico, a
little bit further south than anticipated yesterday, which is
keeping the convective mountain showers more isolated than
scattered. Fair weather cumulus is being observed over the plains.

Northwesterly flow will remain over southern Colorado throughout the
overnight and into the early afternoon. Expect dry conditions
throughout the overnight and through the early afternoon before a
cold front reaches southern Colorado. Temperatures are expected to
be warmer tonight, with lows in the low to mid 30s over the plains,
the teens to 20s over the mountain valleys, and the single digits
over the mountains.

During the late morning and early afternoon tomorrow, some gusty
westerly winds may be observed in gap flow prone areas such as the
Spanish Peaks region and the Fremont County which will create near
critical fire weather conditions. There is higher confidence for
meteorological critical fire weather conditions over the San Luis
Valley throughout the afternoon, but recent precipitation will keep
the fine fuels in a non-critical status. Overall, no fire weather
highlights have been issued.

A strong cold front is expected to reach the region at around 1 to 2
PM Monday afternoon, which will bring drastically cooler
temperatures, strong north-northeasterly winds and snow. These
frontal passages generally move faster than what forecast models
predict, so we`ve moved the frontal passage time up by two hours as
compared to the models. At the leading edge of the cold front there
may be areas of blowing dust over the eastern plains, as wind gusts
up to around 40 mph form over dry areas, so limited visibility is
possible during the afternoon and evening. We are also concerned of
a flash freeze as the front passes overhead, which may create
hazardous travel conditions over northern El Paso County. We did
issue a Winter Weather Advisory from 3PM Monday through 2AM on
Tuesday morning due to the potential hazardous travel conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021

...Primary concern is potential for cold temperatures Tuesday
morning...

...Snow likely over parts of the region Monday evening into very
early Tuesday...

...Unsettled but warmer mid/late week, then very nice weekend...

...Fire Weather concerns return Sunday into early next week...

The main concern is the potential for cold temperatures occurring
across the forecast area Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will be
in the teens and lower 20s across nearly all of  the plains and
valleys. How cold it gets early Tuesday morning will be dependent on
how fast we clear out from the snow Monday night into early Tuesday
morning. ATTM believe most of the precip will be into KS by sunrise
Tuesday, but clouds may be slow to move out. For now, it appears
best chance of clearing will be across the Pikes Peak region and
this is likely where the coldest temperatures will occur. Readings
to near 10F may occur in N El Paso county

Snow is going to occur with this event. There is more than enough
cold air so the east slopes of the southern mtns and parts of the I-
25 corridor will see accumulating snow. Even the eastern plains may
see an inch or two across most areas. For now it appears the
heaviest snow will be on the east slopes of the Ramparts/Pikes Peak
and the east slopes of the Wet Mtns.

I do anticipate side roads will be quite icy for Tuesday mornings
commute in the Pikes Peak region. The main roadways will likely fair
better as crews will likely have time to treat/plow the main
roadways prior to the AM rush as the brunt of the snow will likely
be done with several hours prior to sunrise Tuesday.

Tuesday it will be cool and it will be breezy over the far eastern
plains. Overall it is not going to be a nice day.

Tuesday night and Wednesday warm frontogenesis is going to develop
over the region. We do not see this type of frontogenesis occur too
often over the higher terrain but all guidance is clearly showing
this occurring, especially at the 700 mb level. I do expect quite a
bit of clouds over the region Wednesday resulting front this
frontogenesis and we may see some light precip developing over the
plains Tues night into Wednesday. Temperatures will likely remain
cool Wednesday but will be several degrees warmer than Tuesdays max
temps.

Wednesday night we will see a better chance of showery precip
developing over the region as the front lift slowly north and better
mid level forcing moves over the region associated with a short wave
moving through.

Troughieness will linger over the region friday although low level
forcing will be negligible. This will allow for convective showers
to develop over parts of the region, especially across the high
terrain. It will be warmer on Friday.

For the weekend, it looks really nice and warm. Dry gusty southwest
winds will pick up Sunday, and Critical Fire Weather Conditions will
likely return to the region. Monday looks like a "synoptically
evident" Red Flag day across the region. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Apr 18 2021

KALS:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period over
KALS. There is a low end chance for fog development during the
overnight, but mid-level clouds should inhibit fog formation.

KCOS:

VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow early afternoon over
KCOS. A strong cold front is expected to pass overhead around 1300-
1400 accompanied by strong north to northeasterly winds, low clouds,
and rain and snow showers. MVFR and IFR conditions are possible
after the front passes by.

KPUB:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period for KPUB.
A cold front is expected to reach the terminal at around 1400-1500,
which could create blowing dust and lower visibility to MVFR and
IFR, but confidence is low at this time for that outcome. Strong
north to northeasterly winds are expected after the front passes
overhead.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Monday to 2 AM MDT Tuesday for
COZ081-082-084.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...SKELLY