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000
FXUS65 KPUB 010543
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1043 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

Currently...web cams and radar suggest snow showers still ongoing
across the srn Sangres and eastern San Juans at mid-afternoon, and
will include a mention of light snow for a couple more hrs late this
afternoon/early this evening, before activity fades away after
sunset. Overnight, skies will continue to clear, and with weakening
winds expect a fairly cold night at most locations, and high
mountain valleys may drop below zero by early Mon morning. On
Monday, upper low passes by to the south and should be a non-factor
in srn Colorado weather as upper level ridge begins to build over
the state. Most areas will see a modest warm-up by Mon afternoon as
mid-level heights/temps rise, though weakening winds and fairly
modest mixing will keep temp rise restrained to start the week.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

Monday night through Wednesday...

Upper-level ridging continues to build over the region as the upper-
level low continues to move away from the area. As a result dry and
warmer weather is expected through midweek. Afternoon highs are
expected to be in the 60s across the plains and upper 40s to mid 50s
in the high valleys both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Friday...

Our next weather maker is anticipated to move onshore over the
southern California coast on Wednesday, then propagate into the
Great Basin by Wednesday night, passing over Colorado on Thursday,
and into the southern Great Plains some time on Friday. Both
deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement on its
general timing and track, but there remains some relatively minor
differences. One outlier is the EPS (Euro ensemble), which continues
to keep the system farther south than the other guidance. That said,
the latest guidance (including the EPS) has generally trended
northward with the progression of this system. Even with the
northern trend, it still appears the entire region will have a
chance to see some precipitation, with the Continental Divide
possibly seeing snow showers starting as early as late Wednesday
night as some models do indicate. A majority of the guidance delays
the onset of precipitation until Thursday morning, however. The
precipitation is then anticipated to spread to the rest of the
region. This system continues to look relatively warm, resulting in
generally rain over the lower elevations, possibly mixing with snow
overnight, while snow is expected over the mountains. Moderate to
potentially heavy snow accumulations are possible over the mountains
with this system, so stay tuned. The system is then anticipated to
exit the region on Friday, but exactly when depends on the various
models.

Thursday`s highs are expected to be about 5 degrees cooler than
Wednesday region wide. The plains are anticipated to be another few
degrees cooler on Friday while the high valleys rebound slightly
from highs on Thursday.

Saturday and Sunday...

Models are in good agreement that a ridge builds over the region for
Saturday, but disagree in how long the ridge persists. The latest
GFS has the ridge continuing through at least Sunday, while the
ECMWF brings another upper-low through the region on Sunday. Thus,
there is high uncertainty in what transpires next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1041 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021

VFR conditions with dry weather expected across the TAF sites this
period, with winds expected to remain on the lighter side.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...CARLBERG
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ