Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000 FXUS65 KPUB 010543 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1043 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Currently...web cams and radar suggest snow showers still ongoing across the srn Sangres and eastern San Juans at mid-afternoon, and will include a mention of light snow for a couple more hrs late this afternoon/early this evening, before activity fades away after sunset. Overnight, skies will continue to clear, and with weakening winds expect a fairly cold night at most locations, and high mountain valleys may drop below zero by early Mon morning. On Monday, upper low passes by to the south and should be a non-factor in srn Colorado weather as upper level ridge begins to build over the state. Most areas will see a modest warm-up by Mon afternoon as mid-level heights/temps rise, though weakening winds and fairly modest mixing will keep temp rise restrained to start the week. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 300 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 Monday night through Wednesday... Upper-level ridging continues to build over the region as the upper- level low continues to move away from the area. As a result dry and warmer weather is expected through midweek. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the 60s across the plains and upper 40s to mid 50s in the high valleys both Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday night through Friday... Our next weather maker is anticipated to move onshore over the southern California coast on Wednesday, then propagate into the Great Basin by Wednesday night, passing over Colorado on Thursday, and into the southern Great Plains some time on Friday. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance are in good agreement on its general timing and track, but there remains some relatively minor differences. One outlier is the EPS (Euro ensemble), which continues to keep the system farther south than the other guidance. That said, the latest guidance (including the EPS) has generally trended northward with the progression of this system. Even with the northern trend, it still appears the entire region will have a chance to see some precipitation, with the Continental Divide possibly seeing snow showers starting as early as late Wednesday night as some models do indicate. A majority of the guidance delays the onset of precipitation until Thursday morning, however. The precipitation is then anticipated to spread to the rest of the region. This system continues to look relatively warm, resulting in generally rain over the lower elevations, possibly mixing with snow overnight, while snow is expected over the mountains. Moderate to potentially heavy snow accumulations are possible over the mountains with this system, so stay tuned. The system is then anticipated to exit the region on Friday, but exactly when depends on the various models. Thursday`s highs are expected to be about 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday region wide. The plains are anticipated to be another few degrees cooler on Friday while the high valleys rebound slightly from highs on Thursday. Saturday and Sunday... Models are in good agreement that a ridge builds over the region for Saturday, but disagree in how long the ridge persists. The latest GFS has the ridge continuing through at least Sunday, while the ECMWF brings another upper-low through the region on Sunday. Thus, there is high uncertainty in what transpires next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1041 PM MST Sun Feb 28 2021 VFR conditions with dry weather expected across the TAF sites this period, with winds expected to remain on the lighter side. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...PETERSEN LONG TERM...CARLBERG AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

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