Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 021141 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 640 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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A series of disturbances in west southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Carolinas through tonight, followed by a cold high pressure that will build over the region Friday through Saturday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 244 AM Thursday... Chilly with occasional rain today, shifting south and east tonight. The next round/wave of rainfall was already spreading eastward across the region this morning. The temperatures were chilly, but not cold enough for any wintry precipitation concerns. Wet bulb temperatures were in the mid 30s along the NC/VA border, with upper 30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Most guidance indicates occasional rain for our region through this morning. The rain is expected to slowly get shunted to the southeast this afternoon. This will favor the southern tier of counties this afternoon into the evening as the final wave of rainfall moves through the region. Chilly high pressure and CAA early this morning in the east favors continued CAD through the day in all areas. Expect temperatures to remain nearly steady this morning, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Rain is expected to end from the NW overnight. The steadier rain will be over the southern and eastern areas, then gradually sink southward and end overnight. The temperatures will hold nearly steady overnight with mid 30s to near 40 expected. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 244 AM Thursday... Very cold temperatures expected Friday night. The cold front will push offshore early Friday as a very cold high pressure over the Northern Plains builds east. The cold high will settle over the Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic states Friday night and early Saturday. Clearing, breezy, and chilly weather is expected Friday with highs in the 40s (near 50 south). It will be clear and very cold on Friday night with diminishing breezes. Lows will be in the upper teens to lower 20s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 340 AM Thursday... Saturday through Sunday night: Dry and cold weather is expected for Saturday with cold high pressure over the area. This will result in dry weather, with high temperatures generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. The surface high will quickly move to the east of the area and offshore Saturday night into Sunday, as a southern stream s/w quickly tracks across the Gulf Coast states. The associated main vort max is expected to pass well to the south of central NC and is fairly progresses, with lack of much if any phasing with an approaching northern stream trough until it`s well to the east of our area. Thus, expect any chance of rain/showers from this system will be fairly low and confined to the eastern half of central NC for Sunday. At this time will keep pops in the slight chance range, with all liquid expected if we do see any precip. High Sunday will be a bit tricky, and dependent on if we see any rain. For now will go with highs rebounding back into the 50s, after morning lows in the 20s. Lows Sunday night are expected to be in the 30s. Monday through Wednesday: Mid/upper level ridging is forecast to build into and across the area during this time frame, with a warming trend, with temps expected to be above normal with highs generally in the 60s (maybe a little cooler Monday, upper 50s to lower 60s), with lows in the 30s and 40s. While medium range models struggle with the overall pattern by mid next week, dry weather is still generally expected, with only a small threat for showers by very late Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Thursday... Adverse aviation conditions are expected today as several waves of rain move across central NC. LIFR to IFR CIGS with MVFR to IFR VSBYS are expected into tonight with periods of rain and fog. Outlook: IFR/LIFR CIGs will continue tonight with improvement to MVFR early Friday morning and eventually to VFR Friday. VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the outlook period, with the exception of a slight chance of rain Sunday.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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