Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 240551 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 150 AM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front will push southward through North Carolina early this morning. This front will settle across South Carolina today through Friday, as high pressure builds in from the northeast. This high will then move offshore by the weekend, resulting in a return to moist and unsettled weather.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1005 PM Wednesday... A slow moving cold front is currently pushing southward through the Mid Atlantic region this evening, and will move through central NC tonight. Several clusters of showers and storms in advance of the front remain tonight, with the most notable one across Davidson and Randolph Counties. This is where the best remaining instability resides, per the SPC meso page. There will continue to be a threat of flash flooding across the western Piedmont for the next several hours along this southward sinking cluster of storms, before nocturnal stabilization takes hold, resulting in more isolated convection until the front passes later tonight (similar to the coverage in the eastern half of the area now). Low temps tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Thursday and Thursday night, the sfc front should stall near or just southwest of our southern counties. Moisture pooling in vicinity of this feature should maintain mostly cloudy skies and a small threat for showers and possibly a thunderstorms, most probable during the afternoon hours. Otherwise northeast flow will temporarily usher a drier low level air mass into at least the northeast third of central NC. Potential for sfc dewpoints to lower into the upper 50s/around 60 from Raleigh north and east, and into the lower 60s in the NW Piedmont and the central Coastal Plain around GSB. Though afternoon temperatures will return to the mid 80s, the lower dewpoints will result in comfortable humidity levels. Much of the same Thursday night with more clouds SW and fewer NE. Under clear skies and calm wind regime, some of the cooler spots across the northern Coastal Plain into the northeast Piedmont should dip into the upper 50s/around 60 for overnight low temperatures. Elsewhere, min temps in the low and mid 60s will be common. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 330 PM Wednesday... Within relatively slow, blocked flow aloft across the CONUS during the medium range, the pattern over cntl NC will be dominated by a broad, re-loading trough centered over the GOM/Gulf coast states, and a downstream ridge extending across the top from the swrn N. Atlantic and cntl/ern Caribbean Sea nwwd across the upr Midwest. The (generally sly) flow between these two features will direct a plume of tropical moisture characterized by precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2.5" from the nwrn Caribbean Sea nwwd across the sern U.S., especially by early next week. At the surface, an initially cooler and drier continental air mass, accompanying modifying surface high pressure off the srn middle Atlantic coast, will extend wwd into NC on Fri. This ridge will then drift east of Bermuda through the weekend, with progressively modifying return flow throughout the sern U.S. through early next week. (Possibly tropical) low pressure over the GOM this weekend would likely meander slowly over the nrn GOM and Gulf coast states through the period owing to the ridge downstream, and over the top. Some "ring of fire" convection may skirt the wrn and srn Piedmont late Fri-Fri night, in a developing warm/moist advection regime directed there, with otherwise continued drier and more stable conditions in closer proximity to the offshore (deep layer) ridging. This regime will then likely edge ewd, with an associated good chance of showers and storms across cntl NC, on Sat. There may be a relative lull in convective probabilities/coverage, in briefly more pronounced ridging aloft downstream of the GOM low pressure, on Sun. It will then become increasingly unsettled, with high chance to likely probabilities of showers/storms, maximized with diurnal heating, Memorial Day through the middle of next week. High temperatures are likely to be near to slightly above normal, though modulated/hindered by convection/clouds especially early-mid next week, while low temperatures are likely to be a category or three above normal for the same reason. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 150 AM Thursday... The scattered showers and storms over central NC this past evening have largely diminished, although a brief shower producing MVFR conditions is possible 06z-08z at RWI. Otherwise, VFR cigs will hold through daybreak, although INT/GSO/RDU may see a short period of MVFR cigs between 08z and 13z. After 13z, there is high confidence that VFR conditions will dominate today through tonight. A surface cold front now dropping southward through NC will settle just to our south, as high pressure builds in from the north. This will result in a largely dry day, with the only shower/storm threat expected to be across the south, mostly south of FAY, during the afternoon through mid evening. In general, only VFR mid and high clouds are expected across the area, lasting through the end of the TAF valid period. Surface winds will be less than 10 kts from the NE for much of the day. Looking beyond 06z Fri, VFR conditions are likely to hold overnight, although FAY may see scattered clouds based around 3000 to 4000 ft AGL 08z-12z. Just scattered to broken VFR afternoon cumulus is expected Fri afternoon, with a chance of showers near INT/GSO/FAY from mid afternoon through Fri night. Sub-VFR conditions are expected late Fri night through daybreak Sat as moisture returns across the area. Daily rain chances will resume Sat afternoon into Mon, mainly affecting INT/GSO, as an upper level trough approaches from the west. Sub-VFR stratus/fog may impact all central NC terminals early each morning Sun/Mon. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...MWS AVIATION...Hartfield

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