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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KRAH 021141
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
640 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A series of disturbances in west southwesterly flow aloft will
overspread the Carolinas through tonight, followed by a cold
high pressure that will build over the region Friday through
Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 244 AM Thursday...

Chilly with occasional rain today, shifting south and east tonight.

The next round/wave of rainfall was already spreading eastward
across the region this morning. The temperatures were chilly, but
not cold enough for any wintry precipitation concerns. Wet bulb
temperatures were in the mid 30s along the NC/VA border, with upper
30s and lower 40s elsewhere. Most guidance indicates occasional rain
for our region through this morning. The rain is expected to slowly
get shunted to the southeast this afternoon. This will favor the
southern tier of counties this afternoon into the evening as the
final wave of rainfall moves through the region. Chilly high
pressure and CAA early this morning in the east favors continued CAD
through the day in all areas. Expect temperatures to remain nearly
steady this morning, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s to mid
40s.

Rain is expected to end from the NW overnight. The steadier rain
will be over the southern and eastern areas, then gradually sink
southward and end overnight. The temperatures will hold nearly
steady overnight with mid 30s to near 40 expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 244 AM Thursday...

Very cold temperatures expected Friday night.

The cold front will push offshore early Friday as a very cold high
pressure over the Northern Plains builds east. The cold high will
settle over the Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic states Friday
night and early Saturday. Clearing, breezy, and chilly weather is
expected Friday with highs in the 40s (near 50 south). It will be
clear and very cold on Friday night with diminishing breezes. Lows
will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM Thursday...

Saturday through Sunday night: Dry and cold weather is expected for
Saturday with cold high pressure over the area. This will result in
dry weather, with high temperatures generally in the upper 30s to
lower 40s. The surface high will quickly move to the east of the
area and offshore Saturday night into Sunday, as a southern stream
s/w quickly tracks across the Gulf Coast states. The associated main
vort max is expected to pass well to the south of central NC and is
fairly progresses, with lack of much if any phasing with an
approaching northern stream trough until it`s well to the east of
our area. Thus, expect any chance of rain/showers from this system
will be fairly low and confined to the eastern half of central NC
for Sunday. At this time will keep pops in the slight chance range,
with all liquid expected if we do see any precip. High Sunday will
be a bit tricky, and dependent on if we see any rain. For now will
go with highs rebounding back into the 50s, after morning lows in
the 20s. Lows Sunday night are expected to be in the 30s.

Monday through Wednesday: Mid/upper level ridging is forecast to
build into and across the area during this time frame, with a
warming trend, with temps expected to be above normal with highs
generally in the 60s (maybe a little cooler Monday, upper 50s to
lower 60s), with lows in the 30s and 40s. While medium range models
struggle with the overall pattern by mid next week, dry weather is
still generally expected, with only a small threat for showers by
very late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Thursday...

Adverse aviation conditions are expected today as several waves of
rain move across central NC. LIFR to IFR CIGS with MVFR to IFR
VSBYS are expected into tonight with periods of rain and fog.

Outlook: IFR/LIFR CIGs will continue tonight with improvement
to MVFR early Friday morning and eventually to VFR Friday.
VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the outlook period, with
the exception of a slight chance of rain Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Badgett
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Badgett
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...Badgett