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000
FXUS62 KRAH 260114 RRA
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
915 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will dominate the eastern United States through the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 915 PM Thursday...

The seabreeze breeze has advanced inland into the southern coastal
plain and eastern Sandhills, but given increasing CIN over the area,
measurable precip looks unlikely.

A layer of marine stratus, that currently extends from Cape
Hatteras/NC to Newport News-VA, is expected to spread west into the
area overnight, leading to mostly cloudy skies overnight.
Additionally, S/SE flow above the shallow NELY stable layer will
increase moist isentropic lift and upslope flow along the eastern
slopes of the Appalachians. There is a non-zero chance for some
patchy drizzle across the nearby far western Piedmont counties. The
insulating low clouds generally keep temperatures a few degrees
warmer than last night. Lows ranging from mid/upper 40s NE to
lower/mid 50s western and southern portions of the forecast area. -
CbL


Skies should be mostly cloudy around sunrise on Friday, with some
partial clearing occurring by late morning across southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area. However, mostly cloudy skies
are likely to remain for much of the day from Raleigh to the north
and west. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Friday
compared to today, with highs ranging from the mid 60s to the mid
70s. -Green

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...

Mid-level ridging will continue to move over the southeast Friday
night with continued wnwly flow over central NC.  In the lower
levels, light esely flow will continue through Saturday morning. At
the sfc, a warm frontal zone draped over the deep south/TN valley
will move north into Ohio Valley through Saturday morning. Some
patchy, light rain associated with this feature may spill over into
the Triad for a few hours Friday night, but overall the area should
remain dry. Higher POPs appear more likely across the NC foothills
and eastern slopes of the mountains. Otherwise, expect cloudy
conditions to persist through much of Saturday. Dry conditions are
then expected to continue on Sunday under ridging aloft.

Temperature wise, Saturday will remain a bit cooler in the lower to
mid 70s.  Sfc flow will turn more sswly on Sunday warming temps
closer to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 355 PM Thursday...

Central NC will be under the influence of a high-amplitude mid/upper
ridge as it slowly migrates across the eastern US on Sunday and
Monday. At the surface, western Atlantic high pressure will weaken
and shift south from off the NC coast on Sunday to off the GA/SC
coast by Monday, shifting the surface flow to a S/SW direction. This
will bring mostly sunny skies and very warm temperatures, with highs
increasing from upper-70s to lower-80s on Sunday to mid-to-upper-80s
on Monday. Lows will be in the mid-50s to 60. While these
temperatures won`t break any records, they are still 5-15 degrees
above normal.

Clouds and precipitation chances will increase on Tuesday as the
ridge gets replaced by a shortwave trough approaching from the west,
reaching the Appalachians by Tuesday evening. However, the shortwave
doesn`t look too impressive and model QPF is on the light side.
Furthermore, models now show the actual synoptic cold front may not
make it to central NC, with only the lingering prefrontal surface
trough remaining and no temperature drop. So continue just
afternoon/evening slight to low chance POPs in the north and west,
while the ridge should continue to suppress convection in the east.

Isolated convection may continue on Wednesday from the lingering
surface trough and outflow boundaries, and by this time it could be
across the whole area as the ridge shifts farther offshore. Coverage
still doesn`t look too great with a lack of synoptic forcing.
Instability may be sufficient for a few storms Tuesday and Wednesday
with a very warm air mass in place, as highs still reach the mid-to-
upper-80s. The next southern stream trough and cold front will move
into the central US on Thursday, and timing has slowed down on the
GFS and ECMWF compared to prior runs. This favors continued warm
temperatures with isolated shower/storm chances at best.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 750 PM Thursday...

VFR will prevail at all TAF sites through much of the evening and
early overnight hours. Late over night and early morning hours NE
winds and some low level saturation will move into the region and
influence lower ceiling across the region. The Triad sites will see
border line MVFR to IFR ceilings early morning and MVFR conditions
will continue through the day. The more eastern sites (KRDU, KFAY,
and KRWI) will see MVFR ceilings a tad earlier than the triad,
beginning anytime after midnight. Periods of IFR conditions are
expected to occur during the climatological morning hours where some
low stratus is expected to develop across the eastern portions of
the region. MVFR conditions will return after morning sun and
heating begins but MVFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period.

Outlook: Restrictions are likely to continue into Saturday morning.
After this, conditions should be VFR. In addition, a chance of rain
cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO Friday night, with another chance of
rain possible Tuesday afternoon at INT/GSO. Otherwise conditions
should be dry.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...CBL/Green
SHORT TERM...Luchetti
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...CA/Green