Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 220728 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 330 AM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold high pressure will build in from the northwest through Friday. Another storm system will approach from the west over the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
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As of 330 AM Thursday... Cloudiness will continue to diminish slowly from the southwest with lingering wrap-around cloudiness mainly across the north and east through the morning as the stacked low off the mid Atlantic coast lifts northeast. Mins this morning will benefit from the lingering cloudiness and modest mixing overnight with northwest winds 4 to 8 mph, bottoming around 30 across the north to mid 30s south. The increasing sunshine will be largely offset by cold air advection in breezy northwest flow today, with highs only reaching low 50s across the north to mid 50s across the south.
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As of 330 AM Thursday... Cold and dry surface high pressure will continue to spill southeast into the area in deep northwest flow as the upper east coast trof axis shifts east and offshore Thursday night. Loosening pressure gradient will allow atmosphere to decouple and temps will again fall to the 30 to 35 range, with some upper 20s across the northern tier. The cool northwest flow will be maintained on Friday, with highs edging up slightly into the mid and upper 50s. We will see cloudiness increase rapidly in the west Friday night as a developing low pressure system begins spreading moisture out of the Gulf northeastward. This moisture will be lifted orographically and isentropically late Friday night, with light rain expected to hold off until early in the day Saturday. Lows will benefit from the onset of cloud coverage in the west and south with mins mostly in the 30s, while the clearer northeast will see lows below freezing northeast of the Triangle.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 PM Wednesday... A dry start to the long term for a day at least as surface high pressure lingers west of the area keeping skies clear but cool, with northwesterly downslope flow prevailing. This will keep high temperatures down in the lower 50s across the northeast to upper 50s in the southwest. Clouds will increase in the west on Friday night in response to a low developing over Missouri and a warm front extending eastward ahead of it. Any precipitation associated with this front will hold off until Saturday afternoon but a slight chance exists that precip could come in a bit earlier in the Triad. As the low approaches, it will begin to dive south of the area which could once again present some winter P-type issues for at least the northern half of the forecast area. Current forecast soundings along the I-40 corridor appear cold enough for at least a wintry mix of precipitation. There is a lot of uncertainty as far as the snow question is concerned. One is will there be enough moisture in the dendritic growth zone to support snow. Another is the amount of lift available through that layer. Temperatures are another concern especially further south and east because soundings indicating a possible weak warm nose that will play a role in determine exactly what falls from the sky. Bottom line is precip chances through the weekend are high, but north of route 64, it is unclear exactly what it will be. Southern portions of the CWA should bet on all rain at this point. Precipitation looks to end by Sunday evening which is welcome news for the morning commute on Monday which will be fairly cold but most likely unhindered by winter weather. Temps Saturday and Sunday in the upper 40s to low 50s. Monday will most likely start out very cloudy as high pressure to the northeast moves into a favorable location for cold air damming. This could present a drizzle threat for much of the day, especially in the Triad. Highs Monday still only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. By Tuesday the high starts to push southward over the Carolinas which may help to start to break some of the cloud cover and add a few degrees to the afternoon high, mid 50s. By Wednesday the high finally slips south and east of the area and a much welcome southerly return flow ensues. This will bring a very noticeable difference in the weather and the temperatures as highs climb into the low 60s across the north to near 70 degrees in the south. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 230 AM Thursday... VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour TAF period. Current overcast VFR ceilings will scatter out from the southwest as the extensive cloudiness associated with the low pressure system off the mid Atlantic lifts northeast. Northwest winds will pick up to 10 to 12 knots gusting to 20 knots by 15Z, mainly in the west, then diminish towards sunset. High pressure will maintain VFR through Friday night. Aviation conditions will deteriorate rapidly early Saturday morning as our next system approaches, with lowering ceilings and precipitation overspreading the area during the day. Unsettled weather will linger through early next week, but conditions are expectd to improve to primarily VFR by late day Sunday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...mlm SHORT TERM...mlm LONG TERM...Ellis AVIATION...mlm is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.