-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
070
FXUS62 KRAH 080743
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
343 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough will linger over the Middle Atlantic and
Carolinas through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 PM Monday...

* Isolated storms this afternoon

* Spotty areas where late-day heat indices could touch 105 degrees

Early afternoon satellite imagery and surface obs show the remnants
of Chantal well north of NC. In its wake, large scale subsidence
(and dry weather) is in place across the area with little in the way
of deep convective cloud cover to speak of (some isolated storms are
noted in the mountains as well as across portions of northern SC).
Temps generally range from the mid 80s in the north to the lower 90s
in the south, although dewpoints are pretty uniformly in the low to
mid 70s.

For the rest of the afternoon hours, a few spots could see heat
indices briefly touch 105 degrees, although this should not be
widespread and not of any great duration. Meanwhile, the 00Z and 12Z
HREF aren`t overly enthusiastic about precip chances today, which
makes sense given large scale post-TC subsidence. A stray, short
lived shower or storm can`t be ruled out over the western Piedmont
as well as the Sandhills, but these should dissipate quickly with
the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, conditions should be dry
with PoPs of 5-10 percent or less this evening, dropping to near 0
late tonight

Overnight lows ranging from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 PM Monday...

* Heat indices of 105 to 109 expected across portions of central NC,
  and a Heat Advisory has been issued.

* Marginal risk of both flash flooding and severe weather

Tuesday`s weather will see Bermuda high pressure to our east with
weak surface troughing across central NC. Return flow around the
high will allow very warm/humid air to overspread much of central NC
tomorrow, with temperatures increasing into the low to mid 90s and
dewpoints following suit into the mid/upper 70s. This in turn should
result in heat indices ranging from 105-109 degrees from the
Triangle southward along US-1 and eastward into the Coastal Plain.
As such, we`re going to issue a Heat Advisory for these areas, and
also include some of the counties that were particularly hard hit
from the remnants of Chantal where recovery/cleanup efforts remain
ongoing and outdoor activities may be more widespread than usual.
Peak timing for dangerous heat indices will be from 10am to 8pm.

Meanwhile with surface troughing across central NC and abundant
moisture in place, showers and thunderstorms should make a return to
the area. While there won`t be much in the way of synoptic forcing
to drive convection, sea breeze convergence and convection rolling
off the mountains should result in a fairly typical distribution of
rainfall chances across the area.  Inverted V soundings support an
increased threat of damaging winds, and saturated soils support an
increased threat of flash flooding (especially in the narrow strip
of counties west of the Triangle due to Chantal`s rainfall). Both
SPC and WPC have central NC highlighted with Marginal Risk for
severe weather and flooding respectively. Peak storm timing from 2-
8pm, dropping off considerably with the loss of daytime heating.

Daytime highs ranging from the lower 90s across the Triad to the mid
90s elsewhere. Overnight lows in the lower 70s (NW) to the mid 70s
elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 340 AM Tuesday...

A mid/upper trough will push east from SE Ontario into southern
Quebec on Thursday and Friday, as a pair of shortwaves moves across
the Northern and Central Plains. Meanwhile the broad longwave trough
will extend south into the TN Valley. Southwesterly flow aloft will
prevail over central NC between this feature and a subtropical high
centered near Bermuda. This will bring in plenty of moisture with PW
values near or exceeding 2 inches. A series of upper impulses and a
Piedmont surface trough will combine with the ample moisture and
moderate destabilization south of a quasi-stationary front over the
OH Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic to result in widespread shower
and storm development on Thursday and Friday, maximized in the
afternoon and evening. The greatest coverage looks to be on Thursday
when POPs are categorical everywhere. Similar to previous days,
despite weak shear, there still could be a threat for isolated
damaging winds from wet downbursts, and SPC introduced a marginal
(level 1 of 5) risk for severe storms on Thursday.

The more concerning threat, however, looks to be heavy rain and
flooding. The storms should be fairly slow moving with the weak mean
flow, and grounds will be saturated due to recent heavy rainfall
from Tropical Depression Chantal along with additional expected
showers and storms today and tomorrow. Thus the WPC has a marginal
(level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on both Thursday and
Friday, with even a slight (level 2 of 4) area over the NC Piedmont
where locally very heavy rain just fell from Chantal. Flood Watches
may be needed, and additional river flooding will be possible as
some points along the Haw, Little, and Cape Fear Rivers are already
above or near flood stage.

High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be back down to near
normal (mid-80s to 90) with the widespread clouds and precipitation
chances, but it will still be uncomfortably humid with widespread
dew points in the 70s. The cloud cover will also keep lows on the
mild side, in the upper-60s to mid-70s.

The longwave trough will push to our east this weekend, turning the
mid-level flow more W/NW and bringing in some drier air. The
shortwaves over the North-Central US will lift into Canada, and
ridging will begin building into the Southeast US especially by
Monday. Thus convective coverage should decrease somewhat, but with
moderate destabilization and the boundary remaining to our north,
along with a continued Piedmont surface trough, scattered showers
and storms will still be possible each day. This pattern will result
in a slight increase in temperatures but still within a few degrees
of normal, with highs in the upper-80s to lower-90s. Lows will be in
the lower-to-mid-70s. Heat indices in the low-100s will be possible
in the south and east by Sunday and Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 AM Tuesday...

No major changes with the 06z TAF package as prevailing VFR is
expected at all TAF sites with PROB30s for late afternoon storms and
associated restrictions. We are watching an area of IFR/MVFR cigs
pinned along the NC coast as some guidance suggest a period of SCT
to perhaps BKN cigs may lift northward and affect FAY and RWI in the
10-14z window. Mixing after sunrise may additionally result in a
short window of MVFR cigs at FAY before scattering/lifting to VFR by
mid-morning.

Outlook: Scattered storms are expected each afternoon and evening
through Fri, as a weak upper trough slowly approaches from the west;
greatest coverage through the outlook period may be Wed and Thurs.
Early morning fog and/or stratus will also be possible. Storm
coverage decreasing a bit this weekend as westerly flow aloft takes
hold.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 815 PM Monday...

River Flood Warnings remain in effect for a few locations across
central NC. As of this evening, this includes the following:

Haw River at Bynum
Cape Fear at Lillington
Little River At Manchester

We are monitoring conditions along the Cape Fear at Fayetteville.
Warnings may be needed for this point later tonight.

In addition, we have issued a long duration Flood Warning for areas
west of the Triangle to account for slowly receding flood waters.
Areas along the Eno River as well as near Hyco Lake are experiencing
ongoing flooding and it will likely be several more hours before
water recedes. This is in addition to numerous low lying spots
across the area.

The flooding is the result of a narrow swath of heavy rainfall
stretching from Hoke/Scotland Co northward to Person Co. Rainfall
observations this morning suggest these areas saw a remarkable 5-11
inches of rainfall during the day Sunday. Significantly less
rainfall was seen on either side of this corridor, with many
locations east of I-95 and west of I-74 seeing less than an inch of
rain. In addition to the numerous swift water rescues that occurred
Sunday and Sunday night, the Haw River at Haw River crested just shy
of its all time record this morning, while it appears the Haw River
at Bynum did in fact reach a new record.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ007>011-023>028-
040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Leins
NEAR TERM...Leins
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Swiggett/MWS
HYDROLOGY...Leins