Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 191051 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 650 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A dry cold front will cross central NC this morning. Gusty winds can be expected today. High pressure will build over the region tonight and Friday, with lighter winds and much cooler temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 322 AM Thursday... Breezy southwest winds will become windy west to northwest winds behind a cold frontal passage this morning. The front should pass through the region by mid-morning in the Piedmont, then reach the Fayetteville and Goldsboro areas by noon. So, winds will be the story of the day. Expect SW winds 10-20 mph, shift to the WNW at 15- 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph. This will fall just under the wind advisory criteria. Temperatures will start the day much warmer than guidance and forecast, which is common out ahead of a cold front approaching late at night. Such is the case now. We will have to raise temperatures to those more in line (but a few degrees lower) than the warmest MOS guidance available, which is the GFS MOS. The NAM/EC appear much too cool, by 5-10 degrees in the east. Expect highs of 75-80 east, and upper 60s to mid 70s west. Temperatures will begin to fall in the NW Piedmont mid afternoon, as very strong CAA begins. This leads to tonight. Frost Advisory for much of central NC, except the SE. Strong CAA early will end quickly as winds die off between 200 am and 500 am. Some models indicated a couple decoupling later tonight. It appears that there will be a rapid temperature fall just after the winds die off toward dawn. This may be allow temperatures to fall into the 33-36 range in the Advisory area. Scattered frost will be possible in low lying areas. Tender plants may need protection. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM Thursday... Big story here is that another Frost Advisory will likely be needed, especially in the northern zones Friday night. Lows again in the mid 30s in these areas. Lows ranging into the upper 30s to near 40 SE. Sunny, dry, Friday with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Chilly north winds to 15 mph Friday, decreasing to nil Friday night. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure will extend into the area from the north and northeast through the weekend, with dry weather expected as weak s/w ridging builds into and over the area. Temps will generally run below normal over the weekend, with highs generally in the 60s and lows generally in the 40s. Meanwhile, a mid/upper level area of low pressure will approach the region from the west over the weekend and move into the TN Valley and Southeast U.S. by early next week, helping to spread precip into central NC by early to mid next week, with a damming air mass developing. However, timing differences with regard to when the precip will move into the area still exists. Regardless, we should see some rain early to mid next week, with below normal high temps as the main surface low is expected to pass to the south of central NC. Thus, central NC will remain on the cool side of this system, with the best chance of any severe weather suppressed to the south of area. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 645 AM Thursday... 24-Hour TAF Period: SW winds will increase to 15-20 knots with gusts to 30 knots today. Winds will shift to the WNW with gusts to 30-35kt this afternoon. Winds will decrease tonight, to less than 10 knots after sunset. VFR conditions expected. Looking ahead: Expect VFR conditions to persist into the weekend. The next threat for significant weather is expected early next week.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory tonight from 400 AM through 900 AM Friday for NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>076. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Badgett NEAR TERM...Badgett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...Badgett

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