Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 270136 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 935 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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An upper level trough will move across the area overnight. A weak surface front will linger overhead Friday into Saturday. A mostly dry cold front will cross the area Saturday night.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 905 PM Thursday... Compact upper low, currently moving into the southern Appalachians, is forecast to transition/weaken into an open wave trough as it lifts NE across the area overnight. Convection associated with this upper low has been very underwhelming, with not one upstream report of severe weather. Given weak instability of ~500 J/KG across the area, that`s forecast to further weaken overnight due to nocturnal stabilization, the trend of no severe weather will continue across the area overnight, with only isolated to scattered thunder occurring within the eastward moving band of showers. Lows tonight will range from lower/mid 50s NW to upper 50s/near 60 SE.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Thursday... The bulk of the showers will lift nwd out of our region by early Friday morning. A lingering surface trough aligned north-to-south over the Piedmont will move little through the day. This feature may serve as a focus for isolated-scattered showers to develop during the afternoon heating. This feature will linger overhead through Saturday afternoon, likely attributing to the development of shallow cu. A stronger cold front associated with a s/w dropping sewd from the Great Lakes into the northern Mid Atlantic will drop into central NC Saturday night. This feature should cross the area uneventful, aside from a shower or two in vicinity of the Virginia border where moisture may be a bit more abundant compared to the rest of the forecast area. Highs Friday and Saturday will average close to normal, with highs in the low-mid 70s Friday, and mid-upper 70s Saturday. Overnight temperatures generally in the 50s. It will be notably cooler Saturday night behind the front. Min temps Saturday night should vary from the mid 40s NW to the lower 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 200 PM Thursday... Long range forecast continues to be dry with a warming trend. An upper level trough will pass across the area Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure building in early next week will allow for the airmass to begin warming concurrent with height rises behind the upper trough passage. Conditions will be dry with mostly clear skies to accompany a warming trend Tuesday through late week. Highs Monday will be in the low to mid 70s, near 80 on Tuesday, and in the low to mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Morning lows will follow a similar trend, from around 50 Tuesday morning to around 60 Thursday morning. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 645 PM Thursday... An approaching low pressure system will cause aviation conditions to deteriorate from southwest to northeast this evening, and persist until early Friday morning. Ceilings will thicken and lower with widespread MVFR ceilings expected overnight, starting at KINT/KGSO between 00Z-03Z, and elsewhere between 04z - 08z. An isolated brief drop to IFR/LIFR will also be possible as the showers move through, and again around sunrise as moisture levels in the lower boundary layer of the atmosphere increases. Have backed off on thunder chances at all TAF sites mainly due to lack in ongoing thunder/convection to our southeast. May need to add this back in as an amendment if instability grows later tonight, and storms do form. Best chance for this remains across KGSO/KINT. Aviation conditions will gradually improve Friday morning with VFR parameters anticipated by mid day, persisting into the afternoon. The exception will be isolated-scattered mid cumulus deck and a few showers that may develop along a slow moving cold front drifting east across central NC. In proximity of the showers, a brief drop to MVFR CIGS may occur, but these will be hit or miss in nature. VFR conditions expected Friday night through Tuesday as central NC will have a period of tranquil weather. A sfc cold front will glide southeast across the region Saturday night. At this time, the atmosphere appears too dry and stable to support anything more than a band of clouds and possibly a shower or two near the Virginia border. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...WSS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...mlm/Franklin AVIATION...JJM

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