-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
549
FXUS62 KRAH 100800
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
400 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moving across the state today will bring a chance for
severe weather across the south, followed by mostly dry weather and
below normal temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Friday...

Low pressure is currently over southeastern Virginia with a cold
front extending back to the west-southwest. There is not a huge
temperature gradient along the front, but there is about a 10 degree
spread in the dewpoint. The parent low will continue to head
offshore, with a wave along the cold front expected to be enhanced
during the daytime by an upper level shortwave. While the forecast
still calls for a dry morning, have bumped up pops to likely across
southeastern counties, continuing with the inherited chance pops
elsewhere across the forecast area. SPC has added a slight (level 2
of 5) risk across portions of southeastern NC and northeastern SC,
including portions of Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, and Sampson
counties. MUCAPE in this area should range between 500-1500 J/kg,
with greatest amounts to the south. Effective bulk shear between 30-
40 kt will also help to organize any thunderstorms that do develop.
Although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, the primary severe
weather threats will be damaging wind gusts and large hail. The most
likely timing for severe weather appears to be between 2 and 8pm. As
the front moves east by sunset, the chance for showers/thunderstorms
will quickly diminish, with all rain to the east of the region by
midnight. Wind gusts will pick up by late morning and continue
through the overnight hours, reaching as high as 25 mph outside of
any thunderstorms that develop. Highs will range from the mid 70s in
the north to the mid 80s in the south. Lows will be noticeably
cooler behind the front, with values ranging from the mid 40s to the
mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Friday...

Today`s cold front will be well offshore by Saturday morning,
although a second low pressure system will be over the Great Lakes
with another cold front extending to the south. The low will track
east to New York by Sunday morning, and moisture with the associated
cold front is not expected to track too far to the south. In fact,
southern counties should remain mostly sunny through the day. Have
gone with a slight chance of showers to the north of US-64 during
the late afternoon and early evening, and this may be overdone. The
effects of today`s cold front will continue to be felt on Saturday,
with some locations along the VA/NC border remaining in the upper
60s for highs and the rest of the area in the 70s. Saturday night`s
lows will be similar to tonight`s reading, in the mid 40s to the mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 400 AM Friday...

Dry NW flow will continue to dominate on Sunday between a mid/upper
trough over the Northeast US and ridging over the lower MS Valley.
At the surface, high pressure will move east from the TN Valley to
become centered over the mid-Atlantic on Monday morning. This
pattern will support sunny skies and another very pleasant day, as
dew points are again only in the 40s. High temperatures will range
from mid-70s to 80 with lows Sunday night in the upper-40s to mid-
50s, which is at or slightly below normal.

The elongated surface high will move offshore into the western
Atlantic on Monday and turn the flow southerly, which will help
increase high temperatures back to near normal (upper-70s to lower-
80s). Meanwhile a closed mid/upper low will move from the southern
Plains into the mid-MS Valley, eventually becoming more of an open
wave. SW flow aloft ahead of this system will increase moisture
across our region once more, with mid and high clouds spreading in
from the west. The earliest we see any precipitation from this
system should be Monday evening/night, as chance POPs begin to
spread in (highest SW). POPs increase to likely to categorical on
Tuesday and still likely on Wednesday, as the vast majority of GFS
and ECMWF ensemble members depict precipitation, and the
deterministic GFS, ECMWF and CMC have overall come into much better
agreement on the timing of the shortwave. The system looks to move
across the OH/TN Valleys on Tuesday/Tuesday night and the mid-
Atlantic on Wednesday/Wednesday night. Shower and storm chances will
be maximized during time of peak diurnal heating (afternoon and
evening) both days. The widespread clouds and precipitation may keep
temperatures down a bit on Tuesday, with highs in the 70s. Models
indicate a warmer and more unstable air mass in place on Wednesday
with highs in the mid-70s to lower-80s. Lows will be mild during
this period, in the upper-50s to mid-60s.

There will be some drying and clearing behind the shortwave early
Thursday, but this will be short-lived as the next longwave trough
moves into the central US and sends a shortwave the approaches our
region late Thursday. Precipitation doesn`t look as widespread as
Tuesday/Wednesday, but isolated showers and storms still can`t be
ruled out. Highs will again be in the upper-70s to mid-80s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 AM Friday...

TAF period: High confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. The primary potential for any flight restrictions would come
with precipitation moving through FAY during the late morning and
afternoon hours. Am not forecasting any widespread ceilings under
10,000 ft. Will maintain the PROB30 for TSRA at FAY as well as
adding VCSH for an extended period during the afternoon. Think there
could also be some scattered showers at RWI, but confidence is too
low to include a mention of precipitation at other sites, although
it will remain a possibility. Winds will gust as a cold front moves
through, with values up to 20-25 kt as the wind direction shifts
from southwest to northwest. Gusts should continue after sunset.

Outlook: An isolated shower cannot be ruled out at INT/GSO Saturday
afternoon. The next chance of precipitation will come Monday night
and Tuesday as low pressure moves into the mid-Atlantic states.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Green
NEAR TERM...Green
SHORT TERM...Green
LONG TERM...Danco
AVIATION...Green