Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 250620 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 220 AM EDT Fri May 25 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure centered over the western Atlantic will extend westward across the Carolinas today. The resulting wind flow from the south, along with an upper trough approaching from the west, will lead to increased cloud cover and unsettled weather over the weekend.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 900 PM Thursday... Convection has largely moved to the west and south of the area and/or died off this evening across the far south/southwestern reaches of central NC. Surface high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will continue to extend into the area from the northeast/east- northeast tonight, resulting in some low level return flow and across southern and western portions of the area, with generally dry conditions. This should result in the coolest lows overnight across the northeast Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, with the warmest values across the south and west. Thus, expect lows will range from the upper 50s northeast to the mid to upper 60s south and west. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 255 PM Thursday... Friday and Friday night, while a mid level s/w ridge will extend across central NC, the attendant sfc high will drift offshore Friday. The resultant return flow from the south-southeast will increase the low level moisture, initially in the west, then spreading east into the Coastal Plain by evening. This increase in moisture, along with a slightly unstable air mass as a result of heating, will support the development of isolated-scattered convection during the mid-late afternoon hours. The chances for convection appear greater over the western and southern Piedmont, dwindling quickly to the east-northeast over the northeast Piedmont/northern Coastal Plain where the atmosphere will be drier and not as unstable. Skies should remain mostly sunny-partly cloudy across the east half, permitting this region to warm solidly into the mid 80s. Across the west, variably cloudy skies and isolated/scattered afternoon convection should keep temperatures a tad cooler, mainly in the lower 80s. The bulk of the convection will diminish with loss of heating. However, a minor s/w lifting nwd on the backside of the retreating s/w ridge may trigger a few showers late Friday night in vicinity of the Pee Dee/lower Yadkin River. Otherwise it will be notably humid across the eastern counties as sly flow will advect the warm humid air mass back into this area. Under variably cloudy skies, overnight temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 PM Thursday... A tropical airmass will be over central North Carolina for the entire long range period. In addition, a tropical system will be moving through the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the holiday weekend and into the northern Gulf states early next week. With that in mind, will include a chance of showers and thunderstorms for the entire period across the area. Model guidance suggests the highest chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday and again Wednesday into Thursday. General rainfall amounts in the long range will average one to two inches. However, with abundant tropical moisture in place and a tropical system nearby, any convection will have the potential to produce torrential downpours and localized flooding. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 220 AM Friday... Chances are good of MVFR to IFR cigs developing early this morning (by 08z) at INT/GSO, a result of low level moisture pooling within a light SE flow. These low cigs will be slow to rise with heating through the MVFR category, likely not reaching VFR until close to 18z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected as the offshore-centered high pressure stays in control. Patchy showers and perhaps an isolated storms are possible this afternoon (mainly 16z-21z) near INT/GSO, with other locations staying dry. VFR conditions are expected to rule at all locations from mid afternoon through 06z tonight. Surface winds will be light, under 10 kts, mainly from the SSE or SE through tonight. Looking beyond 06z Sat, sub-VFR conditions, mainly low cigs, are likely late tonight, 08z-13z, at all sites. These should lift to VFR by 15z Sat with an increasing surface wind from the SW, along with increasing shower/storm chances, especially at INT/GSO Sat afternoon and evening. This scenario is expected to repeat on Sun, with sub- VFR daybreak conditions and a risk of afternoon storms, mainly in the NW CWA. Rain chances may rise further Sun night into Mon as tropical moisture lifts into the area from the SSE, bringing a good chance of sub-VFR conditions into early Mon. Mon/Tue are likely to remain unsettled, with considerable clouds, better-than-usual rain chances, and a high probability of sub-VFR conditions. -GIH
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...Franklin AVIATION...Hartfield

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