Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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428 FXUS62 KRAH 160157 AFDRAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Raleigh NC 957 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Weak high pressure will extend across the southern middle Atlantic states ahead of a cold front that will cross the region Tuesday and Tuesday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 955 PM Sunday... Sea breeze showers now over the srn and cntl NC Coastal Plain are expected to dissipate with further nocturnal cooling and stabilization in the next couple of hours. Areas of fog will then develop overnight, in prevailing light nely flow around a ridge extending from the Mid-South to the srn middle Atlantic coast. The highest probability of occurrence and the lowest visibility restrictions are expected to be focused over the northeast Piedmont and nrn-cntl Coastal Plain, where surface observational data suggests the low level moisture is relatively maximized and where surface winds will be relatively most calm in proximity to the aforementioned low level ridge axis centered over VA. Forecast low temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70 degrees are about five degrees above average values for mid September. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 400 PM Sunday... Positioned along the eastern periphery of the amplifying mid/upper level ridge centered over the Ms Valley, warming temps aloft will secure warm and mostly dry conditions across central NC Monday. The lone exception will be across the far eastern zones, where seabreeze associated convection will attempt to drift drift into Sampson County. Highs 87 to 91. Lows 65 to 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 257 PM Sunday... The reign of above normal temperatures and humidity will come to an end across central NC by mid week thanks to the passage of a backdoor cold front Tuesday afternoon. Behind the front, cooler and drier high pressure will settle in through the end of the week, giving the region some of its first hints of the Fall season. By Tuesday morning, the primary surface front will be oriented west to east just across our northern border in VA. Model timing with primary surface front passage continues to differ slightly, but all hint at a complete passage during the afternoon and evening hours. Some isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible during this time frame, but likely limited by geographic coverage and almost certainly in duration thanks to the presence of only weak instability out ahead of the FROPA forcing. The temperature forecast will be the primary forecast challenge of the day, with a rather sharp gradient and non-diurnal curve .across the northern zones likely thanks to the front`s influence. For now, have retained afternoon high temperatures approaching 90 degrees across the southwestern zones, with highs struggling to break 80 by lunchtime closer to the VA/NC border. CAA will give the cooling cycle a bit of a head start late Tuesday afternoon behind the front with overnight lows settling near 70 degrees. Some patchy fog formation will be possible overnight. The primary dewpoint front arrives roughly 12 to 18 hours after the effective front (Wednesday morning), helping to clear things out late in the week. Afternoon highs will struggle to reach 80 degrees across the area thanks to intermittent clouds and a brisk northeasterly breeze. Similar conditions will be felt on Thursday afternoon, with a slow and gradual warming trend likely into next weekend. Overnight lows will settle in the mid to upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday night, with a reading or two in the 40s possible in the usual cold spots. Precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon through Sunday will remain near zero. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 800 PM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: All TAF sites are VFR this evening with very little convection occurring across central North Carolina. Convective initiation seems to have failed today due to low level capping around 750 MB. A stalled boundary is also located across the Mountains of North Carolina with some drier air trying to make it into KINT. East of KINT a wide warm sector exists with the potential for fog. The cross over temperatures at KINT is ~62 which appears too low for fog formation, while the cross over at KRWI is 69. The low temperatures will again likely fall below this supporting dense fog. Fog will also be likely at KRDU, with more uncertainty at KFAY. Dense fog will then quickly lift Monday morning with all TAF sites quickly going VFR. Outlook: Another round of sub-VFR cigs and vsbys will be possible Tuesday morning across the coastal plain with slightly drier air towards the Triad keeping conditions VFR. Tuesday afternoon a cold front will cross the TAF sites with VFR conditions prevailing. Behind the front Tuesday night some MVFR stratus will be possible. VFR is then expected Wednesday through the end of the work week. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...MWS SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Haines is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.