Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 180813 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 411 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... The area of low pressure that brought scattered showers and storms to the forecast area will continue offshore early Sunday, allowing cool high pressure to build into the region. The high shifts offshore Sunday evening, with a series of low pressure systems set to affect our area Monday through Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday... Latest surface observations show the surface low that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to central North Carolina Sat night pushing off toward the Outer Banks of NC. Behind the system, decaying showers continue to march east, likely to follow offshore by sunrise Sunday, with high pressure forcing its way into the Mid Atlantic states. This will help force the stalled frontal boundary south during the overnight hours, allowing temperatures to cool into the low to mid 40s before dawn under mostly cloudy skies. Skies begin to clear by mid afternoon Sunday with pockets of drier air finally able to bleed in from the upper-levels of the atmosphere. This will allow for some warming during the mid to late afternoon hours, however, high temps will likely be held just below normal thanks to persistent northerly flow. High temps should settle in the lower 60s area wide. Flow veers southeasterly Sunday night as the high transitions offshore. Temps should fall into the 30s (northeast) with mid to upper 40s prevalent (southwest) overnight. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Sunday... High pressure transitions off the Mid Atlantic Coast before sunrise Monday, as a Mid to upper-level low ejects east across the Great Plains states. Southerly to Southeasterly flow across the SE CONUS is enhanced between these two systems, lifting a warm front north into the Carolinas Monday. The result will be lowering overcast on Mon, with an increasing probability of rain from SW to NE with time along with subsequent likely to categorical probability of rain/showers Mon night, with nrn (climatologically-favored) counties likely to remain in a cooler and more stable wedge air mass, while srn ones experience milder and slightly unstable conditions, with an associated slight chance of thunder Mon night. Elevated thunder will be possible as far north as roughly the HWY 64 corridor. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 410 AM Sunday... Unsettled weather is expected to continue at the start of the medium range forecast period, with below normal temps expected for the entire period. A brief lull in the precip is generally expected on Tuesday as the first in a series of disturbances shifts to the east of the area. However, skies will continue to remain mostly cloudy to overcast will low level moisture lingering. Highs on Tuesday are expected to range from the mid 40s north to the lower to mid 60s south. Additional mid/upper level energy is expected to dive southeastward and into our area for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF continue to advertise the potential for some wintry precip early Wednesday morning into Wednesday across the area, with the best chance of seeing some light accumulations of snowfall across the climatological favored Piedmont. The system will be similar to the last one, where the boundary layer will need to cooled by melting snow in order bring temps down to near freezing. Have lowered temps a bit more for Tuesday night into Wednesday, while using a non diurnal curve, with lows and highs ranging from the lower/mid 30s to lower 40s. Dry weather is expected to generally return for late week with the mid upper level trough axis expected to shift to the east of the area. The next system is expected to approach the area next weekend, with increasing chances for showers/rain. Temps late week into early next weekend are expected to run below normal, with highs generally in the 40s and 50s for Thursday and 50s for Friday and Saturday. Low temps are expected to be in the 30s, with even a few upper 20s possible on Friday morning.
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&& .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 AM Sunday... 24 Hour TAF Period: A mesolow continues to track east of the forecast area at this hour, pushing a line of showers and storms east into the NC Coastal Plains. Behind this feature, light rain showers continue to move west to east, allowing for intermittent CIGs and VSBYS across the area. While most sit at VFR at this time, periodic drops to MVFR with an isolated IFR in the eastern sites, will remain possible as the residual moisture lingers. Have displayed this in the TAFs through the use of TEMPO groups through the 08z time frame (west) and 10-11z time frame (east). Gradual improvement is expected beginning sunrise Sunday, with all sites returning to VFR no later than the noon hour, with clearing skies. Some MVFR potential returns overnight Sunday into Monday as easterly/southeasterly flow returns and a warm front drifts north. Outlook: Another threat of sub-VFR conditions will arrive on Monday, with the sub-VFR threat persisting into the middle of next week as a series of disturbances passes overhead. Confidence is not high regarding timing of these disturbances, so aviation interests should check back for the latest thinking. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JJM NEAR TERM...JJM SHORT TERM...JJM/MWS LONG TERM...BSD AVIATION...JJM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.