Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000 FXUS62 KRAH 271834 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 234 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure will lift northeast through the Southeast states and eastern Carolinas today through Thursday. The cold front will move eastward through central North Carolina Thursday night. Dry and warming weather is expected Friday and Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 1145 AM Wednesday... ...Flood Watch for 8 PM today to 8 PM tomorrow extended to include the NE Piedmont and Sandhills... Deep moist southwesterly flow ahead of a broad mid/upper trough over the Central and Eastern US, along with a slow-moving cold front currently over the Appalachians and an area of low pressure moving along the Southeast US coast, will result in multiple rounds of moderate to heavy rainfall across central NC through tomorrow morning. The forecast generally looks on track this morning. The biggest change for today was to lower high temperatures over the northern and western Piedmont given they will be stuck in low overcast and cool NE flow all day on the backside of the inverted surface trough that extends into central NC. Forecast highs there are only in the lower-to-mid-50s, coolest across the far north (including the Triad). Furthermore, the surface warm front is analyzed over central SC, south of which temperatures are already in the lower-70s and dew points in the upper-60s. As an area of low pressure currently over the central GOM moves NE and along the GA/SC/southern NC coast tonight, it will push the warm front farther north and into southeastern parts of central NC later today. So still expecting the southern Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain to reach mid-60s to lower-70s today. This is also where high-res models show as much as 500 J/kg of SBCAPE from about 18z-00z today. With decent low level and deep layer shear, can`t rule out an isolated strong to severe storm down there during this period. But it will be very conditional and the best instability will remain to our south. Elsewhere, thunder will continue to be possible through tonight, but convection will remain elevated, so no severe threat is expected. As for rainfall, still expecting a general 1-4 inches across most of the area, highest over the Coastal Plain. The Triad may be more in the half inch to an inch range, and there will be a sharp cutoff on the western side, but exactly where that sets up is still uncertain as guidance has been waffling back and forth. The 12z HREF shifted the 2-4 inch axis farther west into central NC to include the NE Piedmont and Sandhills. High-res guidance depicts multiple rounds of showers today with a more widespread area with heavier rates developing tonight across much of the area as the low lifts NE. This will result in a risk for flooding, including in urban areas like the Triangle and on some mainstem rivers which are forecast to reach flood stage at our eastern gauges. Given all of this, the Flood Watch from this evening into tomorrow evening has been extended farther west to include the NE Piedmont and Sandhills. Also increased POPs to categorical over this entire area tonight. Still expecting lows in the mid-40s to mid-50s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 AM Wednesday... Aloft, the s/w over the Deep South should continue swinging through the Southeast Thu and offshore Thu night. At the surface, the surface trough should finally move eastward and offshore on Thu as the low deepens and tracks along the NC coast. This low should shift eastward out over the Atlantic Thu eve/night, with cool high pressure building into the area in its wake. Precipitation: The moderate/heavy rain will likely continue through Thu morning, finally shifting eastward and out of the area Thu aft/eve as the surface low moves away. Temperatures: Highs Thu will be lowest in the east where the rain/clouds linger into the afternoon, with mid 50s expect, while in the west where the weather may dry out and sun may try to peek out, highs could rise into the low/mid 60s. Lows Thu night mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Friday - Easter: Upper ridging from the central Plains into the upper Midwest and a shortwave moving southeast across the Mid- Atlantic will generate northwesterly flow aloft across central NC to end the work week. Ridging then builds southeast towards the TN Valley/Great Lakes region for the weekend, switching flow aloft to more zonal. At the surface, departing low pressure off the NC coast and high pressure building from the Deep South Friday to off FL`s Atlantic coast will generate breezy conditions across central NC from a tight pressure gradient. Breezy WNW winds Friday will switch to SW Saturday as the high to our south moves further east. Gusts Friday afternoon will range from 20-30 mph, with weaker gusts Saturday of 15-25 mph. Relative humidity will be on the downward trend, with values dropping to 25-35 percent through the period. Fuels will likely be wet enough to avoid elevated fire weather conditions Friday, however fine fuels may be dry enough Saturday to warrant elevated conditions across areas west of Highway 1. Winds slightly diminish by Easter Sunday, with relative humidity remaining low across the region. The ridge building in will increase heights across central NC, and with warm air advection in full swing, temperatures will be on the rise through the weekend. Near normal highs in the 60s Friday quickly rise to the 70s Saturday as surface winds switch to southwesterly, then temps rise even more on Easter, with most areas near to just above 80 degrees for a high. Winds become more westerly on Sunday as a surface low moves east across the Mid-Atlantic and a cold front approaches from the north. Sunday night - Tuesday: Precipitation then returns to the forecast Sunday night with an approaching cold front from the north. Isentropic ascent developing will help generate light rain across northern half of the region late Sunday night into Monday. Although the front stalls across our area and then lifts north late Monday, another approaching cold front and perturbations in the mean flow aloft will increase rainfall chances across all areas Tuesday. Prior to the front lifting north late Monday, areas near the VA border were looking cooler with highs closer to seasonal normals. However, the further push of the front north looks to keep the warmer airmass across all areas a bit longer, with highs in the mid-70s N to mid- 80s S Monday and Tuesday. The details will change over the next few days, however confidence is increasing in precipitation returning by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Wednesday... Widespread IFR to LIFR ceilings blanket across central NC as a result of an area of showers and storms that has moved through. The one exception is the far SE (including FAY) which is still VFR, but they are also expected to drop to MVFR later this afternoon and IFR/LIFR this evening. RWI may bounce between IFR and MVFR ceilings (maybe even briefly VFR) this afternoon before also dropping to IFR/LIFR this evening. Elsewhere across the Piedmont (including RDU, GSO and INT), confidence is high that IFR to LIFR ceilings will persist through tonight. While visibilities will improve some now that the first round of showers is exiting to the NE, another area of showers developing over SC will move across central NC later this afternoon and this evening. It could be accompanied by some isolated storms as well, particularly over the far SE (including FAY) where they may have gusty winds. A more widespread and heavy area of showers and isolated storms with IFR/LIFR visibilities will move across central NC overnight tonight, particularly from around RDU to the south and east. INT and GSO should largely miss out on the heaviest rain, and it will exit to the east by early tomorrow morning, allowing for ceilings there to gradually lift to MVFR and maybe even VFR by the end of the TAF period. Farther east, the showers will persist through tomorrow morning, and ceilings may only slightly improve to IFR. Outlook: Widespread showers will exit to the east by early afternoon tomorrow, but isolated showers and storms remain possible through the rest of the day especially east before we dry out in the evening. VFR conditions will return from west to east Thursday afternoon and evening and continue into Monday. Gusty winds of 20-30 kts are expected each day from Thu into Sat, from the N on Thu, from the W/NW on Fri, and from the SW on Sat.
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&& .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Thursday evening for NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hartfield/KCP NEAR TERM...Danco SHORT TERM...KCP LONG TERM...JT AVIATION...Danco

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