Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 161808

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1100 AM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018

A backdoor cold front will push south into central NC early this
afternoon, then stall across the area through Saturday. An area of
low pressure will cross the area Saturday night, dragging the front
southward. This will allow an area of cooler high pressure to build
into the Carolinas on Sunday.


As of 1100 AM Friday...

A weak surface front draped west-to-east near the Virgina border
will edge south into the northern tier counties as an upper short
wave races across the area and offshore early this afternoon.
Meanwhile, skies will remain mostly clear, with winds picking up
from the west as mixing deepens. Gusts to 25 mph are expected, which
will elevate fire danger somewhat given low humidities and drying
fuels. Have nudged temperatures up given a warm start on the day and
fast rise exhibited after sunrise. Temps should touch the low 70s
south/east with lower 60s prevalent in the Triad/Northern Piedmont.
Mid to Upper-Level Clouds will overspread from west to east after
dusk as a developing low progresses east toward the area.


As of 300 AM Friday...

The front will begin to lift northward as a warm front ahead of the
approaching system toward daybreak Saturday. As a result, southerly
warm, moist advection will begin, allowing for an increase in both
cloud cover and precipitation chances from the west early Saturday
morning. Precipitation amounts don`t look too impressive across our
area, as the surface low occludes over the Ohio River Valley. Best
chance of light precipitation arrives Saturday afternoon and
overnight into Sunday morning as the remnants of the Low shifts
overhead. In all, less than a quarter inch of rain is expected
across the forecast area, with the higher amounts likely across the
Northern Piedmont. Temperatures will remain seasonal, with 60s
prevalent Saturday afternoon and lows dipping into the upper
30s/lower 40s overnight into Sunday morning.


As of 330 AM Friday...

Sunday will see precipitation clear out and a fairly decent day take
shape as high pressure moves over the state. Highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s with partly cloudy skies. On Monday, attention will turn
to the first of several low pressure systems that will affect the
area through the work week as another deep eastern CONUS upper
trough forms. The first surface low is progged to track south of the
area but how far north the precipitation spreads is in question with
the GFS offering a dry solution for Monday but the EC solution much
wetter. Temperatures will be somewhat dependent upon how the
precipitation plays out but expect lower 50s across the north to
near 60 degrees in the south.

There is more certainty with the follow up system that we will begin
to see significant rain early Tuesday morning as a second low
pressure system develops along the NC coast. Expect a wet day
Tuesday with a half of an inch to an inch of rain possible. Temps in
the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday and Thursday will also feature
slight chances for precipitation, this time with the upper level low
that meanders along our northern border before lifting off to the
northeast and providing support for yet another nor`easter off of
the New England coast. Temps both days in the 50s.


As of 200 PM Friday...

24-Hour TAF Period: VFR conditions will continue across all TAF
sites through 18Z Saturday. A cold front will push south of the area
and stall, with west to northwest winds gusting 20 to 25 knots
through sunset. An upper disturbance will move across the mountains
along the stalled frontal zone early Saturday, with increasing mid
level clouds and perhaps some patchy light rain out of the mid
cloudiness over the west towards mid day.

Looking ahead: Stronger upper level disturbances tracking ESE across
the area and along the frontal zone will bring increasing chances
for sub-VFR conditions late tomorrow/tomorrow. VFR conditions may
return briefly Sun, then another threat of sub-VFR conditions is
possible on Monday likely persisting into the middle of next week.
Confidence is not high during the Sat-Mon time frame, with wide
variation among models regarding timing of these disturbances, so
aviation interests should check back for the latest.





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