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000
FXUS65 KREV 021022
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
222 AM PST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...

Above average high temperatures will prevail this week with the
warmest day most likely on Friday. It will be dry except for light
snow showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in western Mono
County, as low pressure pushes across southern Nevada. Winds
increase by late week, followed by cooler temperatures and chances
for rain and snow for the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

The quiet start to March will continue for the next few days, with
the main difference being widespread mid-high level cloud cover
today and Wednesday, and slightly cooler high temperatures in
contrast to the sunny Monday. The flatter ridge axis over the
eastern Great Basin along with deep south flow aloft ahead of a
closed low well off the CA coast will draw in this mid-high level
moisture.

This low is then projected to track inland over far southern CA-NV
late Wednesday. Much of the model/ensemble guidance remains
consistent in generating a small area of snow showers near the
Sierra Crest over western Mono County, possibly extending into
southern Alpine County Wednesday afternoon-early evening. Mountain
communities including Mammoth and June Lakes and the surrounding
peaks could see 1-3" of snowfall, but little or no snow is
expected to accumulate on US-395 in Mono County. Elsewhere, no
rain or snow is expected through midweek as a dry air mass
prevails near the surface, while the upper forcing associated
with the low remains too far south.

For Wednesday night-Thursday, after the low exits to the Rockies,
another ridge axis rebuilds over the Sierra and moves eastward
across the Great Basin with less cloud cover overhead. A moderate
south to southwest flow returns to the Sierra with some breezes
mixing into the valleys Thursday afternoon, leading to some
warming into the lower 60s. MJD

.LONG TERM...Friday through early next week...

Friday is shaping up to be the mildest day of the week when high
temperatures could reach the mid-60s across western Nevada valleys
and nearing the 70 degree mark in Fallon and Lovelock. How much
we warm up will depend on the incoming cloud cover ahead of the
next low pressure system expected late Friday into Saturday. This
low will also kick up winds ahead of its arrival Friday afternoon,
with gusty S-SW winds developing mainly across Lassen County into
the Surprise Valley and northern Washoe County.

Saturday`s system will be a quick moving shortwave that may
create some travel impacts across Sierra passes while dropping a
few inches of snow. Timing is favoring early Saturday morning for
seeing snow across the Sierra. Snow amounts along the passes are
looking at around 2-4". Confidence isn`t the highest at this time
as the low is showing some splitting tendency in addition to
coming in with a negative tilt. As such, could see a scenario
where the Tahoe Basin trends down a bit with snow potential while
Mono County sees some slightly higher odds for snow if the trough
continues to dig farther south. The negative tilt may also
introduce localized heavier rates as instability increases.
Nonetheless, only talking a few inches of snow but still enough
for impacts on the passes.

Only expecting brief, light spillover showers across western Nevada
on Saturday but what we lack in precipitation may materialize into
gusty west winds as a surface gradient intensifies.

Overall the pattern heading into next week looks to remain unsettled
with ensemble scenarios maintaining troughing across the eastern
Pacific. This may keep the path open for additional colder, but
modest moisture systems to track across the West. Timing is a bit up
in the air at this time, but additional weaker to moderate end
troughs could push through the region the first half of next week,
with bouts of gusty winds and snowfall across the Sierra and
western Nevada. Fuentes

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions continue today with light E/SE breezes and increasing
high clouds through the afternoon. An area of low pressure passing
through southern California may clip the southern Sierra on
Wednesday. As a result, a few light snow showers may be possible in
the mountains but the main impact looks to be mountain top
obscuration Wednesday afternoon as cloud cover thickens and lowers
mainly in the Sierra west of KMMH. Fuentes

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

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http://weather.gov/reno