Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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000 FXUS65 KREV 021022 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 222 AM PST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Above average high temperatures will prevail this week with the warmest day most likely on Friday. It will be dry except for light snow showers Wednesday afternoon and evening in western Mono County, as low pressure pushes across southern Nevada. Winds increase by late week, followed by cooler temperatures and chances for rain and snow for the weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... The quiet start to March will continue for the next few days, with the main difference being widespread mid-high level cloud cover today and Wednesday, and slightly cooler high temperatures in contrast to the sunny Monday. The flatter ridge axis over the eastern Great Basin along with deep south flow aloft ahead of a closed low well off the CA coast will draw in this mid-high level moisture. This low is then projected to track inland over far southern CA-NV late Wednesday. Much of the model/ensemble guidance remains consistent in generating a small area of snow showers near the Sierra Crest over western Mono County, possibly extending into southern Alpine County Wednesday afternoon-early evening. Mountain communities including Mammoth and June Lakes and the surrounding peaks could see 1-3" of snowfall, but little or no snow is expected to accumulate on US-395 in Mono County. Elsewhere, no rain or snow is expected through midweek as a dry air mass prevails near the surface, while the upper forcing associated with the low remains too far south. For Wednesday night-Thursday, after the low exits to the Rockies, another ridge axis rebuilds over the Sierra and moves eastward across the Great Basin with less cloud cover overhead. A moderate south to southwest flow returns to the Sierra with some breezes mixing into the valleys Thursday afternoon, leading to some warming into the lower 60s. MJD .LONG TERM...Friday through early next week... Friday is shaping up to be the mildest day of the week when high temperatures could reach the mid-60s across western Nevada valleys and nearing the 70 degree mark in Fallon and Lovelock. How much we warm up will depend on the incoming cloud cover ahead of the next low pressure system expected late Friday into Saturday. This low will also kick up winds ahead of its arrival Friday afternoon, with gusty S-SW winds developing mainly across Lassen County into the Surprise Valley and northern Washoe County. Saturday`s system will be a quick moving shortwave that may create some travel impacts across Sierra passes while dropping a few inches of snow. Timing is favoring early Saturday morning for seeing snow across the Sierra. Snow amounts along the passes are looking at around 2-4". Confidence isn`t the highest at this time as the low is showing some splitting tendency in addition to coming in with a negative tilt. As such, could see a scenario where the Tahoe Basin trends down a bit with snow potential while Mono County sees some slightly higher odds for snow if the trough continues to dig farther south. The negative tilt may also introduce localized heavier rates as instability increases. Nonetheless, only talking a few inches of snow but still enough for impacts on the passes. Only expecting brief, light spillover showers across western Nevada on Saturday but what we lack in precipitation may materialize into gusty west winds as a surface gradient intensifies. Overall the pattern heading into next week looks to remain unsettled with ensemble scenarios maintaining troughing across the eastern Pacific. This may keep the path open for additional colder, but modest moisture systems to track across the West. Timing is a bit up in the air at this time, but additional weaker to moderate end troughs could push through the region the first half of next week, with bouts of gusty winds and snowfall across the Sierra and western Nevada. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue today with light E/SE breezes and increasing high clouds through the afternoon. An area of low pressure passing through southern California may clip the southern Sierra on Wednesday. As a result, a few light snow showers may be possible in the mountains but the main impact looks to be mountain top obscuration Wednesday afternoon as cloud cover thickens and lowers mainly in the Sierra west of KMMH. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno

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