


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
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Issued by NWS Reno, NV
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --876 FXUS65 KREV 121845 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1145 AM PDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES...-- Changed Discussion --* Dangerous heat will persist through Tuesday, with widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk across lower areas of western Nevada and northeast California. * Plan on a low possibility (5-10% chance) for isolated, high-based thunderstorms through the weekend, with increasing chances for Monday and Tuesday. * Hot, dry conditions will marginally subside mid-late next week with increasing southwest to west winds.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .DISCUSSION...-- Changed Discussion --Hot/Hazy Weekend into Next Week: High pressure will be the primary contributor to the weather this weekend into early next week. Plan on well above normal temperatures with many areas exceeding 100 degrees for the lower elevations, especially Sunday and Monday. For the Sierra communities, it will be pretty hot too with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Temperatures won`t back off much overnight either with lows in the urban areas and valleys remaining quite warm. Don`t plan on much heat relief during the nighttime and take precautions to avoid the heat during the day. See the Heat Advisory for more details. Haze and upper level smoke will stick around as well, so be sure to keep an eye on the air quality at airnow.gov. Thunderstorm Potential: With the hot temperatures, it`s no surprise that the storm potential `pops` back into the equation. Daytime surface heating will promote unstable conditions at the surface and even a sliver of moisture could allow for a storm or two to arise. This morning`s sounding shows a decent amount of moisture in the vicinity airmass with PW value of 0.69 inch, which is in the 75th percentile of sounding climatology for mid July. So again, the potential doesn`t look incredible, but can`t rule out a few brief afternoon storms today and Sunday with better chances by Monday and Tuesday as high pressure recedes and a Pac NW trough edges into the region. "Cooler" conditions and Winds Return: Temperatures will start to back off a touch by late Tuesday and Wednesday as a Pac NW trough sags southward into the Sierra and northwest NV. This pattern shift will bring cooling aloft and a gradual increase in mid-level moisture. We will see the thunderstorm chances (10-20%) increase across the Sierra, northeast California, and western Nevada beginning Wednesday. This shift from high pressure to the trough will also allow for increasing W-SW flow across the region. From Tuesday onward, southwest to west afternoon winds will approach gusts of 2030 mph. -Edan-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --VFR conditions prevail through the weekend along with light winds and typical afternoon W-SW wind gusts up to 20 kts. Afternoon cumulus buildups are expected today and Sunday, with a 5-10% chance of isolated, thunderstorms each day between 21- 03Z, primarily along the Sierra crest and nearby higher terrain. Primary storm concerns will be brief outflow gusts and localized turbulence. The hot temperatures may produce density altitude concerns, especially at Sierra terminals such as KTRK, KTVL, and KMMH. Slantwise visibility reductions remain possible with haze from wildfires in northern California and southern Oregon. -Edan-- End Changed Discussion --&& .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...-- Changed Discussion --NV...Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday NVZ001-003>005. CA...Heat Advisory until 11 AM PDT Wednesday CAZ070-071.-- End Changed Discussion --&& $$