Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000 FXUS65 KRIW 020756 AFDRIW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Riverton WY 1256 AM MST Tue Mar 2 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night There are really almost no concerns for the first 42 to 48 hours of the forecast period. High pressure will continue to bring mainly dry weather with slowly moderating temperatures. There could be some patchy fog in the Green River Basin this morning. In addition, gusty winds will continue around Casper although with the pressure gradient lessening a bit, winds should be somewhat less than the past couple of days. The only somewhat active weather will come courtesy of an area of low pressure moving out of the desert southwest and tracking across Colorado. The models have come into somewhat better agreement with coverage of the precipitation. There will be a chance of some light rain and snow across Sweetwater and possibly southern Lincoln County. Impacts look minor at this point though; given that the best moisture and energy will remain south of the area. Even if there is some snow, with warmer ground temperatures and the March sun angle, accumulation may be difficult on roads during the day. The precipitation may end up being rain for the lower elevations. In addition, the best QPF looks to remain south of Interstate 80 where there are few people. All precipitation should end Thursday afternoon with dry conditions returning Thursday night. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday. Upper level riding will be in place across the Rockies on Friday with tranquil weather and above average temperatures. A trough will pull into the West Coast Friday night. Global models show the trough weakening and splitting as it pulls across the Rockies in the Saturday/Saturday night time frame. Strong southwest winds are expected in the wind corridor including the Casper area Saturday, but a widespread high wind event is not expected at this time. The associated cold front is expected to pull across the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. Any light snow looks to occur mainly along and west of the Divide and perhaps the south. A stronger trough could impact the forecast area Monday night thru Wednesday time frame depending upon the model. The upper jet strength and position would be more supportive of heavier precipitation across the forecast area than the one that occurs during the weekend. The overall system is a bit fast, and the progged 700mb low is too far north for a widespread significant winter storm at the moment. Seasonal to above average temperatures are expected through the long term. && .AVIATION...12Z Issuance 95 percent of the region will remain VFR through the next 24 hours with clear skies. That final 5 percent is for a slightly greater possibility at KBPI and KPNA for some morning fog through about 16Z. Winds will be light for most l=places Tuesday, except for KCPR which will remain gusty tonight and through most of the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will continue to bring dry weather through most of Wednesday night. A gusty will continue in similar spots to Monday, but will be somewhat less strong than yesterday. Relative humidity will remain above critical levels. Mixing and smoke dispersal will be generally fair to poor. The next chance of rain or snow will be Wednesday night but would likely be confined to far southern Wyoming. && .RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hattings LONG TERM...Murrell AVIATION...Straub FIRE WEATHER...Hattings

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