531
FXUS61 KRLX 140236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1036 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue into the new work week as a warm and
moist airmass remains in place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1035 PM Sunday...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms remains to the west
ahead of a front that will be sinking south overnight. CAMs show
them weakening as they enter the area, which radar suggests this
solution currently too as showers start to enter our northeastern
KY counties. Models remain conservative with PoPs as well, though
did increase them some along our western periphery overnight where
there is higher confidence for some more organized showers to move
through.

As of 827 PM Sunday...

No changes needed to the forecast. Radar shows a few cells
remaining at this hour, but overall seeing a decline in strength
with the loss of diurnal heating.

As of 1125 AM Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon, especially across the higher elevations of eastern
West Virginia. Short-term model guidance consistently shows PWAT
values reaching 1.75-2.00 area-wide. While severe weather is
unlikely due to a lack of significant wind shear, an isolated
stronger storm or two could develop, bringing localized
damaging wind gusts.

A cold front will slowly approach the Ohio River Monday, with a 60-
70% chance of stalling along or just west of the river. The NBM
model has shown increased confidence in this stalling, leading to a
higher probability (50-70%) of increased PoPs across the region for
Monday afternoon. Heavy downpours remain a concern with PWATs
expected to be at or around 2.00. However, storms should be moving
fast enough ahead of the front to prevent widespread flooding
issues. An alternate scenario for Monday is the front pushing
further east into West Virginia, which could lead to drier
conditions along and west of the Ohio River. However, this
alternate scenario does not look likely.

Expect high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and
Monday with dew points reaching the middle 70s. Staying hydrated and
taking breaks in air conditioning will be necessary when spending
extended time outdoors.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1128 AM Sunday...

For Tuesday, there is a 40-60% probability of rain, primarily
concentrated over the mountains. This represents an increase from
yesterday`s 10-30% probability, likely influenced by the high-
pressure center`s projected position just east of the Appalachians
and lingering upper-level energy. Wednesday presents similar
probabilities for showers and thunderstorms due to a comparable
atmospheric setup. Both days carry an elevated probability of heavy
downpours within any developing storms, with precipitable water
values ranging from 1.60-1.80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1129 AM Sunday...

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are highly probable from
Thursday through Saturday. A high-pressure system along the
Southeast U.S. coastline will channel significant Gulf moisture into
the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. While models
generally indicate a front approaching the Ohio River between
Thursday and Saturday, there is inconsistency regarding its precise
timing.

Based on the latest runs from the NBM, ECMWF, and GFS, the most
probable scenario (supported by a majority of recent model runs,
especially the NBM and more recent GFS runs) is that the front
stalls over our region, leading to continued rain chances into next
weekend. A less likely alternate scenario (supported by earlier
model iterations and some ECMWF variability, though it now leans
towards stalling) suggests the front pushes through more
definitively. This could temporarily decrease rain chances after the
frontal passage before renewed moisture advection.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 730 PM Sunday...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for a few more
hours, but will dramatically wane with loss of diurnal heating.
Restrictions are possible with any thunderstorms.

Valley fog is expected to form overnight, especially for
locations that received rain today. IFR conditions or lower are
most likely to form at CRW, PKB, EKN, and CKB. Most fog will
dissipate by ~12z if not earlier due to cloud cover.

A cold front will also be approaching from the west after ~06z
allowing for a low stratus deck to filter in early Monday
morning. Scattered morning showers and eventually afternoon
thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front.

Winds will be light and SW-W`rly through the period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms could vary from the forecast. Coverage, density
and extent of fog tonight may vary given recent rainfall and
cloud cover overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 07/14/25
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR river valley fog possible during the overnights.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC