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000
FXUS61 KRLX 141027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
627 AM EDT Wed Apr 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front later today and tonight. Unsettled weather at times
possible through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 AM Wednesday...

Sped up POPs this morning in coverage along the northern tier of
counties. Minor temperature adjustments going into the
afternoon, but the overall pattern is the same.

As of 215 AM Wednesday...

Next closed upper level low aloft will be taking a similar track
to the previous system, west to east through the Great Lakes
and then a southeastward turn towards the mid Atlantic coast.
Cyclogenesis at the surface produces a cold front that will
slowly drop into the Ohio Valley later today and into tonight.
Meanwhile, a baroclinic zone/nearly stationary boundary will
creep northward, residing just southeast of the CWA, and will
have a surface low tracking along it during the near term
period. All of this puts the CWA in a squeeze play. A band of
mid level frontogenesis develops later this morning, and will
see a line of showers as a result just north/west of the Ohio
River. This line of showers is already beginning to appear in
the ILN CWA. F-gen pushes southeastward this afternoon and this
evening into the mountains, while expanding in coverage. POPs
increase during this time, aided by brief periods of PVA in the
flow aloft. The trailing cold front will renew POPs in the
northeast mountains 06Z to 12Z Thursday. While instability
continues to be lacking, along with a good low level moisture
feed into the area of lift, the concentration and duration of
showers moving through has resulted in a modest increase in QPF
from the forecast 24 hours ago. Should be manageable in a
hydrologic sense, with a broader area in the half inch range for
the mountains.

Temperatures will be lower as a result of the precipitation
today. The northwestern zones in SE OH could have an afternoon
rebound once the showers depart and front passes with late
clearing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM Wednesday...

The aforementioned upper level low will continue to affect the
area through the short term period before it finally moves off
to the east coast by the weekend. Scattered showers will be
possible through Friday morning for the northeastern portion of
the area where the greatest moisture will be. Overall, most of
the precipitation should fall as rain, however can`t rule out
the possibility for snow showers for the higher elevations
Thursday night if temperatures cool down enough. Expecting
little to no snow accumulations, however a light dusting could
be possible along the higher elevations where temperatures are
expected to fall below freezing. The remainder of the area
should be predominantly dry through the short term period as
drier air edges in and surface high pressure moves along just to
the south.

Expecting Thursday to be the chilliest day of the period as
cooler air filters in behind a cold front passing through on
Wednesday night. Temperatures will be below normal and will
likely remain below 60 areawide on Thursday. Will continue to
monitor for the potential for frost Thursday night as lows will
fall into the mid to upper 30s across the lowlands.
Temperatures will continue to be below normal for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 310 AM Wednesday...

Weak upper level ridging will move in Friday night into
Saturday providing a brief dry period. Additionally, surface
high pressure will push through aiding in keeping the area dry.
The GFS and ECMWF bring light precipitation chances back to the
region Saturday afternoon as they show weak upper troughing
approaching the area. The Canadian shows some semblance of a
weak trough as well but largely flattens out this feature by
the time it reaches the area while keeping the area dry through
Saturday and much of Sunday. With the GFS and ECMWF leaning
towards at least some chance for precipitation, have left slight
chances in the forecast at this time.

The models then bring an upper level disturbance toward the
area Sunday into Monday, followed by another, deeper upper
level trough into the middle of the week. The Canadian is
currently a bit quicker with this trough than the GFS and ECMWF.
These upper level features will continue to provide
precipitation chances into the next work week. Temperatures will
remain on the cooler side through the long term period with a
gradual warming trend into the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 625 AM Wednesday...

Showers already beginning to overspread ahead of a cold front
that will be slow to enter the region today and push through
tonight. As they do so, expect ceilings that are primarily mid
deck at this hour to lower and drop to MVFR, and depending on
the terminal locations, IFR is not out of the question for a
period of time in the forecast. This has a better chance of
occurring at CRW/CKB/EKN/BKW. Showers slow to exit northwest to
southeast across the Ohio River and into the mountains.
Visibilities to vary in showers, and visibilities may actually
drop to IFR for a couple of hours after rain ends. No thunder
in the forecast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and lowering ceilings may
vary slightly from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    M    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/CG
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...26