-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
070
FXUS61 KRLX 130950
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
550 AM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and
thunderstorms continue as a warm and moist airmass remains in
place.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 545 AM Sunday...

Added a slight chance for showers in southern West Virginia and
southwest Virginia as some showers have formed there.


As of 1230 AM Sunday...

Warm, moist and humid air will allow for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to form this afternoon. A cold front will push
into the area from the northwest this afternoon and tonight,
before stalling over the region. Some showers and thunderstorms
may continue Sunday night, especially along the front.

Precipitable water values will increase to over 2 inches in
southern portions of the forecast area today. This combined with
the cold front serving as a possible focusing mechanism leads to
concerns for the potential of localized flash flooding.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 AM Sunday...

A wave associated with an upper level trough will move along a
stalled front across the area . This wave will cross the area
on Monday, enhancing the chances for showers and thunderstorms
and pushing the front a bit further south.

The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday with
more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Sunday...

Models are struggling with the timing of disturbances for the
end of the work week, but models agree that a moist and unstable
atmosphere will remain over the region. This will lead to
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, with some
outside the diurnal pattern when disturbances move across the
area. Models continue to struggle for Friday and Saturday with
a potential cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 1230 AM Sunday...

River valley fog in and near the mountains will dissipate
quickly this morning. A cumulus deck will form during the day
with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will be aided by
a cold front that will push into the area from the northwest
this afternoon and tonight, before stalling over the region.
Some showers and thunderstorms may continue tonight, especially
along the front. Fog is possible in areas receiving rainfall
and in river valleys tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this morning, then medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
showers and thunderstorms could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/13/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
IFR river valley fog possible during the overnights.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...RPY