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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 041147
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
647 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds today through the weekend, then gives way
to southwest flow early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 645 AM Thursday...

Cold front was through most of the area as of early this
morning. Stratocu had filled in along the ridges and western
slopes of the northern mountains, but appeared to not have
precipitated anything yet.

As of 300 AM Thursday...

Stratocu was starting to form in the northern mountains, as low
level west to northwest upslope flow had increased in response
to a cold front crossing the area overnight. However, the front
was finding it hard to squeeze moisture from the stone that is
the very dry air mass in place ahead of it. Still carried a
slight chance for snow showers in the northern mountains today,
as the cold advection behind the front should be able to
squeeze something out below the frontal inversion, especially
once the top of the cloud, at the inversion just above h85, gets
cold enough to support sublimation rather than condensation, -8
to -10 C. Expect nothing more than a coating of snow on the
very highest ridges, if that.

The slight chance for a northern mountain snow shower or flurry
continues tonight, as it gets even colder, until the cloud
becomes too shallow as drier air arrives. Otherwise, much of
the lowlands should return to abundant sunshine this afternoon,
and remain mostly clear tonight.

Momentum transfer in the mixed layer can bring wind gusts into
the 35 to 40 mph range again later today into tonight across
the ridges.

Temperatures close to central guidance, a bit higher than
previous forecast for highs today with early March mixing, and a
little lower in the valleys tonight than previous/central. Wind
chills atop the ridges will fall into the single digits either
side of zero tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

Cold nights and cool days through Sunday as the region remains on
the eastern periphery of surface high pressure amid northwest flow
aloft. Couldn`t rule out squeezing out a few flakes in the mountains
Saturday with a little moisture sourced from the Great Lakes
streaming into the region amid northwesterly low level flow, but
chances not high enough to justify any PoPs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 AM Thursday...

Surface high pressure gradually shifts overhead by Sunday night with
more mild conditions resuming as southwesterly flow strengthens. A
more active pattern looks to resume by mid-week with the first in a
parade of systems arriving Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 645 AM Thursday...

Cold front was through most of the area as of early this
morning. Stratocu had filled in along the ridges and western
slopes of the northern mountains, but appeared to not have
precipitated anything yet.

The bases had lowered to 2-3 kft early this morning, and
ceilings are most likely at EKN this morning, but also possible
at CKB and BKW, before breaking up this afternoon. There could
be a brief snow shower or two at EKN this morning or this
evening. Stratocu will persist in and near the mountains
tonight, but it is expected to remain scattered, and VFR
conditions should generally prevail this afternoon and tonight.

Northwest surface flow will be gusty at times today into
tonight, in the 15 to 20 kt range. Flow aloft will be light to
moderate northwest through tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR stratocu in and near the
mountains could vary. Gusty winds will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 03/04/21
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...TRM