Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191319 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 919 AM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Warmer south to southwest flow around high pressure to the south today through Tuesday. Strong cold front Wednesday. High pressure late week, followed by a wet system this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 915 AM Monday... Added showers over the western zones with the vort max/trough axis rolling in. May need to expand this eastward in the next update. As of 640 AM Monday... Forecast on track, with nothing more than isolated light showers grazing far southeastern portions of the forecast area early this morning. As of 355 AM Monday... A deep mixed layer to h75 prevails this period, maintaining a dry boundary layer that allows RH values to dip into the 20s this afternoon, but amid light flow. An upper level short wave trough exiting first thing this morning, will take isolated showers skirting southeast portions of the area with it. Meanwhile, there may be a touch of valley frost in east-central Ohio early this morning. Otherwise, a nice spring day is on tap as high pressure builds south of the area in the wake of the exiting short wave. The deep mixed layer, and h85 temperatures of at least 5-6C, support lowland highs of 68-70 amid rather uniform low level thermal fields. Favored the higher MOS over the lower central guidance and previous forecast. Unlike Sunday morning, the deep mixed layer will preclude the low morning stratocu. A mainly clear and tranquil night is on tap tonight, with light south to southwest flow across the area, north of the high. This will promote somewhat of a ridge valley split, and otherwise again close to a MOS blend on average. With the bottom of the column so dry, fog should by and large be precluded again tonight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 358 AM Monday... STRONG COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY... Enjoy Tuesday`s weather as a blast of winter is set to occur for Wednesday. Strengthening SSW low level flow Tuesday will aid in good diurnal mixing and associated sfc warming across the entire region. Given the expected mixing, increasingly higher mid-April sun angle, and rather dry soil moistures our afternoon highs should easily warm into the 70s for nearly all locations below 2kft (50s/60s for the mountains). By Tuesday evening, a powerful cold front will be knocking on our northwest doorstep with a deepening sfc low shifting NE roughly along the Ohio River. This will aid in a strengthening LLJ overnight and allow for temps to remain rather mild for much of the night. The front should rapidly cross from NW to SE during the second half of the night and be moving into (or possibly already cleared) the mountains by sunrise Wed. Rain showers will likely accompany the front, but brevity of the precip should result in rather low rainfall amounts. Mild temps ahead of the front will crash after FROPA with temps likely continuing to fall through at least late morning for the lower elevations (and fall the entire day for elevations roughly 3kft or higher). Given this, there should be a small one to three hour window late Wed morning where the entire region is in the 30s. Temps for the lower elevations should then moderate slightly (low 40s) during the afternoon. As temps fall during the morning, rain showers may briefly mix with snow showers for the lower elevations...and transition to all snow showers for the highest elevations. Again, precip duration should be rather brief and minimal to nil snow accumulations are expected for the mountains. A cold night will occur Wednesday night as strong sfc high pressure tries to build into the area. Given expected cloud cover and continued near sfc wind flow, I have not gone as cold as some guidance indicates. Still, some locations where the growing season has already begun will likely experience a brief light advection freeze around sunrise Thursday. Thursday itself will still be rather cool. Isolated to scattered rain and snow (mountains) showers will likely dot the area during the day as the final/parent H5 s/w trough axis advects across. Calmer sfc winds and clearer skies Thurs night may allow another night with temperatures around freezing. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 406 AM Monday... Friday should be a rather quiet weather day as high pressure slowly shifts east and temperatures start to moderate better. Forecast certainty then decreases significantly for the upcoming weekend. All guidance suites indicate another storm system will impact our area Saturday into Sunday. There continues to be significant discrepancies with synoptic feature placement and timing, but there are good signals for wet weather to impact the area at times over the weekend. && .AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 640 AM Monday... VFR conditions are expected this period, with scattered high stratocu / low altocu atop a deep mixed layer. Light and variable to nil surface flow early this morning will become light west today, and then light southwest tonight. Light west to northwest flow aloft this morning will become light west to southwest this afternoon and tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 EDT 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in showers Wednesday morning, mainly on ceilings. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/TRM NEAR TERM...26/TRM SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...RH AVIATION...TRM

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