Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 041147 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 647 AM EST Thu Mar 4 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today through the weekend, then gives way to southwest flow early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM Thursday... Cold front was through most of the area as of early this morning. Stratocu had filled in along the ridges and western slopes of the northern mountains, but appeared to not have precipitated anything yet. As of 300 AM Thursday... Stratocu was starting to form in the northern mountains, as low level west to northwest upslope flow had increased in response to a cold front crossing the area overnight. However, the front was finding it hard to squeeze moisture from the stone that is the very dry air mass in place ahead of it. Still carried a slight chance for snow showers in the northern mountains today, as the cold advection behind the front should be able to squeeze something out below the frontal inversion, especially once the top of the cloud, at the inversion just above h85, gets cold enough to support sublimation rather than condensation, -8 to -10 C. Expect nothing more than a coating of snow on the very highest ridges, if that. The slight chance for a northern mountain snow shower or flurry continues tonight, as it gets even colder, until the cloud becomes too shallow as drier air arrives. Otherwise, much of the lowlands should return to abundant sunshine this afternoon, and remain mostly clear tonight. Momentum transfer in the mixed layer can bring wind gusts into the 35 to 40 mph range again later today into tonight across the ridges. Temperatures close to central guidance, a bit higher than previous forecast for highs today with early March mixing, and a little lower in the valleys tonight than previous/central. Wind chills atop the ridges will fall into the single digits either side of zero tonight. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 AM Thursday... Cold nights and cool days through Sunday as the region remains on the eastern periphery of surface high pressure amid northwest flow aloft. Couldn`t rule out squeezing out a few flakes in the mountains Saturday with a little moisture sourced from the Great Lakes streaming into the region amid northwesterly low level flow, but chances not high enough to justify any PoPs. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 125 AM Thursday... Surface high pressure gradually shifts overhead by Sunday night with more mild conditions resuming as southwesterly flow strengthens. A more active pattern looks to resume by mid-week with the first in a parade of systems arriving Wednesday night into Thursday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 645 AM Thursday... Cold front was through most of the area as of early this morning. Stratocu had filled in along the ridges and western slopes of the northern mountains, but appeared to not have precipitated anything yet. The bases had lowered to 2-3 kft early this morning, and ceilings are most likely at EKN this morning, but also possible at CKB and BKW, before breaking up this afternoon. There could be a brief snow shower or two at EKN this morning or this evening. Stratocu will persist in and near the mountains tonight, but it is expected to remain scattered, and VFR conditions should generally prevail this afternoon and tonight. Northwest surface flow will be gusty at times today into tonight, in the 15 to 20 kt range. Flow aloft will be light to moderate northwest through tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR stratocu in and near the mountains could vary. Gusty winds will fluctuate. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 03/04/21 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M L M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H M H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...TRM

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