Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 232302 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 702 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Dry cold front pushing through tonight. High pressure then dominates through mid week. Low pressure brings wet weather Friday through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM Tuesday... Other than the breezy conditions and lower level moisture/cloud deck dropping in from the north behind another dry cold front, no significant weather in the forecast for the near term. After a mild fall day, temperatures drop into the 30s lowlands/20s mountains tonight. High pressure influences remain strong through the day Wednesday, but temperature recovery will not be as good during the day, and below normal values area wide expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 340 PM Tuesday... Canadian high pressure settles in from the north Wednesday night, bringing clear, calm conditions, and yet another frosty/freezing morning come dawn Thursday. The high retreats Thursday and Thursday night, as a northern stream trough along the east coast lifts out, and a southern stream system approaches from the southwest. This will bring increasing high and then mid cloud during this time. Models are trending a bit faster with the southern stream system, which is progged to have multiple embedded short waves as it migrates from the intermountain west into the eastern U.S., picking up the remnants of Willa as it does. The result at the surface is a Miller-B system, the eastern surface low center becoming the main center as it reaches the southeast coast Friday afternoon. The coastal center then tracks up the middle Atlantic seaboard Friday night. While the heaviest of the rain is modeled close to the coast with the main center /the influence of the moisture of Willa perhaps even farther east/, rain should overspread the area from the south beginning first thing Friday morning, if not before dawn, with wet weather likely for the entire area before the day is out. Temperatures nay bottom out close to freezing in the northern mountain valleys Thursday night. Have lows there just above freezing, but if temperatures are at or below freezing when the rain, given warmer air aloft, arrives, it could freeze on colder surfaces. The heaviest of the rain will be in and along the east slopes of the mountains, where an inch to an inch and a half are possible Friday through Friday night. This should be hydrologically manageable, even if an inch occurs within a six hour period. Temperatures in the northern mountains may bottom out close to freezing, in the mid 30s, again Friday night, but it will still be warm aloft. After the cold start Thursday, highs remain below normal, but lows get back to normal as the system favors smaller temperature ranges that average only a little below normal beneath the southern stream. Again, will have to watch mountain valley temperatures closely as the rain arrives late overnight Thursday night / early Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 145 PM Tuesday... The heaviest of the rain moves out Saturday, as the coastal surface center moves off to the northeast, and the western center slowly fills over the middle Ohio Valley. However, the weather is likely to remain overcast and damp over the weekend, as a northern stream system drops in to reinforce the southern stream trough, carving out a deeper eastern U.S. trough by Monday. Colder air comes in Sunday night, with upslope snow showers likely in the mountains by Monday in northwest flow. The system starts to move east on Tuesday, allowing high pressure, with drier air, to build in from the southwest. Temperatures remain below normal on highs but near normal on lows in the absence of radiative cooling and an air mass still a polar- Pacific blend. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 700 PM Tuesday... VFR conditions can be expected this evening. Some MVFR clouds may develop in northeastern WV on the western side of the mountains later tonight. These clouds should lift into a VFR cumulus deck on Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cloud heights late tonight could be higher or lower than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 00Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in rain Friday night into Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/TRM NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...TRM LONG TERM...TRM AVIATION...RPY

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