Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 210710 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 310 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak front across the area moves northward today. New cold front crosses Tuesday night. High pressure mid- late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 240 AM Monday... A frontal boundary across the region should push back northward today, with some showers or thunderstorms possibly forming this morning over central Ohio and northern WV. More numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon in the warm sector south of the front as moisture increases. Models showing sufficient cape in OH, KY, and western WV that some damaging hail and/or winds are a possibility. As a cold front edges closer to the area Monday night, models indicate that showers and thunderstorms could form in advance of the front, especially over the western and northern portions of the forecast area.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 255 AM Monday... Rounds of showers and storms Tuesday ahead of an approaching s/w trof. SPC has much of southeast Ohio outlooked in marginal for late Tuesday, tied closer to the upper trof axis where better deep layer shear will exist along with better instability. The trof axis and associated cold front will cross late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with drier air advecting in for the afternoon. High pressure builds in from the north Wednesday night and Thursday with a more comfortable airmass for folks to enjoy. There probably will be some dense river valley fog around Thursday morning.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 300 AM Monday... High pressure moves east of the area Friday and Saturday, allowing a return southerly flow of increasingly warm and humid air. This will bring the threat for mainly diurnally driven showers/storms across southwest Virginia and southeast West Virginia Friday, with everyone else remaining dry. It appears our holiday weekend is shaping up to be unsettled. A tropical system meandering along the northern Gulf coast will combine with return from from the upper ridge off the southeast coast and an approaching upper level trof for rounds of showers/storms over the weekend. PWATS surge to near 2 inches on Sunday with downpours potentially adding to a flooding concern.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 AM Monday... Some patchy fog will develop overnight, with the best chances for dense fog in protected valleys close to the mountains. Also can`t rule out a few showers or thunderstorms developing late tonight over northern WV and central Ohio. A cumulus deck will form today with showers and thunderstorms developing during the afternoon hours, creating brief IFR conditions. Some showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible Monday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low on fog development and density. Otherwise, High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Development and density of fog overnight could vary. Timing and restrictions with convection could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 05/21/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L L H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M H H H H M AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms Monday night and Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY

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