Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241124 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 624 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Weak system brings periods of rain today and tonight. Stronger system Wednesday into Wednesday night bring additional chances of rain, snow, and gusty winds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 620 AM Monday... Made some tweaks to morning/afternoon PoPs to reflect drier short cycle guidance. Still could see mainly light rain/virga with initial wave, especially far south, but now looking like minimal accumulating rain through the daylight hours further north. As of 140 AM Monday... Keeping temperatures on track has been a struggle this morning with varying cloud cover and a heavy ridge/valley split in areas that have cleared. More clouds moving in should serve to arrest any additional significant cooling and have tried to reflect this in the current package. Could see a initial rain/snow mix in some of the far southern colder valleys as the column wet bulbs down, but would not expect any accumulations. Leading shortwave embedded in weak anticyclonic flow approaching central Kentucky at this hour will provide a focus for an initial round of light rain this morning, mainly over our southern half. Given rather an initially rather dry sub-cloud layer, thinking mostly virga through the first couple hours after sunrise for most with our southwest VA and eastern Kentucky counties seeing the best chances of measurable precipitation. Should see lesser chances of measurable precipitation with the initial round of rain further north and east as the wave washes out, but additional virga will serve to moisten the column for the second round this evening. Have maintained some low end PoPs on this back end of the leading wave through the afternoon hours, but day shift may be able to trim this back a bit with a few hours of dry conditions possible, mainly from early afternoon into the late afternoon. Rain chances increase to categorical area wide this evening in warm air advection ahead of a surface low following along the lower Ohio River Valley with rain persisting into Tuesday morning. Total rainfall accumulations through the near term will be in the quarter to half inch range, with some slightly higher totals possible along the middle Ohio Valley as the surface low tracks just southwest. Given recent dry weather and modest rainfall totals, do not anticipate any hydrological concerns. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 246 AM Monday... Back edge of precip should shift from southwest to northeast rather fast Tuesday morning as drier air around H85 spreads northeast into the region. Pressure gradient is prog to remain quasi-tight during the day with noticeably breezy conditions likely at times. Enough diurnal mixing may lead to some partial clearing in the afternoon, which will likely help boost sfc high temps into the 60s for the lower elevations. Southwest low level flow Tuesday night should allow for 40s to be common for overnight lows (aside from the mountains). Rather quiet wx conditions should also prevail as lack of deep layer moisture will preclude much in the way of precip overnight. Moisture rapidly flows back northward across the CWA on Wednesday ahead of a strong deep layer trough and associated sfc cold front. Rain should develop Wed morning across the western CWA and quickly spread/shift east during the afternoon. How warm temps become during the day will be dependent on timing of FROPA, but am fairly confident temps will gradually fall during the afternoon with the onset of cold air advection. Blustery conditions along with a faster fall of temps should occur Wed night as H85 front pushes east followed by the parent mid level trough axis. Post frontal rain showers/bands will mix with and eventually switch over to snow showers overnight. Guidance differs regarding how fast low/mid level moisture pulls out of the area...and as such precip coverage overnight may ultimately be greater/lesser than what is currently forecast. Minor accumulations of snow should occur overnight for many of the lower elevations of West Virginia (possibly for SE OH too if moisture sticks around long enough). A few inches will be possible for area/regional mountains. Thursday looks to be rather cold as cold air advection continues with highs for many areas only briefing reaching/exceeding the freezing mark. A few snow showers may occur during the day, but again it`s dependent on how long moisture does/does not stay around. Went with some partial clearing occurring on Thursday, especially if enough mixing can occur. Wind chill values will feel rather frigid Wed night and Thursday with lower elevations experiencing a prolonged period of readings in the teens/20s with values quickly lowering the higher in elevation one goes. The highest mountain ridges could experience wind chill values of less than zero late Wed night and Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 240 AM Monday... A combination of high pressure building in at the surface and the continued eastward progression of an upper level trough should result in a mostly dry weekend; however, models do indicate a disturbance could bring a brief chance of precipitation early on in the weekend. Strong wind gusts are possible especially toward the beginning of the long term period. Transport of cold air into the area will likely keep temperatures below normal throughout the weekend. Highs should range from 30s to low 40s in the lowlands and 20s to 30s in the mountains. Low temperatures are expected to be in the teens and 20s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 620 AM Monday... VFR ceilings this morning give way to MVFR ceilings this afternoon as virga/light rain moving through the region progressively moistens the column. Minimal rain accumulations/visibility restrictions are expected through the daylight hours given rather dry low levels still in place. The main body of precipitation moves into the region this evening and continues through the end of this set of TAFs with ceilings decreasing to near IFR by 06Z. Winds generally light, 5 to 9KTs from the south. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of progressively worsening ceilings through the afternoon hours may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 02/24/20 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Lingering IFR ceilings possible Tuesday morning. IFR possible Wednesday and Thursday in rain and snow. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/JP/JLB NEAR TERM...JP SHORT TERM...RH LONG TERM...JLB AVIATION...JP

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