Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 282332 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 632 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Threat of flooding continues tonight with periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Drier conditions arrive on Monday in the wake of a cold front, then persisting through most of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 540 PM Sunday... The main forecast is on track and only modified POPs slightly to better represent the current observations and trends. Also, held a bit more cloud coverage for Monday afternoon as frontal passage will be more of an anafrontal event. As of 200 PM Sunday... A warm front continues to march northward through the area this afternoon with a plethora of Areal Flood Warnings in place in response to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Local and regional gages depict a swath of 1.5 to 2 inches has already fallen along the I-64 corridor from eastern Kentucky into the western portions of West Virginia, where the bulk of flooding reports have occurred today. Many roads and highways are already taking on high water issues in the forecast area, so continue to heed caution if going out and about today. An area of renewed precipitation rides in along the boundary and further enhanced by jet dynamics aloft this evening, prompting an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain across the area. Given the overly saturated soil conditions already in place from the past 24 hours, most of the rain (and melting snowpack in the mountains) will become runoff and hike up water levels of many creeks, streams, and rivers, already noted by real-time river gages. The Flood Watch remains in effect through the course of the overnight period for this reason along with the individual Areal and River Flood Warnings already in place. To top it all off, warm air advection and breaks in cloud cover in the southern extent of the forecast area could prompt a few thunderstorms to sprout this afternoon along the frontal boundary. Latest obs in southwest Virginia and southern West Virginia show temperatures outside of the rain shield have reached the upper 60s. This trend could continue up into the Charleston metro area, establishing a local unstable environment that will have to be monitored this evening when renewed precipitation ushers in from the Tennessee Valley. A cold front will drive through the area overnight into Monday morning, which will provide one last shot, albeit short given its progressive nature, of rain for the first half of Monday. The chance for precip will quickly diminish from west to east after daybreak and finally conclude along the higher terrain, potentially as a combination of rain and snow showers, by the afternoon. Lingering low level moisture will keep stratus/stratocu over much of the area Monday before a reinforcing cold front drops down along the parent upper level low overnight Monday into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 200 PM Sunday... Upper level low pressure swings through the Upper Great Lakes late Monday afternoon and drives a reinforcing cold front through the forecast area. This will establish much drier conditions to take hold through the period and much of the work week as well. A weak southern stream system forming on the tail end of the cold front emerges out of the GoM on Wednesday and grazes the southern portions of the forecast area with a chance of rain and snow showers, pending surface temperatures at the time of its arrival. This feature appears to be fairly progressive, so showers should be east of the Appalachians by Wednesday afternoon. This will bring the return of quiet and dry weather at the break point between the short and long term period. Northwesterly flow in the wake of the secondary frontal passage will cause morning temperatures to plummet into the 20s and that appears to be the trend through the week. Given the flattened upper level pattern and no signs of strong systems encroaching the forecast area, very little change to the low level flow is expected. Therefore, there will likely be very little fluctuation in daily max/min temperatures through the extended forecast. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 200 PM Sunday... Arctic high pressure settles into the area by Thursday, maintaining dry, but colder weather through the end of the period. Subfreezing H85 temperatures suggest temperatures will stay below their climatological norm for the first full week of March. Models for the back end of the work week suggest a southern stream system attempting to reach the Central Appalachians by Thursday, but upper level longwave troughing will shunt the bulk of precipitation to our south, with perhaps only very light PoPs sneaking into our southern zones. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 630 PM Sunday... Southwesterly flow will turn northwesterly by the early afternoon associated with frontal passage. Slight moderate flow, generally around 10KT (slightly higher near the mountains), should hold steady through the period. Gusts into the upper teens (slightly stronger near EKN/BKW) will likely persist and willl likely affect all terminals through the afternoon. The rain will also be persistent with variable VIS restrictions dependent upon intensity of rainfall into the morning although on average MVFR conditions will rule. Brief periods of IFR VIS may occur with frontal passage late in the morning near CWR/BKW/EKN. Rain tapers off for most terminals by late morning with EKN/BKW being the last to endure it up until around the early afternoon. With the rain ending some cloud coverage will linger past frontal passage creating an anafrontal event leaving low clouds into the afternoon although conditions should improve to VFR by mid afternoon with dry air filtering in. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings and visibility likely waver significantly during periods of moderate to heavy rain through the overnight hours. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EST 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 CRW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H M M H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H M H H H M M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M H H H L M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H M M H H L H H H H H H AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... No IFR conditions in the foreseeable future after Monday afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch through Monday morning for WVZ005>008-013>020- 024>034-039-040-515>526. OH...Flood Watch through Monday morning for OHZ086-087. KY...Flood Watch through Monday morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Flood Watch through Monday morning for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MEK NEAR TERM...JZ/MEK SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...JZ

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