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000
FXUS61 KRLX 161843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front affects the area first half of the work week,
bringing rain chances back to parts of the area starting Monday.
High pressure and a notable warming trend start mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

Scattered rain showers that were more widespread this morning
are gradually moving eastward and dissapating across the area.
The mountains will hold onto a chance of an isolated
shower/rumble of thunder through much of the afternoon.
Elsewhere, some clearing in the cloud cover has moved in,
providing for a pleasant, but cool afternoon.

Partly could skies should allow temperatures to drop into the
mid 40s to low 50s for the lowlands, while the mountains dip
into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Do anticipate some fog
development over northeast WV and the mountains starting after
midnight.

Warm front currently situated to the southwest of the area will
gradually lift northward through the overnight, bringing with
it an increasing threat for showers near dawn Monday across the
far southern areas. Rain chances will progress northward going
through the day, but mainly staying along and south of I-64.
While a chance of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially in
southern areas, rainfall amounts will be on the light side,
generally under a quarter of an inch (perhaps a bit more across
far southern/western WV and Va). Skies will be mostly cloudy
across the area, with high temperatures slightly below normal
for mid-May.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

Primarily diurnally driven showers/thundershowers are expected
in the short term period with coverage tied to a weakening
elevated warm front. The forecast area will gradually transition
into an upper level ridge pattern by Wednesday as temperatures
swing toward above average levels.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 235 PM Sunday...

Upper level ridge attempts to take hold mid to late week, though
northern counties would be susceptible to showers/storms over
the weekend, along the northern barbel of the ridge.
Temperatures will remain above normal values through the period,
giving the area a taster of early summer.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions currently persist across all terminals, with the
main story this afternoon being isolated showers across
southern WV and VA, with some clearing currently moving into
areas north of I-64. Winds are generally light and variable.

The evening and overnight period will start off quiet, with
mostly clear skies, calm/light winds, and VFR across all
terminals. There is the potential for fog development after
midnight, mainly across northeast WV and the mountains. At this
point, have LIFR conditions developing at EKN and CKB after
midnight, with the rest of the terminals remaining VFR. The
exact timing of fog development will have to be monitored during
the overnight period.

For Monday, a warm front will begin to lift northward towards
the area, bringing back rain chances starting near dawn. Chances
for showers should mainly be confined to I-64 and south. With
this in mind, do anticipate MVFR (possibly brief IFR) conditions
developing at times tomorrow during the day and evening.
Ceilings, possibly visibility, will be the main issue, with BKW,
CRW, EKN, and HTS being the most likely to be impacted. Winds
should remain light, generally under 5 kts, perhaps a bit higher
at elevation.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this evening, medium late overnight
into Monday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development/severity at CKB/EKN could
vary. Timing/locations of restrictions tomorrow could vary
depending on location of showers.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...04