Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 220724 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 324 AM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Mid level disturbance moves today as cool high pressure builds in for late Wednesday through Friday. Warm front Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 324 AM Wednesday... On the latest surface map, a cold front was pushing across southeast Ohio. This feature and an upper level shortwave was resulting in scattered showers across the forecast area. The front is expected to continue moving southeast today with the boundary expected to be east of the region around noon. Models suggest another upper level shortwave will push east today. With this in mind, have continued chance POPS in the mountains through today. Will continue to mention isolated storms across the northern mountains as well. Outside of the mountains, expect dry cool high pressure filtering in should result in generally dry conditions by mid-afternoon. May see some precipitation in the northern mountains early tonight. However, Shortwave pushing east and high pressure taking hold will result in a dry cool overnight period with some clouds. The only fly in the ointment for the forecast tonight is that some models, including a model blend, suggest that stratus may develop across the mountains and portions of the lowlands. Have bumped up clouds in the mountains. However, not quite ready to buy off on widespread cloudy conditions. Expect below normal highs today with readings tonight generally in the 50s across the lowlands with some 40s in the mountains. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... Canadian high pressure presents one of the cooler airmasses seen in a while, and a dry short term forecast period. 850mb temperatures drop into the upper single digits before the slow recovery into the Friday time period. But valley/hollow temperatures, even some in the lowlands, will likely be in the 40s Thursday night after a couple of days with highs in te 70s/mountain 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 305 PM Tuesday... Expecting another wholesale airmass change as the 500mb heights build with the ridge over the lower Mississippi valley. The long term models hint at some ridge riding type disturbances necessitating low end POPs in the long term, but nothing overly organized is on the horizon. Going back to above normal temperatures for this period. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 215 AM Wednesday... A cold front with widely scattered showers continues to push east across the region. Most locations are reporting VFR or MVFR conditions. However, PKB and EKN are currently reporting IFR ceilings. MVFR ceilings should be common across the lowlands overnight. However, IFR conditions are expected to become widespread across the mountain counties. Conditions should slowly improve from the west after 12Z as drier air filters in from the west. However, can not rule out a shower or isolated TS east of a line from KMGW to KCKB to KCRW to KJKL during the day. By 00Z, expect any precip will be limited to the mountains. Southwest winds should become northwest this morning. Expect some higher gusts this afternoon across our northern counties as well as the mountains. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings may vary overnight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 08/22/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H L H H M H H H M M M H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M H H BKW CONSISTENCY H L H M H H H M H L H M EKN CONSISTENCY H L M H M M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L M M M M M H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M H M H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JSH

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