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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241124
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
624 AM EST Mon Feb 24 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system brings periods of rain today and tonight. Stronger
system Wednesday into Wednesday night bring additional chances
of rain, snow, and gusty winds.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM Monday...

Made some tweaks to morning/afternoon PoPs to reflect drier
short cycle guidance. Still could see mainly light rain/virga
with initial wave, especially far south, but now looking like
minimal accumulating rain through the daylight hours further
north.

As of 140 AM Monday...

Keeping temperatures on track has been a struggle this morning
with varying cloud cover and a heavy ridge/valley split in areas
that have cleared. More clouds moving in should serve to arrest
any additional significant cooling and have tried to reflect
this in the current package. Could see a initial rain/snow mix
in some of the far southern colder valleys as the column wet
bulbs down, but would not expect any accumulations.

Leading shortwave embedded in weak anticyclonic flow approaching
central Kentucky at this hour will provide a focus for an initial
round of light rain this morning, mainly over our southern half.
Given rather an initially rather dry sub-cloud layer, thinking
mostly virga through the first couple hours after sunrise for most
with our southwest VA and eastern Kentucky counties seeing the best
chances of measurable precipitation. Should see lesser chances of
measurable precipitation with the initial round of rain further
north and east as the wave washes out, but additional virga will
serve to moisten the column for the second round this evening.
Have maintained some low end PoPs on this back end of the
leading wave through the afternoon hours, but day shift may be
able to trim this back a bit with a few hours of dry conditions
possible, mainly from early afternoon into the late afternoon.

Rain chances increase to categorical area wide this evening in warm
air advection ahead of a surface low following along the lower Ohio
River Valley with rain persisting into Tuesday morning. Total
rainfall accumulations through the near term will be in the quarter
to half inch range, with some slightly higher totals possible along
the middle Ohio Valley as the surface low tracks just southwest.

Given recent dry weather and modest rainfall totals, do not
anticipate any hydrological concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 246 AM Monday...

Back edge of precip should shift from southwest to northeast
rather fast Tuesday morning as drier air around H85 spreads
northeast into the region. Pressure gradient is prog to remain
quasi-tight during the day with noticeably breezy conditions
likely at times. Enough diurnal mixing may lead to some partial
clearing in the afternoon, which will likely help boost sfc
high temps into the 60s for the lower elevations.

Southwest low level flow Tuesday night should allow for 40s to
be common for overnight lows (aside from the mountains). Rather
quiet wx conditions should also prevail as lack of deep layer
moisture will preclude much in the way of precip overnight.

Moisture rapidly flows back northward across the CWA on
Wednesday ahead of a strong deep layer trough and associated sfc
cold front. Rain should develop Wed morning across the western
CWA and quickly spread/shift east during the afternoon. How
warm temps become during the day will be dependent on timing of
FROPA, but am fairly confident temps will gradually fall during
the afternoon with the onset of cold air advection.

Blustery conditions along with a faster fall of temps should
occur Wed night as H85 front pushes east followed by the parent
mid level trough axis. Post frontal rain showers/bands will mix
with and eventually switch over to snow showers overnight.
Guidance differs regarding how fast low/mid level moisture pulls
out of the area...and as such precip coverage overnight may
ultimately be greater/lesser than what is currently forecast.
Minor accumulations of snow should occur overnight for many of
the lower elevations of West Virginia (possibly for SE OH too if
moisture sticks around long enough). A few inches will be
possible for area/regional mountains.

Thursday looks to be rather cold as cold air advection continues
with highs for many areas only briefing reaching/exceeding the
freezing mark. A few snow showers may occur during the day, but
again it`s dependent on how long moisture does/does not stay
around. Went with some partial clearing occurring on Thursday,
especially if enough mixing can occur.

Wind chill values will feel rather frigid Wed night and Thursday
with lower elevations experiencing a prolonged period of
readings in the teens/20s with values quickly lowering the
higher in elevation one goes. The highest mountain ridges could
experience wind chill values of less than zero late Wed night
and Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

A combination of high pressure building in at the surface and the
continued eastward progression of an upper level trough should
result in a mostly dry weekend; however, models do indicate a
disturbance could bring a brief chance of precipitation early on in
the weekend. Strong wind gusts are possible especially toward the
beginning of the long term period.

Transport of cold air into the area will likely keep temperatures
below normal throughout the weekend. Highs should range from 30s to
low 40s in the lowlands and 20s to 30s in the mountains. Low
temperatures are expected to be in the teens and 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 AM Monday...

VFR ceilings this morning give way to MVFR ceilings this afternoon
as virga/light rain moving through the region progressively moistens
the column. Minimal rain accumulations/visibility restrictions are
expected through the daylight hours given rather dry low levels
still in place.

The main body of precipitation moves into the region this evening
and continues through the end of this set of TAFs with ceilings
decreasing to near IFR by 06Z.

Winds generally light, 5 to 9KTs from the south.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of progressively worsening ceilings
through the afternoon hours may vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/24/20
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
Lingering IFR ceilings possible Tuesday morning. IFR possible
Wednesday and Thursday in rain and snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RH/JP/JLB
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...RH
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JP