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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 232302
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
702 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry cold front pushing through tonight. High pressure then
dominates through mid week. Low pressure brings wet weather
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Other than the breezy conditions and lower level moisture/cloud
deck dropping in from the north behind another dry cold front,
no significant weather in the forecast for the near term. After
a mild fall day, temperatures drop into the 30s lowlands/20s
mountains tonight. High pressure influences remain strong
through the day Wednesday, but temperature recovery will not be
as good during the day, and below normal values area wide
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 PM Tuesday...

Canadian high pressure settles in from the north Wednesday night,
bringing clear, calm conditions, and yet another frosty/freezing
morning come dawn Thursday.

The high retreats Thursday and Thursday night, as a northern stream
trough along the east coast lifts out, and a southern stream system
approaches from the southwest. This will bring increasing high and
then mid cloud during this time.

Models are trending a bit faster with the southern stream system,
which is progged to have multiple embedded short waves as it
migrates from the intermountain west into the eastern U.S., picking
up the remnants of Willa as it does. The result at the surface is a
Miller-B system, the eastern surface low center becoming the main
center as it reaches the southeast coast Friday afternoon. The
coastal center then tracks up the middle Atlantic seaboard Friday
night.

While the heaviest of the rain is modeled close to the coast with
the main center /the influence of the moisture of Willa perhaps even
farther east/, rain should overspread the area from the south
beginning first thing Friday morning, if not before dawn, with wet
weather likely for the entire area before the day is out.
Temperatures nay bottom out close to freezing in the northern
mountain valleys Thursday night. Have lows there just above
freezing, but if temperatures are at or below freezing when the
rain, given warmer air aloft, arrives, it could freeze on colder
surfaces.

The heaviest of the rain will be in and along the east slopes
of the mountains, where an inch to an inch and a half are
possible Friday through Friday night. This should be
hydrologically manageable, even if an inch occurs within a six
hour period. Temperatures in the northern mountains may bottom
out close to freezing, in the mid 30s, again Friday night, but
it will still be warm aloft.

After the cold start Thursday, highs remain below normal, but lows
get back to normal as the system favors smaller temperature ranges
that average only a little below normal beneath the southern
stream. Again, will have to watch mountain valley temperatures
closely as the rain arrives late overnight Thursday night /
early Friday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Tuesday...

The heaviest of the rain moves out Saturday, as the coastal surface
center moves off to the northeast, and the western center slowly
fills over the middle Ohio Valley. However, the weather is likely to
remain overcast and damp over the weekend, as a northern stream
system drops in to reinforce the southern stream trough, carving out
a deeper eastern U.S. trough by Monday. Colder air comes in Sunday
night, with upslope snow showers likely in the mountains by Monday
in northwest flow.

The system starts to move east on Tuesday, allowing high pressure,
with drier air, to build in from the southwest.

Temperatures remain below normal on highs but near normal on lows in
the absence of radiative cooling and an air mass still a polar-
Pacific blend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 700 PM Tuesday...

VFR conditions can be expected this evening. Some MVFR clouds
may develop in northeastern WV on the western side of the
mountains later tonight. These clouds should lift into a VFR
cumulus deck on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cloud heights late tonight could be higher
or lower than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in rain Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...26/TRM
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...RPY