Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 300707 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 307 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023 .SYNOPSIS...
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Heat builds through the week with isolated/scattered afternoon convection, mainly in the higher terrain.
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As of 255 AM Tuesday... As the high clouds have largely cleared from the area, low stratus and fog are taking hold in the southern part of WV and SW VA. These are the areas that received the most rain over the past two days, and low-level moisture is abundant. A combination of sunshine and increasing E-SE`ly downsloping breezes should help to scour out most of the low stratus and fog by mid- morning. We can expect cumulus and stratocumulus to then form across much of the area at the top of the boundary layer and slowly rise through the day as the PBL deepens with daytime heating. Guidance has further cut back on rain or t-storm chances this afternoon and evening, but we could still see isolated showers and storms across the southern half of the CWA. The best chances will remain in the higher terrain along the southeastern border of the CWA, mainly from around Snowshoe down to our SW VA counties. The warm-up that models have been telegraphing for quite some time will start in earnest today, with lower elevation highs ranging from the mid-80s in SE Ohio to the upper 70s in the southern coalfields. Mountain highs will range from low to mid-70s at around 2500ft to only the low to mid-60s on the highest peaks. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s in the northeastern mountains to the upper 50s in the Mid-Ohio Valley and SE Ohio. We can`t rule out some fog tonight in some of the more sheltered valleys in the northeastern part of the CWA which may decouple from the E-SE`ly breezes, but most of the area should have light breezes persist and help hold fog at bay.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 219 AM Tuesday... Overall drier weather Wednesday, but there will still be the possibility of isolated showers and storms mainly during the afternoon/evening hours, as weakened low continues to linger just off the coast, providing moisture and occasional impulses moving through the area. This pattern will continue through Thursday, but by Friday, high pressure retrograding across the north should help to keep much of the area dry, and hot, with high temperatures possibly reaching into the 90s across much of the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 AM Tuesday... Chances for precipitation look to increase across the area on Saturday as an upper trough and surface cold front sags south along the northeast coast of the U.S., with an unsettled pattern looking possible for the remainder of the extended. However, there still remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and at this point, bulk of convective activity looks to be confined to the east. Regardless, the unsettled pattern will at least provide a few degrees of relief in the hot weather headed into next week. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 150 AM Tuesday... After a brief reprieve for most sites across the southern part of the area, areas of low stratus and dense valley fog are forming as the higher-level clouds clear out. BKW and CRW will likely see IFR conditions more often than not through 12z, with conditions then improving after that. EKN and HTS will likely see some light fog and EKN could also see lower ceilings, but not expecting persistent IFR conditions at those terminals. As E-SE`ly downsloping winds pick up during the day tomorrow, any fog or low stratus should scour out, with a mid-level cumulus or stratocu deck likely to form at the top of the boundary layer. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through 15z, then High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog/low stratus at EKN/CRW/BKW/HTS may vary from the forecast, and may take longer to dissipate or scour out in some spots tomorrow morning. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 05/30/23 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H L M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L M M M L L H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H L H L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...FK/SL NEAR TERM...FK SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...FK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.