Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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096 FXUS61 KRLX 301036 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 636 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry today through Saturday courtesy of high pressure, then disturbances bring showers and storms late Saturday night into next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 635 AM Thursday... Have made a few changes to temperatures and dewpoints based on current observations. Otherwise, the near term forecast is generally on track this morning. As of 215 AM Thursday... Isolated showers, mainly lingering over the northeast mountains, should fade early this morning. Valley fog has started to develop in the lowlands and should expend in coverage before dawn, while stratus persists along the mountains. Both fog and stratus are then expected to erode after sunrise. While an upper trough remains stationed overhead today, dry air will be introduced to the lower levels as high pressure expands into the Middle Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. The passage of another shortwave could bring a few clouds during the latter half of the day, though high pressure is expected to maintain control at the surface and supply dry, tranquil conditions into the night. Temperatures should remain on the cooler side of normal, with daytime highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s in the mountains. Lows for tonight are expected to turn chilly and are likely to range from low to mid 40s in the lowlands to mid 30s to low 40s along the mountains. Patchy frost could even form across portions of the northeast mountains early Friday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 221 AM Thursday... Dry and quiet conditions expected Friday and Saturday, courtesy of a broad surface high pressure extending from the southern Great Lakes, south into the OH Valley and West Virginia. Temperatures will feel 5 degrees cooler than normal on Friday and Friday night under weak northerly flow. However, boundary layer flow veers from the southwest by Saturday morning, ahead of an approaching upper level trough. This will provide a warming trend into the weekend. A clean transient upper level ridge will support stable conditions Saturday. Therefore, expect a warm up Saturday afternoon under sunny skies with highs reaching the mid 80s across the lowlands, ranging into the upper 60s higher elevations. Boundary layer southwest flow increases Saturday night and Sunday, bringing descent moist and warm advection to the area, while the upper ridge moves east, allowing a sharp trough to cross the area during the same time. The upper level support and available moisture could allow for chances of showers Saturday night, increasing in coverage and intensity Sunday. Associated upper level forcing will combine with PWATs increasing to 1.5 inches to sustain showers and few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Some guidance suggests a shortwave within the upper trough will push a cold front Sunday, pushing convection east of the mountains by Sunday night. However, other guidance points at the stalling cold front north of the area by Monday. Accepted NBM temperatures with a warming trend, Sunday to Monday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 221 AM Thursday... After Sunday, models show different solutions at the surface and at the upper levels, some stalling the front north of the area, while others push a cold front east. Some bring upper level shortwave passing by. Due to uncertainty of model solutions, will maintain chance PoPs during the afternoon and evening Monday through the rest of the period. Accepted NBM temperatures with a warming trend, reaching the mid to upper 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 635 AM Thursday... Stratus and valley fog will erode this morning, allowing VFR conditions to return across the area. High pressure building in from the north will then maintain VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Around 5-12kt northwesterly winds are expected during the day, with occasional gusts into the 15-20kt range possible along the mountains this afternoon. Tonight, calm to light winds and clear skies could facilitate the development of river valley fog. While VFR should persist outside of fog, IFR or worse conditions will be possible wherever fog does develop. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement this morning may vary from the forecast. Extent and intensity of fog tonight may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE THU 05/30/24 UTC 1HRLY 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 EDT 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY L M M M H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M M M L H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H L L M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog early Friday morning.
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