National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171511
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1011 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface low pressure center moves northeast across the Ohio
River this afternoon. Multiple systems affecting the area mid to
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1010 AM Sunday...

Extended the Advisory over the tri state area as temperatures
were slow to come above freezing, but precip is mainly trace
event type quantities. POPs increased over the far southern
zones.

As of 457 AM Sunday...

Sent a quick update to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for brief
periods of freezing rain across northeast KY, portions of
southeast OH, and southwest portions of WV through 9 AM. This
advisory affects but not limited to Interstate 64. Rest of
forecast remains on track.

As of 230 AM Sunday...

A surface low pressure center will track northeast along the
Ohio River this afternoon. Associated pcpn will spread from the
southwest starting around 7 AM across northeast KY into the
Tri-state area of WV, OH, and KY. With surface temperatures
few degrees below freezing, areas of drizzle could become
freezing drizzle from 7 to 10 AM Sunday across the lowlands
with very little impacts. Believe duration and intensity will be
negligible to hoist an advisory. Will treat the onset of this
event with statements rather than advisory. Put more weight into
the RAP and HRRR models on the timing of pcpn affecting the
area.

Models suggest warm air advection under southwest wind
increasing to 40 knots by 12Z. Will keep most pcpn as rain. The
exception will be along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians
where surface subfreezing temperatures will produce freezing
rain through the afternoon hours. Therefore, a winter weather
advisory remains in effect for the eastern slopes of Raleigh,
north into Randolph and Pocahontas at least through 18Z Sunday.

Expect afternoon temperatures similar to yesterdays, but with
more clouds. Lows tonight will be not as cold as last night, but
it will be in a cooling trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Sunday...

Low pressure will be pulling off to the northeast at the start
of the period. Light precipitation will still be ongoing, but
for the most part, expecting a transition to -dz or -fzdz most
areas. Depending on this, winter weather headlines may need to
be extended in time by a few hours from what is currently
posted. Will allow day shift to monitor.

Brief break in the precipitation for much of Monday night and
Tuesday, but precipitation will move back into the area by
Tuesday evening, as an upper shortwave and surface low ejects
out of the Plains into the Great Lakes region. Strong southerly
flow, will help transport high amounts of moisture from the Gulf
region into the area. Models still indicating overrunning
Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with a messy/wintry mix
taking hold across most of the CWA, with mainly southwest
Virginia the only area expected to not receive much of a wintry
mix at this point. At least light snowfall accumulations are
expected across the northern half of the CWA with light to
possibly moderate accumulations possible across the higher
terrain. Sleet and ice accumulations are also looking likely,
outside of southern zones. Will highlight this in HWO.

Wintry mix will transition over to rain by Wednesday afternoon,
with heavy rain at times. Water is going to be a concern this
period and in the long term. At this point, have a general 1.7
to over 2 inches of rain across southern and eastern zones, with
lessor amounts across the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 310 AM Sunday...

Yet another system with high moisture transport will affect the
region Thursday and Friday, with the potential for yet another
wet system after the long term period. Any lingering hydro
issues will continue during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 648 AM Sunday...

A surface low pressure system will move across the forecast area
this afternoon. Increasing H850 flow will bring warm and moisture
advection to produce most pcpn in the form of rain.

MVFR ceilings across the southern half of the area will spread
north and east through this evening. Model consensus suggest two
axis of pcpn, one focus over the extreme southern WV to include
BKW, and another across portions of southeast OH closer to PKB.
Periods of IFR can not be ruled out under moderate rain and low
ceilings by mid day Sunday at most terminals. Periods of
freezing rain are anticipated along the eastern slopes of the
Appalachians to include BKW from 12 to 18Z Sunday.

As the low pressure center moves northeast over PA, strong cold
air advection will wrap around the low and affect the entire
region with sub freezing temperatures. Any lingering moisture
will turn into light snow or flurries spreading from west to
east for brief periods of IFR after 06Z Monday. Periods IFR
under snow will likely occur over our northeast mountains nearby
EKN through Monday morning.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of cold front and IFR ceilings for
PKB and HTS may vary this evening.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    L    L    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for
     WVZ522>524-526.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ005-006-013-014.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ516-518-520.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     OHZ087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...26/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ