Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 161843 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 243 PM EDT Sun May 16 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front affects the area first half of the work week, bringing rain chances back to parts of the area starting Monday. High pressure and a notable warming trend start mid-week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday... Scattered rain showers that were more widespread this morning are gradually moving eastward and dissapating across the area. The mountains will hold onto a chance of an isolated shower/rumble of thunder through much of the afternoon. Elsewhere, some clearing in the cloud cover has moved in, providing for a pleasant, but cool afternoon. Partly could skies should allow temperatures to drop into the mid 40s to low 50s for the lowlands, while the mountains dip into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Do anticipate some fog development over northeast WV and the mountains starting after midnight. Warm front currently situated to the southwest of the area will gradually lift northward through the overnight, bringing with it an increasing threat for showers near dawn Monday across the far southern areas. Rain chances will progress northward going through the day, but mainly staying along and south of I-64. While a chance of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially in southern areas, rainfall amounts will be on the light side, generally under a quarter of an inch (perhaps a bit more across far southern/western WV and Va). Skies will be mostly cloudy across the area, with high temperatures slightly below normal for mid-May. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 235 PM Sunday... Primarily diurnally driven showers/thundershowers are expected in the short term period with coverage tied to a weakening elevated warm front. The forecast area will gradually transition into an upper level ridge pattern by Wednesday as temperatures swing toward above average levels. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 235 PM Sunday... Upper level ridge attempts to take hold mid to late week, though northern counties would be susceptible to showers/storms over the weekend, along the northern barbel of the ridge. Temperatures will remain above normal values through the period, giving the area a taster of early summer. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 215 PM Sunday... VFR conditions currently persist across all terminals, with the main story this afternoon being isolated showers across southern WV and VA, with some clearing currently moving into areas north of I-64. Winds are generally light and variable. The evening and overnight period will start off quiet, with mostly clear skies, calm/light winds, and VFR across all terminals. There is the potential for fog development after midnight, mainly across northeast WV and the mountains. At this point, have LIFR conditions developing at EKN and CKB after midnight, with the rest of the terminals remaining VFR. The exact timing of fog development will have to be monitored during the overnight period. For Monday, a warm front will begin to lift northward towards the area, bringing back rain chances starting near dawn. Chances for showers should mainly be confined to I-64 and south. With this in mind, do anticipate MVFR (possibly brief IFR) conditions developing at times tomorrow during the day and evening. Ceilings, possibly visibility, will be the main issue, with BKW, CRW, EKN, and HTS being the most likely to be impacted. Winds should remain light, generally under 5 kts, perhaps a bit higher at elevation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High this evening, medium late overnight into Monday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog development/severity at CKB/EKN could vary. Timing/locations of restrictions tomorrow could vary depending on location of showers. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Monday afternoon. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/04 NEAR TERM...04 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...04 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.