Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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640 FXUS61 KRLX 100809 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 309 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today through Wednesday. Shortwave passes Wednesday night. Deep cyclone system toward the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Monday... A few lingering snow showers across SE West Virginia and SW Virginia through about dawn. Not much in the way of accumulation with these, but localized amounts of an additional 0.5" is possible. This area was also the hardest hit from yesterday`s snow storm, so any additional snow combined with the cold temperatures will make for a challenging commute for the start of the new work week. Conditions will improve later this morning and through this afternoon, with clouds decreasing. Tonight will be quite cold with mostly clear skies and light winds. Areas with fresh snow pack will radiate very efficiently overnight and lows will likely dip into the low teens and maybe as low as 10 degrees. Have opted to several degrees below MOS guidance in these areas. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 230 AM Monday... A broad surface high pressure ridge extends from eastern Texas, northeast across Tennessee and Kentucky, into West Virginia by 12Z Tuesday. This high pressure will build over the area through Thursday. The combination of clear skies and weak boundary layer winds will allow for strong radiational cooling for very cold and dry conditions Tuesday morning. Morning temperatures will be around 20 degrees lowlands, ranging into the mid to upper TEENS eastern mountains. Dry weather conditions will continue on Wednesday, with some low to mid level clouds affecting the northern half of our forecast area Tuesday night. With a very cold air in place, diurnal heating will provide above freezing temperatures across the lowlands, ranging to the mid 30s for elevations higher than 2000 feet, and below freezing for elevations higher than 3000 feet. Expect a slow warming trend from Tuesday through Thursday, as H850 winds become southwest Wednesday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The NAM/GFS/ECMWF show similar solutions through the period. Therefore, confidence runs HIGH forecasting the track of the next low pressure system over the OH Valley, northeast into the Great Lakes region by Wednesday night. Models are in agreement with light liquid precipitation reaching portions of southeast OH early Wednesday night. Adjusted PoPs Wednesday night to keep slight chance across the western half of the forecast area, dissipating by midday Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 AM Monday... An upper level shortwave, exiting east of the Rockies, will dig south across the central plains, developing into a deep, vertically stack cut-off low pressure system Thursday. The GFS indicate the system will undergo rapid drop in atmospheric pressure (exceeding 24 millibars in a short period of time) as it move over the TX and OK border by Wednesday night. By early Friday, the 00Z GFS becomes in better agreement with its counterpart ECMWF, although a bit faster, with tracking this cyclone across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Its broad circulation could establish deep southwest flow, increasing moisture and temperatures by the end of the week. The extratropical cyclone should continue its motion toward the east before taking a northeast track across the Carolinas by Saturday. Coded wintry mixed precipitation reaching southeast OHio and spreading northeast across WV Thursday night through late Saturday. There could be a lull in precipitation later on Saturday before more widespread precipitation overruns the region. Temperature profiles suggest precipitation type will mainly be rain across the lowlands and wintry mix or snow over the northeast mountains through the end of the period. Pcpn should begin to move out east of the Appalachians by Monday next week. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1245 AM Monday... High pressure is building into the region and bringing VFR conditions, however, BKW will still have lingering low level moisture before finally improving later this morning. After 12Z Monday, all sites should be VFR through the remainder of the forecast. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium early on at BKW, otherwise high. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions with FZFG and low ceilings at BKW will vary until at least 10Z - 12Z. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 12/10/18 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY L L L H L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H L H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in rain on Friday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...MPK SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...ARJ AVIATION...MPK

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