National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 220724
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
324 AM EDT Wed Aug 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid level disturbance moves today as cool high pressure
builds in for late Wednesday through Friday. Warm front
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 324 AM Wednesday...

On the latest surface map, a cold front was pushing across
southeast Ohio. This feature and an upper level shortwave was
resulting in scattered showers across the forecast area.

The front is expected to continue moving southeast today with
the boundary expected to be east of the region around noon.
Models suggest another upper level shortwave will push east
today.

With this in mind, have continued chance POPS in the mountains
through today. Will continue to mention isolated storms across
the northern mountains as well. Outside of the mountains, expect
dry cool high pressure filtering in should result in generally dry
conditions by mid-afternoon.

May see some precipitation in the northern mountains early
tonight. However, Shortwave pushing east and high pressure
taking hold will result in a dry cool overnight period with some
clouds.

The only fly in the ointment for the forecast tonight is that
some models, including a model blend, suggest that stratus may
develop across the mountains and portions of the lowlands. Have
bumped up clouds in the mountains. However, not quite ready to
buy off on widespread cloudy conditions.

Expect below normal highs today with readings tonight generally
in the 50s across the lowlands with some 40s in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...

Canadian high pressure presents one of the cooler airmasses seen
in a while, and a dry short term forecast period. 850mb
temperatures drop into the upper single digits before the slow
recovery into the Friday time period. But valley/hollow
temperatures, even some in the lowlands, will likely be in the
40s Thursday night after a couple of days with highs in te
70s/mountain 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 PM Tuesday...

Expecting another wholesale airmass change as the 500mb heights
build with the ridge over the lower Mississippi valley. The long
term models hint at some ridge riding type disturbances
necessitating low end POPs in the long term, but nothing overly
organized is on the horizon. Going back to above normal
temperatures for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Wednesday...

A cold front with widely scattered showers continues to push
east across the region. Most locations are reporting VFR or MVFR
conditions. However, PKB and EKN are currently reporting IFR
ceilings.

MVFR ceilings should be common across the lowlands overnight.
However, IFR conditions are expected to become widespread
across the mountain counties.

Conditions should slowly improve from the west after 12Z as
drier air filters in from the west. However, can not rule out a
shower or isolated TS east of a line from KMGW to KCKB to KCRW
to KJKL during the day.

By 00Z, expect any precip will be limited to the mountains.

Southwest winds should become northwest this morning. Expect
some higher gusts this afternoon across our northern counties as
well as the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings may vary overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/22/18
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    L    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH