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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 300707
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
307 AM EDT Tue May 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Heat builds through the week with isolated/scattered afternoon
convection, mainly in the higher terrain.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 AM Tuesday...

As the high clouds have largely cleared from the area, low
stratus and fog are taking hold in the southern part of WV and
SW VA. These are the areas that received the most rain over the
past two days, and low-level moisture is abundant. A combination
of sunshine and increasing E-SE`ly downsloping breezes should
help to scour out most of the low stratus and fog by mid-
morning. We can expect cumulus and stratocumulus to then form
across much of the area at the top of the boundary layer and
slowly rise through the day as the PBL deepens with daytime
heating. Guidance has further cut back on rain or t-storm
chances this afternoon and evening, but we could still see
isolated showers and storms across the southern half of the CWA.
The best chances will remain in the higher terrain along the
southeastern border of the CWA, mainly from around Snowshoe down
to our SW VA counties.

The warm-up that models have been telegraphing for quite some
time will start in earnest today, with lower elevation highs
ranging from the mid-80s in SE Ohio to the upper 70s in the
southern coalfields. Mountain highs will range from low to
mid-70s at around 2500ft to only the low to mid-60s on the
highest peaks. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s in the
northeastern mountains to the upper 50s in the Mid-Ohio Valley
and SE Ohio. We can`t rule out some fog tonight in some of the
more sheltered valleys in the northeastern part of the CWA which
may decouple from the E-SE`ly breezes, but most of the area
should have light breezes persist and help hold fog at bay.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 219 AM Tuesday...

Overall drier weather Wednesday, but there will still be the
possibility of isolated showers and storms mainly during the
afternoon/evening hours, as weakened low continues to linger just
off the coast, providing moisture and occasional impulses moving
through the area. This pattern will continue through Thursday, but
by Friday, high pressure retrograding across the north should help
to keep much of the area dry, and hot, with high temperatures
possibly reaching into the 90s across much of the lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 220 AM Tuesday...

Chances for precipitation look to increase across the area on
Saturday as an upper trough and surface cold front sags south along
the northeast coast of the U.S., with an unsettled pattern looking
possible for the remainder of the extended. However, there still
remains quite a bit of uncertainty, and at this point, bulk of
convective activity looks to be confined to the east. Regardless,
the unsettled pattern will at least provide a few degrees of relief
in the hot weather headed into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 150 AM Tuesday...

After a brief reprieve for most sites across the southern part
of the area, areas of low stratus and dense valley fog are
forming as the higher-level clouds clear out. BKW and CRW will
likely see IFR conditions more often than not through 12z, with
conditions then improving after that. EKN and HTS will likely
see some light fog and EKN could also see lower ceilings, but
not expecting persistent IFR conditions at those terminals. As
E-SE`ly downsloping winds pick up during the day tomorrow, any
fog or low stratus should scour out, with a mid-level cumulus or
stratocu deck likely to form at the top of the boundary layer.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through 15z, then High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog/low stratus at EKN/CRW/BKW/HTS may
vary from the forecast, and may take longer to dissipate or
scour out in some spots tomorrow morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 05/30/23
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK