Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 150715 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 315 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today. Cold front late tonight/Wednesday. High pressure for the end of the work week and into the weekend. Another system late in weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 311 AM Tuesday... Clear skies and calm winds early this morning are leading to solid radiational cooling conditions across the region. Latest GOES-16 Night Fog satellite imagery does suggest that these conditions are leading to river valley fog formation across parts of the area and will continue to monitor trends through the remainder of the morning. Any fog that does develop this morning will burn off fairly quickly after sunrise and will set the stage for a mainly quiet day ahead as surface high pressure in the Mid-Atlantic region remains in control. However, latest water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough currently in the northern Plains and this feature is expected to move towards the Great Lakes by this evening. Warm air advection ahead of this feature will increase through the day as southwest flow strengthens, sending temperatures into the mid/upper 70s this afternoon. By this evening, cloud cover will increase from west to east as the upper shortwave trough and associated cold front move into the Ohio Valley. Precipitation will begin approaching far western portions of the CWA late this evening and into the overnight hours with height falls aloft and an increase in moisture aided by a modest low level jet around 30-35 kts. Models suggest that there may be just enough elevated instability to support a rumble of thunder or two as the main precipitation shield approaches late evening and overnight. Greatest chance of any thunder is expected to be for areas along and west of the Ohio River, but instability values are rather low so this appears to be a pretty small chance pretty much anywhere. With PWATs expected to increase to 1.20-1.30 inches along and ahead of the frontal boundary combined with the sufficient upper level support, this system will bring a good opportunity for measurable precipitation across the region. In addition, temperatures this evening will generally follow a non-diurnal trend as values remain very mild for the first part of the night and then begin falling immediately behind the frontal boundary as strong cold air advection increases. The frontal boundary will continue to move across the remainder of the region into the short term period with precipitation continuing to move further east into Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... A strong cold front will push through the area late Tuesday night/Wednesday. Models are in fairly good agreement with the timing of this system. Models showing 850 mb temperatures cold enough for upslope clouds and possibly some showers or drizzle into Thursday. Temperatures at the top of the low level moisture layer are marginal for the support of ice crystals. Might see some flakes at times in the higher elevations, but not expecting any significant accumulation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 AM Tuesday... A high pressure system will build in Thursday night, remaining for Friday into the beginning of the weekend. In mountain valleys where winds decouple Thursday night and Friday night, could see some frost. The next system arrives toward the end of the weekend. Models vary considerably with this system, so confidence is low. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 136 AM Tuesday... Mainly VFR conditions are in place early this morning with surface high pressure moving over the area. The one immediate concern the rest of this morning through around 12-13Z Tuesday will be the potential for river valley fog across parts of the area. Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the region and calm winds are also being reported. These factors could allow the fog to develop and possibly bring IFR/LIFR conditions to terminals impacted. It appears the terminals with the greatest chance for flight restrictions from the fog will be at EKN, CRW, and PKB. Any river valley fog that does develop should quickly burn off around 13Z Tuesday morning and VFR conditions will return to the entire region with high pressure remaining in control. High and mid level clouds will gradually increase west to east late in the TAF period ahead of a cold front that will move across the Ohio Valley. Some MVFR cigs may get close to western terminals by the end of the TAF period as the cold front approaches front approaches from the west, but primarily expecting continued VFR conditions through 06Z Wednesday and deteriorating conditions beyond that for the next TAF cycle. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and density fog tonight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 10/15/19 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions are possible in visibility and low stratus Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front and scattered showers move across the area. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ NEAR TERM...RG SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...RG

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