Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 262336 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 736 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Multiple rounds of showers and storms expected this afternoon through the overnight ahead of a cold front. Drier, and initially cooler to start the new work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 615 PM Sunday... Looking at current radar not much in the way of activity as of now. Really only that small line segment that has moved through the Charleston area and headed toward the higher terrain that is still active. There area a few storms to the north near Clarksburg, but are quickly dissipating. Overall, adjusted POPs to meet current observations and trends and sped up the front just a little as it already nears our Ohio counties. Also, raised winds slightly to account for frontal passage. Chances of thunderstorms will exist until the front exits the mountains by roughly late morning. The rest of the forecast is on track. As of 120 PM Sunday... Clouds associated with convective debris, as well as lingering showers/storms associated with a mid-level continue to conspire to keep insolation fairly muted, with the exception of E KY and SE OH. Subsidence associated with a mid-level wave that passed this morning responsible for locally heavy showers and thunderstorms will begin to shift off the east as a second leading shortwave approaches this afternoon. This should serve as a focus for the initial line of afternoon convection, developing across SE OH and E KY by 2-3PM. Significant (1500-2500J/kg MLCAPE) will be limited to a fairly narrow corridor restricted by the aforementioned cloudiness, generally associated with weak (10-20KT) deep layer shear, so not expecting much in the way of storm organization beyond enough updraft/downdraft separation to sustain as a weak multicellular cluster. The main threats with this activity will be locally heavy to very heavy rainfall with slow moving convective cores that could quickly surpass flash flood guidance over a limited area, along with locally gusty winds associated with modest cold pool amalgamation or convective core drops. As this area of convection slowly shifts off to the southeast late this afternoon into this evening it will be moving into an increasingly unfavorable environment that has already been turned over this morning and has struggled to warm up. As a result, would expect these storms to weaken quickly as they approach a line from Charleston to Clintwood. An additional area of showers and thunderstorms is expected overnight to night as a cold front works its way through the region. While shear will be a bit stronger with this round of storms, approaching 30KTs, the elevated nature of the storms and limited instability should yield minimal threats of strong or severe storms. With storm motions that will roughly parallel the front, some training will be possible with this elevated activity, and if this occurs over locations that already received a significant amount of rain today, additional localized flash flooding is possible. The front largely clears the region to the south and east by daybreak Monday with drier and cooler air advecting into the region. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 120 PM Sunday... Surface high pressure and very dry air aloft yields quiet conditions Monday night through Wednesday night as dew point values fall into the mid 40s. Daytime highs Tuesday will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s, increasing to mid 80s on Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 120 PM Sunday... Surface high pressure begins to weaken Wednesday night into Thursday with increasing southwesterly flow beginning to advect the Gulf moisture plume that had been lingering just south of the region slowly back into the region. Coincident with this, a slow moving cold front associated with an area of low pressure transiting Hudson Bay looks to approach, and then stall across the region heading into Friday and lingering into the weekend. This slow moving boundary, coupled with diurnal heating will provide a focus for daily showers and thunderstorms. In an environment characterized by precipitable water values 1.5 to 2", marginal mid-level lapse rates yielding deep and skinny conditional instability profiles, and storm motions that would parallel the slow moving boundary yielding at least some potential for training, think hydro issues will be the primary concern. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 735 PM Sunday... Currently, things have quieted down for terminals after this 2nd wave has come to an end. The final wave is yet to happen which will be initiated along the cold front to our west as it approaches, but it should not be as bad as the previous wave. As this feature passes through the western terminals may see some shower/storm activity first, then clear out by 7Z. Surface flow changes direction to out of the northwest upon frontal passage. With cloud coverage, timing of frontal passage and elevated winds at the surface, not much in the way of fog development for overnight into tomorrow morning even with any breaks in cloud coverage. Some restrictions will be possible near the eastern terminals under showers/storms until the front exits, which may affect sites with MVFR VIS/CIGs temporarily. The front exits around late morning and leaves behind northwesterly flow with little to no clouds in the sky which will promote area-wide VFR by 13Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Any direct hit from a shower/storm could promote lower VIS than what is stated in the TAFs. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M L M M H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H L AFTER 00Z TUESDAY... IFR river valley fog expected Tuesday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JP NEAR TERM...JP/JZ SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...JP AVIATION...JZ

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