Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 171511 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 1011 AM EST Sun Feb 17 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Surface low pressure center moves northeast across the Ohio River this afternoon. Multiple systems affecting the area mid to late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1010 AM Sunday... Extended the Advisory over the tri state area as temperatures were slow to come above freezing, but precip is mainly trace event type quantities. POPs increased over the far southern zones. As of 457 AM Sunday... Sent a quick update to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for brief periods of freezing rain across northeast KY, portions of southeast OH, and southwest portions of WV through 9 AM. This advisory affects but not limited to Interstate 64. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 230 AM Sunday... A surface low pressure center will track northeast along the Ohio River this afternoon. Associated pcpn will spread from the southwest starting around 7 AM across northeast KY into the Tri-state area of WV, OH, and KY. With surface temperatures few degrees below freezing, areas of drizzle could become freezing drizzle from 7 to 10 AM Sunday across the lowlands with very little impacts. Believe duration and intensity will be negligible to hoist an advisory. Will treat the onset of this event with statements rather than advisory. Put more weight into the RAP and HRRR models on the timing of pcpn affecting the area. Models suggest warm air advection under southwest wind increasing to 40 knots by 12Z. Will keep most pcpn as rain. The exception will be along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians where surface subfreezing temperatures will produce freezing rain through the afternoon hours. Therefore, a winter weather advisory remains in effect for the eastern slopes of Raleigh, north into Randolph and Pocahontas at least through 18Z Sunday. Expect afternoon temperatures similar to yesterdays, but with more clouds. Lows tonight will be not as cold as last night, but it will be in a cooling trend. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday... Low pressure will be pulling off to the northeast at the start of the period. Light precipitation will still be ongoing, but for the most part, expecting a transition to -dz or -fzdz most areas. Depending on this, winter weather headlines may need to be extended in time by a few hours from what is currently posted. Will allow day shift to monitor. Brief break in the precipitation for much of Monday night and Tuesday, but precipitation will move back into the area by Tuesday evening, as an upper shortwave and surface low ejects out of the Plains into the Great Lakes region. Strong southerly flow, will help transport high amounts of moisture from the Gulf region into the area. Models still indicating overrunning Tuesday night into early Wednesday, with a messy/wintry mix taking hold across most of the CWA, with mainly southwest Virginia the only area expected to not receive much of a wintry mix at this point. At least light snowfall accumulations are expected across the northern half of the CWA with light to possibly moderate accumulations possible across the higher terrain. Sleet and ice accumulations are also looking likely, outside of southern zones. Will highlight this in HWO. Wintry mix will transition over to rain by Wednesday afternoon, with heavy rain at times. Water is going to be a concern this period and in the long term. At this point, have a general 1.7 to over 2 inches of rain across southern and eastern zones, with lessor amounts across the north. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 AM Sunday... Yet another system with high moisture transport will affect the region Thursday and Friday, with the potential for yet another wet system after the long term period. Any lingering hydro issues will continue during this period. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 648 AM Sunday... A surface low pressure system will move across the forecast area this afternoon. Increasing H850 flow will bring warm and moisture advection to produce most pcpn in the form of rain. MVFR ceilings across the southern half of the area will spread north and east through this evening. Model consensus suggest two axis of pcpn, one focus over the extreme southern WV to include BKW, and another across portions of southeast OH closer to PKB. Periods of IFR can not be ruled out under moderate rain and low ceilings by mid day Sunday at most terminals. Periods of freezing rain are anticipated along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians to include BKW from 12 to 18Z Sunday. As the low pressure center moves northeast over PA, strong cold air advection will wrap around the low and affect the entire region with sub freezing temperatures. Any lingering moisture will turn into light snow or flurries spreading from west to east for brief periods of IFR after 06Z Monday. Periods IFR under snow will likely occur over our northeast mountains nearby EKN through Monday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of cold front and IFR ceilings for PKB and HTS may vary this evening. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EST 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L H H M M M H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H L H H M M M M H BKW CONSISTENCY M M H H H M H H H M M H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H L M L M M H PKB CONSISTENCY H H M H H M H M M L L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H L L H M M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR conditions expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for WVZ522>524-526. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ005-006-013-014. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for WVZ516-518-520. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-105. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL NEAR TERM...26/ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.