-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
686
FXUS61 KRLX 022252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
652 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather with a warming trend tonight
into Friday. A cold front brings showers and storms as it washes
out over the area this weekend. Active next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 645 PM Thursday...

Diurnal anabatic surface flow converging along the spine of the
northern mountains has resulted in a healthy Cu field with a
few isolated light showers at present. Have inserted the chance
(~20%) for isolated showers over the next few hours in this
area, with an isolated rumble of thunder not out of the
question. The chance for precipitation quickly diminishes near
or shortly after sunset. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 142 PM Thursday...

High pressure to our east keeps dry weather conditions across the
area through tonight. A dry frontal boundary to our north moves
north as a warm front tonight and Friday, positioning the area under
a warm sector for the next cold front / low pressure system.
Friday`s afternoon instability builds about 1,000 J/Kg, PWATS
increase to 1.6 inches under low deep layered shear. These
ingredients will support scattered showers and isolated non-severe
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Locally heavy
downpours will be possible with the stronger storms.

Returned flow from the south and warm air aloft provides mild
temperatures for tonight despite of mostly clear skies and near calm
surface winds. Lows will generally be in the mid to lower 60s, with
few spots dropping into the upper 50s across the lowlands,
ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations. Increasing southerly
flow aloft brings WAA for Friday brings hot conditions, with
temperatures reaching the upper 80s lowlands, ranging into the
lower 70s higher elevations.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 150 PM Thursday...

Warm and humid conditions across the area Saturday, with showers and
storms expected as a shortwave crosses the region. This will be
followed by another wave that will cross the area on Sunday. With
the warm and humid conditions in place/PW values progged to climb to
around 1.5 to 1.6 inches, or well above normal for this time of
year, will see heavy downpours at times. Light flow during the
period, particularly on Sunday, could lead to some localized water
issues, but overall threat for flooding is low, due to antecedent
dry conditions, and continued greenup of vegetation. Temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday will be cooler owing to the increased cloud
cover/shower and storm activity, but it will still feel muggy. There
is a possible brief lull or at least decrease in the precipitation
expected late Sunday as the shortwave moves east of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1154 AM Thursday...

Active weather continues for the extended period as another
shortwave moves across the area on Monday. Focus then shifts to a
low pressure system over the northern plains that will eventually
move east over the Great Lakes and Canada, with an increasing zonal
to southwesterly flow aloft taking hold across the area, and
additional waves of low pressure developing and moving through the
region. Showers and storms, with heavy downpours at times are
expected, as well as an increasing threat for severe or organized
storms, particularly Tuesday onward as shear and instability
increase during the period. With the priming of soils over the
weekend, and the threat for heavy rains next week, could see the
potential for flooding issues increasing during this period,
particularly Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 141 PM Thursday...

Widespread VFR conditions under near calm flow are expected
through at least 12Z Friday. High clouds will gradually increase
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. This front,
together with mid level shortwaves, will promote scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms, with more confidence during
the afternoon and evening hours. Ceilings may become MVFR across
the Middle OH valley towards 00Z Saturday to affect PKB and HTS
first, before spreading east across the entire area overnight
Friday night into 12-13Z Saturday.

Light and variable winds are expected through the majority of
the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in rain and storms Friday night through Saturday,
and in stratus and fog Sunday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ