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118
FXUS61 KRLX 291250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
850 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Daily chances for showers and storms prevail through the weekend
amid the ongoing heat wave. Cold frontal passage Tuesday. Brief
high pressure Wednesday. Another cold front crosses Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 850 AM Sunday...

Decreased sky cover across the south and increased sky cover
across the north to better reflect current and forecast
conditions through early afternoon. Also increased PoPs across
portions of SE OH where some weak elevated convection was
ongoing.

As of 230 AM Sunday...

Quiet weather has settled back into the forecast area early this
morning after a fairly active evening filled with strong
thunderstorms and localized high water issues. Calm winds
overnight, in tandem with a plethora of low level moisture, may
yield another round of river valley fog before sunrise this
morning. This is especially true for spots that picked up
measurable precipitation earlier this evening.

Surface analysis paints a frontal boundary cutting through the
Ohio Valley and up into New England this morning. The
expectation is for the boundary to slowly sag further southward
today, but failing to make a full passage through the forecast
area. Where the front aligns during peak heating hours this
afternoon will be where the best potential for developing showers
and storms. Extra support from terrain influences will impose
likely POPs (greater than 55 percent chance) along the spine of
the Appalachians by the late afternoon and early evening. The
forecast becomes primarily radar driven by this evening, as the
loss of daytime heating will lessen shower and storm coverage,
but healthier cells could attempt to prevail for a few more
hours after sunset, aided by the loitering frontal boundary.
Main concerns with convective activity today will continue to be
damaging wind gusts and localized heavy downpours that could
lead to high water issues.

Hot and muggy conditions show no sign of going away within the
period, with daytime temperatures rising into the upper 80s/low
90s across the lower elevations and heat indices extending into
the mid to upper 90s by the peak of the afternoon. Overnight
temperatures stumble down into the 70s tonight, with a decent
signal for more fog heading into early Monday morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

For Monday, we will be in the warm sector ahead of a cold
frontal boundary draped across the region from a parent low
traversing east across Canada just north of the Great Lakes. For
the most part, the morning should be quiet, however diurnal
chances for shower and thunderstorm activity ramp up by mid
afternoon. Thunderstorm chances ramp up to likely storms around
this time frame as well and will last into the early evening.
Thereafter chances drop off some, but will stay elevated in
response to cold frontal passage for Tuesday.

Generally, on Monday, instability will be on the high side with
up to 3000 J/kg of MU CAPE to work with. The hydro indices will
be on the high side with PWATs around 2 inches and a very
saturated column. This will promote strong to severe storms as
well as heavy downpours once again across much of the area.
Weak shear will aid in slow moving storms which could lead to
localized hydro issues like what we have been getting lately.

For Tuesday, very similar setup with a slightly less saturated
column and lower PWATs and with the frontal passage likely in
the early evening, not too much time for slow moving storms to
cause issue for too long, since activity will be ending early
from west to east through the afternoon. There is however
enough instability to keep storms going and possibly becoming
strong to severe during frontal passage and even ahead of the
front earlier in the daytime. Shear will be greater than Monday
so storms should be moving along nicely and will likely not
cause too many hydro issues, but stronger storms may cause some
strong gusty winds or damaging, if severe.

After frontal passage by Tuesday evening high pressure at the
surface then quickly builds in and some lingering showers may
be left behind along the mountains as the upper level trough
shifts east slowly.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

Starting Tuesday evening and going into Wednesday, high
pressure will dominate for the rest of the week keeping most
activity away from the area. An upper trough on Thursday may
bring some chances for some thunderstorms in the afternoon
around the northern periphery of the CWA, but other than that,
much of the area will be protected. Going into Friday, chances
start to materialize, but just slight chances will remain
around the region, but much of our area will remain dry even for
Saturday. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out
however the safe pattern will continue for the rest of this
period and possibly beyond. However, central guidance has
chances popping up for Sunday even though medium range models
keep the area relatively dry.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM Sunday...

Early morning fog will gradually erode within the river valleys
over the next several hours. This will return all locations to
VFR ahead of isolated showers and storms progged to develop this
afternoon and evening. A nearby frontal boundary draped to the
north will slowly shift southward today, and will bolster the
best potential for convective activity. A mention of vicinity
thunder was included across all sites from this afternoon through
late this evening. The later evening portions of the forecast
will become primarily radar driven, with potential for lingering
storms past sunset. This will then transition to another decent
signal for river valley fog late tonight into Monday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset timing of showers and thunderstorms
may vary this afternoon. Fog coverage and timing tonight may vary
from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 06/29/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
and early morning fog, through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...MEK/JP
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK