Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KRLX 240710 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 310 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Another late winter storm Saturday. High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week, with a warming trend. A wavy front meanders across mid and late part of the work week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As 956 PM Friday... Previous forecast remains on track. No changes necessary. As of 300 PM Friday... Another late winter storm, but different than the previous two while creating the same sort of sensible forecasting issues. The biggest issues are fighting low level warm air advection as the precipitation begins as snow from the tri state area through the Tug Fork Valley. The system is complicated in the sense that the surface low and upper level wave are largely filling, but the f-gen forcing is holding strong while this is happening. This gives concerns to banded snow occurring once again, but without the benefit of cold air generation of a digging upper level low/dynamic cooling. The NAM is definitely more aggressive with the snow potential and the lower levels of the atmosphere staying colder through the process. Then the temperatures will slowly edge above freezing Saturday which will make snow accumulations more difficult. Have a higher confidence for the snow amounts in the far western zones where the snow will begin a bit earlier and the colder air is in place. Further to the south and east, locations not in the mountains such as the coal fields will see snow accumulate in the stronger bands, but will be fighting some melting along the way with the later start time and weak advection. Late afternoon snow accumulations will be most prolific in the mountains where temperatures are closer to freezing. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 AM Saturday... Remains of Saturday`s winter storm will pull out of the area on Sunday with drier air moving into the region. A high pressure system to the northeast will then be in control of the weather for Sunday night into Monday. A warm front will then lift northward Monday night and Tuesday, providing chances for light rain showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 255 AM Saturday... Moisture in advance of an approaching cold front will push into the area on Wednesday, once again providing some showers. Models then diverge a bit with some stalling the front west of the area and other stalling the front over the forecast area. Regardless, models then have waves moving along the front Thursday and Thursday night. The position of the front will affect the amount of precipitation that will occur. The front will finally push through Thursday night or Friday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 AM Saturday... Precipitation will gradually spread into southern terminals...taking until 17 or 18z or so to reach HTS/CRW/BKW. There is considerably uncertainty regarding what form this precip will take across HTS/CRW this afternoon, which will probably affect the degree of aviation restrictions. For now, I have played MVFR initially and lowering into IFR after 21Z with some snow expected. Expect mainly snow at BKW with IFR or worse conditions, as vsby is expected to drop below 1 mile. Further north, no impacts are expected give the very tight gradient to this system. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low on precip type at CRW/HTS this afternoon. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Snow may be more predominate if precip rates are heavy at HTS/CRW, resulting in predominate IFR or worse conditions this afternoon. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/24/18 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L M M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 06Z SUNDAY... IFR in rain/snow continues overnight tonight across BKW. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ005. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ033-034-515-517-520. Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for WVZ516-518. OH...None. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ101-103- 105. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ102. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Sunday for VAZ004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/26 NEAR TERM...ARJ/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.