Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 241811 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 PM EDT Thu May 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Weak upper level disturbances return Friday. Upper level short wave trough pulls tropical system north out of the Gulf, to produce unsettled weather this Memorial Day weekend and short work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 205 PM Thursday... Quiet forecast for mid to late May on the front end of the near term. Expecting mainly clear skies through tonight and temperatures back down into the upper 50s/lower 60s for the lowlands and lower 50s for the mountains. Clouds increase from south to north tomorrow as the mid level moisture depth returns to the region while the upper level ridge begins to deteriorate. Weak waves aloft will advect from the south into the southern zones, triggering showers and a few storms during prime heating hours, putting the CWA back into the general thunderstorm risk area from SPC. Temperatures on the increase with mid to upper 80s dominating the lowlands, and the stray 90F is not out of the question from the Kanawha/Tug Fork valleys into the Tri State area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Thursday... High pressure slides east on Friday. Moisture advection on return flow combined with enough heating...may be enough to to spark a few afternoon showers or thundershowers across southern WV, northeast KY, and southwest VA. These should subside during the evening with loss of heating. Regardless whether an area of low pressure across the northern Gulf becomes tropical in nature, the moisture from this feature will advect northward into the region over the weekend. Expect scattered showers/storms on a daily basis, primarily diurnal in nature. With relatively light flow and increasing pwats, downpours will increasingly become capable of enhancing localized flooding concerns by Sunday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 225 AM Thursday... Low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico will slowly move into the southern states, essentially becoming cutoff from the westerlies early next week. This will keep the threat of scattered showers and storms each day going, with localized flash flood concerns each day amid high pwats and light flow. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 130 PM Thursday... VFR. FEW/SCT cumulus field will dissipate this evening. Model soundings not depicting fog tonight, nor is the LAMP guidance, and will leave it out of the forecast. Mid level moisture increases from the south, encroaching the southern mountains and KBKW by 18Z Friday. Winds less than 10kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z FRIDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...30/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...26

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