Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 161822 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 222 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure through tonight. Next low pressure system late overnight tonight into Saturday evening.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Friday... Extended upslope light snow showers across the northeast mountains through at least 2 PM. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 630 AM Friday... Made some minor tweaks to temperatures and dewpoints into today based on current obs and trends. No significant changes made. As of 355 AM Friday... Have a weak impulse brushing by to the north early this morning, with some snow showers across the northern mountains. The thermal trough maxes out 12Z-15Z, so have snow showers lingering through then, and then shutting off quickly as surface high pressure moves in from the northwest. That high pressure is fairly short lived, as a warm front and wave of low pressure approach from the east late tonight. Have non-diurnal surface temperatures after midnight, but 850mb temps will warm more quickly. As overrunning precipitation moves in tonight, surface temperatures will play a large role in precip type. Currently have warm enough temperatures across the Tri-state and southern coal fields to have precip start as rain and remain there. But north of I-64 confidence is increasing in a period of freezing rain with a light coating of ice expected. Have issued a winter weather advisory for roughly the northern 3rd of the forecast area for late tonight into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Friday... ***Light freezing rain possible Saturday Morning*** Warm air advection with continued over-running aloft takes place Saturday morning as warm front lifts north. Brief period of freezing rain will overspread the area but then should quickly come to an end from south the north through the mid morning hours as chances for precipitation will increase into mid afternoon. Models have precip over the area during the 12-15Z timeframe Saturday and there is continued possibility for a light ice accumulation as atmospheric profiles show that precip will fall as -fzra at onset. SE Ohio and Northern WV should have the best potential to see any impacts from freezing rain Saturday morning, as surface temps should hold below freezing there the longest. This system will exit our region on Saturday night and high pressure will build in behind it. Will see drying of the atmospheric column Sunday night as sfc high pressure builds in. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Friday... Both euro and gfs models in fair agreement, showing the northern and southern stream shortwaves remaining out of phase across the eastern US at the beginning of next week. Better phasing occurs later in the week leading to cyclogenesis across the middle atlantic states. A push of colder polar airmass will make its way into the area from midweek onwards with a decent chance for mountain snows, with rain at the lower levels. Generally stayed with the model blends through the period as there is good agreement of the forecast evolution at least through Thursday. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 PM Friday... High pressure will continue in control this afternoon and evening under mostly clear skies and northwest flow. Clouds will increase in coverage ahead of warm front. Periods of rain and freezing rain will be possible Saturday morning to affect PKB, CKB and EKN. Confidence is low to call FZRA over the southern sites. The timing of the onset of pcpn over subfreezing temperatures will determine the extend of the FZRA. Therefore, expect VFR conditions into tonight. Conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR as the pcpn begins from 09Z tonight across the south. Then, moderate rain could bring periods of IFR conditions across the south, and FZRA/IP will pose a threat for IFR/LIFR conditions across the northern sites. MVFR/IFR conditions expected later Saturday afternoon and night as a strong upper shortwave passes through across WV. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of clouds and precipitation tonight may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR possible in rain Saturday into Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ008>011-016>020-028>032-039-040-521>526. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.