Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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758 FXUS61 KRLX 261915 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 315 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper trough through Sunday. Dry with high pressure for Memorial Day. Unsettled weather should return by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 210 PM Saturday... Scattered convection developing, but has been a bit hampered over the southern mountains with the ongoing shower activity from the morning and the cloud debris associated with it. Convection should peak over the next few hours with the heating, and then wane tonight. Leaving at least slight chance POPs in during the overnight with the approaching upper trough. During the day Sunday, expect this trough to move over the mountains, and will see a significant decrease in the dewpoints aloft in the mid and upper levels, so POPs will erode from northwest to southeast. By 00Z Monday, shower chances will be confined to the mountains. No changes to the general thunder outlook from SPC for our area. Through tonight, the slight risk of excessive just brush up against our border, thanks largely to the morning shower activity that was stationary just over into the RNK/MRX territory, and marginal for the rest of our CWA. As stated many times over the last week or so, this more resembles a mid summer pattern than spring time. This includes the overnight lows which will be governed again by the high 60s dewpoints in the area lowlands. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 310 PM Saturday... 5H ridge builds in over the Great Lakes with virtually nil atmospheric flow at the mid and upper levels. The leads to a rather stagnant weather pattern with the sensible weather being driven by diurnal convection. Atmospheric column not overly moist so main areas for afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will be over the elevated terrain of the eastern mountains. Will not see much day-to-day changes in max and min temps with each day a carbon copy of the last. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 310 PM Saturday... Considerable amount of uncertainty in the extended period, as the forecast will hinge on the track of Alberto. Will stay close to the consensus blend of the models which tends to spread the chances for rain across a more widespread area with generally chance pops. Can say with confidence that the trend will be for an upswing in shower activity from about midweek onwards as the pattern opens up the middle Appalachian region up to increasing amounts of tropical moisture each day. A northern stream wave will drop down across the Great Lakes for next weekend and uncertainty remains on how this feature will interact with remnants of Alberto, but even this should be well north of the forecast area. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 PM Saturday... Scattered convection area wide at this hour expected to continue through around 01Z Sunday, and could increase slightly in coverage. This makes the VCTS/CB near term 0-6 hour forecast the most popular bet this afternoon. Very difficult to use actual TSRA even in the near term, but is definitely a possible scenario going forward. Some modest wind gusts to 25kts possible in thunder. Will put fog in EKN tonight given the fog under BKN/OVC skies last night and in the same atmosphere. As stated yesterday, any terminals that receive rain will have to have a fog potential for the overnight reevaluated. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TSRA may be need at terminals in the next 6 hours. May need fog tonight if terminals receive rain. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...26

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