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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 221843
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving storm system approaches on Monday with rain
lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 243 PM Sunday...

Vertically stacked system will roll slowly eastward from the
Ozarks today making it only into western Tennessee by Monday
evening. This slow movement will keep our area largely dry
through tonight. We will have to deal with high clouds, which
became thick enough to limit sunshine and temps over the Kanawha
Valley this afternoon. Based on recent satellite imagery,
however, this appears to be thinning in enough time to allow for
a late surge in temps. The high clouds will persist in some
form or fashion overnight, but temps will still likely take
advantage of the dry low level airmass and fall, possibly as low
as the upper 40s in our normally colder valleys.

A band of rain will start to work northeastward into the
coalfields by around dawn on Monday. This will be heading into a
dry low level airmass with downsloping southeast low level flow
in place. So, the rain will likely break up some but I still
paint likely PoPs for many locations but with light QPF as this
band works deeper into the region during the day. The thicker
clouds and precip should keep temps in the upper 50s to mid 60s
for most locations. The other factor on Monday will be
increasing winds with gusts to 20 mph possible in the valleys
but 30 to 40 mph over the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

A showery pattern will be the rule early next week with the
approach of an upper level system. Tuesday looks like the
wettest of days, though remaining mild throughout. Overall a
good setup for folks wanting to put down some grass seed, like
myself, and let mother nature do the watering in.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 325 AM Sunday...

Weak high pressure builds in behind the departing upper level
system for Thursday and part of Friday. Thereafter, a cold front
will cross with showers and cooler air to follow for the
weekend. Just how cool remains uncertain with some disagreement
on the models of just how amplified this upper trof will be.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 112 PM Sunday...

While VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period, an
approaching storm system to our west will cause increasing winds
aloft. This will cause a marginal low-level wind shear risk at CRW
and EKN overnight tonight. Surface winds at BKW get strong enough
overnight to preclude a LLWS mention in that TAF. Otherwise,
surface winds will increase after dawn on Monday elsewhere and
become gusty. High clouds in place now will gradually lower as
moisture increases Monday morning and a band of rain will advance
northeastward toward HTS and BKW by the end of the TAF period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible late Monday afternoon and Monday night
under moderate rainfall.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ABE/26
NEAR TERM...ABE
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ABE