Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 192010 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 410 PM EDT Mon Mar 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the region into Thursday. High pressure takes control late week with another low pressure system next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 213 PM Monday... An area of low pressure, currently over the mid-Mississippi Valley, will move into the region on Tuesday. Associated clouds and precipitation will spread east early tonight and then continue across the region through much of Tuesday. With little in the way of clouds today, temperatures have warmed a few degrees above what was expected. These warmer than expected readings may play a role in what form the precipitation falls across the highest elevations tonight into Tuesday. Dewpoint temperatures are still quite low and not sure if the latest models have a handle on the evaporative cooling that should take place as the precipitation pushes into the area. Have leaned toward the cool side of guidance tonight. However, have increased the readings by a degree or so to reflect the warmer afternoon temperatures. Even with the lowest portion of the atmosphere cooling to freezing or below, models suggest temperatures just above the surface will remain above freezing through the period. This results in the precipitation becoming a wintry mix across the highest elevations of our northern West Virginia mountain counties after midnight tonight and then continuing into Tuesday. Could see a tenth or so of freezing rain with some sleet and snow as well. After consultation with our neighbors, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory mainly for ice for tonight into Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 410 PM Monday... Very difficult forecast to say the least as another late season winter storm, which shows similarities to last weeks heavy wet banded snow, approaches. Overall, expect precip to be falling as rain Tuesday evening, although snow and sleet will likely be falling in our eastern higher elevation zones. The column cools overnight Tuesday night and expect rain to transition to wet snow. The transition will happen fast in bands of heavier precipitation and snow can pile up fast, especially considering this will happen overnight and into the early morning hours on Wednesday. Models are screaming about the potential for heavy wet snow, but differ on where any heavier, warning criteria bands will set up. After coordiantion with WPC and surrounding offices, feel the best potential for this heavier banded snow to occur is across our northern Ohio zones, eastward into our northern and central WV counties, and our mountain counties. Highlighted this area with a Winter Storm Watch. Our Tri-State counties should be the last to change over and thus should see less overall snowfall. Highlighted this area, including as far east as Kanawha County in a Winter Weather Advisory. Again, uncertainty is high and these highlights will likely need to be adjusted in time based on model trends. Snow will continue into Wednesday morning before gradually ending from northwest to southeast into Wednesday night. Temps were held down on Wednesday from blended guidance with expected precip. Elsehwere, stayed close to blended guidance with generally dry weather expected on Thursday.
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&& .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 245 PM Monday... High pressure briefly builds and passes through Friday for a dry day, though continued NW flow aloft evens out any solar insulation and continues to keep temperatures near normal. Then, another system attached to a weak short wave affects the area during the weekend. Models diverge a bit on location/track for this weekend`s system in regards to local impacts. While models agree that over- running style rain showers will fall in this region, the boundary upon which warm/moist Gulf air over-runs may be closer (more rain, possibility for snow upon onset with moisture reaching further northward into cooler air) or further to the SW (later arrival of rain and more showery in nature on the back- end). Chose a middle-of-the-road solution with a slight preference to the 12z ECMWF, thus we`re somewhat warmer than a general blend. The boundary may meander back up into the area at the start of the work week with ridging/WAA, keeping shower activity going at least in the southern zones && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 124 PM Monday... VFR conditions with light surface winds through 00Z, although areas of MVFR cigs will likely develop across the mountains after 21Z. Clouds should thicken and lower with MVFR conditions in rainshowers will spread north after 00Z. By 08z, MVFR conditions will prevail across much of the area with patchy IFR or even LIFR conditions in the mountains as well as the southern coalfields. After 09Z, the precipitation will changeover to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain across the higher elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains. After 12Z, conditions across the lowland counties to the west of the mountains should improve as southeast downslope winds prevail. Gusty southeasterly winds will develop after 02Z particularly across the higher terrain, with occasional gusts in the teens to lower 20 kt range. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through 00Z, then Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of precipitation and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR possible in precipitation Tuesday afternoon through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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WV...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for WVZ008>011-016>020-027>034-039-040-515>519- 521-524-525. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for WVZ005>007-013>015-024>026. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for WVZ523-526. Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for WVZ520-522-523-526. OH...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ083-086-087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Winter Storm Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening for VAZ003-004.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...ABE/JSH/MC NEAR TERM...JSH SHORT TERM...ABE LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...JSH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.