Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 191026 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 626 AM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper system crosses today. Weak disturbances cross early next week. Cold front crosses mid week, followed by high pressure to end the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 622 AM Saturday... Forecast on track this morning. Some peaks of sun look to great the early risers and yard sale patrons across southern counties this morning. As of 145 AM Saturday... Pesky upper low finally gets the kick today as it opens up and lifts northeast through the area. Expect showers and storms to increase in coverage as the day progresses from west to east. I`m not overly impressed with severe potential for this afternoon. Mixed layer CAPE is meager and while mid level lapse rates increase and wbz heights decrease with the arrival of the upper trof, deep layer shear values are marginal at best to sustain updrafts capable of large hail. Having said that HRRR ensembles paint do paint a risk across portions of southeast OH northern WV lowlands this afternoon, and SPC maintains a marginal risk today across most of the area. DCAPE values suggest a low damaging wind threat with any bowing segments as some drier air below 5kft could intensify any downdrafts. Storm motion should mitigate flooding concerns, though localized flooding in poor drainage areas is possible across the north. The upper trof axis pushes east this evening, taking the bulk of the showers and storms with it. Some showers will be noted across the northern lowlands and northern mountains tonight along a weak frontal boundary. Boundary layer flow may result in low stratus formation versus fog, with quite a bit of stratus envisioned across northern counties and most of the mountain counties.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Some low level dry air will attempt to inhibit precipitation on Sunday, providing a lull in the action. Moisture returns to the area on Monday, providing a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. The moisture will remain through at least Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 235 AM Saturday... Models diverge a bit for mid week with the timing of a cold front pushing through the region, with the Canadian actually waiting until Thursday. With such a wide spread in guidance, confidence for mid week is fairly low. By Thursday night, models all have the front south of the region, providing dry weather and an increase in confidence for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 625 AM Saturday... Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage midday onward as an upper level trof crosses. PROB30 IFR groups were inserted at this distance based on the most probably times to affect the various terminals late this afternoon and early evening. Winds will become gusty out of the southwest today, on the order of 15 to 20 kts. The upper level trof pushes east tonight, taking most of the showers and storms with it. However, a weak front will cross overnight with some light showers possible at CKB/EKN. Boundary layer flow and lingering low level moisture will result in an increase in low stratus at CKB/EKN/BKW late tonight, possibly affecting KCRW as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of convection this afternoon may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z SUNDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend and again for the beginning of the work week.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30

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