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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KRLX 212208
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
608 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure through the rest of this weekend. Upper low Monday
through Wednesday. Weak high pressure for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 600 PM Saturday...

Sent a quick update to adjust up hourly temperatures through
00Z. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 115 PM Saturday...

Big bubble no trouble. High pressure will stay in control
through Sunday. Some high clouds will start to filter in from
the west late this afternoon and overnight tonight. Temperatures
tonight won`t be as cold as last night with increasing high
clouds. High pressure starts to move eastward during the day
tomorrow, look for temperatures to stay on the warm side as
winds shift to a more southerly direction.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

Split flow aloft tracks a closed low into the Tennessee valley
and southern and central Appalachians for the beginning of the
week, bringing off and on rain through the short term over a
couple days period of time. Associated surface low will move
across the deep south and up the coast in conjunction with the
movement of the upper system. While the surface low should not
directly affect our area, it will prevent high pressure from
entering the picture until the long term with the next wave
aloft enters the Ohio Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Saturday...

Weak high pressure is short lived at the onset of the extended
forecast as the next upper wave digs into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. Operational models are trying to strengthen this
feature as of the 12Z runs and close it off, which would lean
towards another seasonably cool airmass for next weekend, but
will play the modest hand for now.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 120 PM Saturday...

VFR expected through the TAF period. High pressure will be in
control with increasing high clouds overnight and early
Sunday. Winds will be light and variable through the afternoon
hours and tonight. A southerly shift to the winds Sunday as the
high pressure moves off to the east.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

Timing of increasing clouds may vary overnight and early Sunday
morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible late Monday afternoon and Monday night
under moderate rainfall.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/26
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JS