Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 212208 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 608 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through the rest of this weekend. Upper low Monday through Wednesday. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 600 PM Saturday... Sent a quick update to adjust up hourly temperatures through 00Z. Rest of forecast remains on track. As of 115 PM Saturday... Big bubble no trouble. High pressure will stay in control through Sunday. Some high clouds will start to filter in from the west late this afternoon and overnight tonight. Temperatures tonight won`t be as cold as last night with increasing high clouds. High pressure starts to move eastward during the day tomorrow, look for temperatures to stay on the warm side as winds shift to a more southerly direction.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM Saturday... Split flow aloft tracks a closed low into the Tennessee valley and southern and central Appalachians for the beginning of the week, bringing off and on rain through the short term over a couple days period of time. Associated surface low will move across the deep south and up the coast in conjunction with the movement of the upper system. While the surface low should not directly affect our area, it will prevent high pressure from entering the picture until the long term with the next wave aloft enters the Ohio Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 245 PM Saturday... Weak high pressure is short lived at the onset of the extended forecast as the next upper wave digs into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Operational models are trying to strengthen this feature as of the 12Z runs and close it off, which would lean towards another seasonably cool airmass for next weekend, but will play the modest hand for now. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Saturday... VFR expected through the TAF period. High pressure will be in control with increasing high clouds overnight and early Sunday. Winds will be light and variable through the afternoon hours and tonight. A southerly shift to the winds Sunday as the high pressure moves off to the east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY... Timing of increasing clouds may vary overnight and early Sunday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 EDT 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 00Z MONDAY... IFR conditions possible late Monday afternoon and Monday night under moderate rainfall.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/26 NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...JS

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