Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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473 FXUS61 KRLX 231034 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 634 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front pushes south today. High pressure tonight into Friday. More unsettled weather arrives in time for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 350 AM Wednesday... A cold front will continue to push southward through the forecast area today. Moisture remains sufficient for some showers in southern and eastern WV and southwestern VA until the cold front pushes through. A high pressure system will build in behind the cold front, providing dry weather tonight. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... Quiet as high pressure noses in from the north. This feature will shift east on Friday, such that enough return flow moisture may allow an afternoon shower or thundershower across western and far southern counties. Expect dense river valley fog each morning. Central guidance numbers were excepted with not change. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 AM Wednesday... All eyes on what happens in the northern Gulf over the next several days. Regardless of whether an area of low pressure becomes tropical in nature, the moisture from this feature will advect northward into the region over the weekend...persisting into early next week. Expect scattered showers/storms on a daily basis, primarily diurnal in nature. With relatively light flow and increasing pwats, downpours will increasingly become capable of enhancing localized flooding concerns. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 630 AM Wednesday... A cold front over the region will move off to the south today. A few showers are possible in advance of the front. Low stratus and fog this morning will gradually lift into a cumulus deck today. Expect VFR conditions this evening. Some protected mountain valleys could see some fog late tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low this morning, high this afternoon and tonight. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, height, location, and raising of stratus deck could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY L M M L H H M M H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY H M M L M H M M M M L L EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L M H H M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M L L M M M H M M CKB CONSISTENCY M M H M M L M M M H M M AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.