Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211023 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 623 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure system brings rain transitioning to all snow tonight into Wednesday night. High pressure takes control late week, followed by another low pressure system next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 240 AM Wednesday... Overall, no significant changes to the current forecast thinking. Upper low will continue to rotate across the area through at least the first part of today before finally moving off to the east this afternoon and evening. Much of the southern WV zones have yet to change over to snow, but this is generally expected to occur over the next few hours, by 09Z or so. Still, much of the snowfall accumulations across southern lowlands will be limited, due to warmer boundary layer temperatures, with most accumulations still expected across the mountains. Did bump up snowfall forecasts this evening across parts of the northern mountains and at EKN based on heavier bands evident on radar. Also increased totals a bit across northern WV and adjacent SE Ohio zones. Overall, despite the small increases in locations, current warning/advisory headlines look good, and will keep as is at this point with no changes. Otherwise, winds will gradually shift to a more northwesterly direction today as the upper low starts to move east, with occasional gusts in the teens this afternoon, slightly higher in the mountains. Precipitation will gradually taper off later this evening as the low continues to pull away from the area. Will see some lingering upslope snow in the mountains late tonight, but overall timing of ending of heavier precipitation, and current timing of headlines look ok at this point. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... High pressure and northwesterly flow aloft will keep temperatures below normal through the end of the work week. A surface low will come out of the Rockies Friday, and move through the lower Ohio River Valley on Saturday. Under the northwest flow, this low should cross from western KY, into eastern TN and then the Carolinas Saturday night. We should see precipitation move in from the SW as this low passes by...have likely POPs across the southern 2/3 of the forecast area Saturday and Saturday night. Initially, expecting this to start as snow early Saturday, but as temperatures warm some Saturday should see a transition to a mix and eventually just rain outside of the mountains. Could see it remaining rain/snow mix across the south as well where temperatures aloft will be in the 0C to -2C range. Then as the surface low heads through the Carolinas and out to sea, colder air will ooze back in from the NW and have precipitation ending as snow Saturday night into Sunday. Have some minor accumulations... half to one inch... across the Tri-state and southern coal fields Friday night and Saturday morning. Then Saturday night into early Sunday, anticipate 2-5 inches across the northern mountains, with light amounts across the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 300 AM Wednesday... Any lingering precipitation should taper off Sunday followed by high pressure late Sunday into Monday. Models show the next system approaching toward mid week -- the GFS is a bit faster with POPs arriving Tuesday morning while ECMWF shows late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Did not deviate much from a consensus blend through the long term. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 620 AM Wednesday... 12Z Wednesday through 12Z Thursday... Widespread IFR and local LIFR conditions in -sn. Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will linger for much of the day Wednesday in -RA and -SN, although gradual improvement to widespread MVFR/local IFR will take place after 20Z, as precipitation slowly starts to wind down, particularly across the north and west, with VFR gradually developing from west to east after 03Z. Otherwise, gusty northwesterly winds will take hold after 16Z, with occasional gusts in the teen across the lowlands, and the lower to mid 20 kt range across the higher terrain. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. Timing of improvement late tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L M M L L HTS CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L M L L BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L L L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L L M H L L CKB CONSISTENCY L M M L L L L L L L L L AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... IFR possible in precipitation and low ceilings into Thursday morning.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ032- 039-040-516-518-520>526. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ027-028-030-031-033-034-515-517-519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...SL is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.