Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 170205 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1005 PM EDT Fri Mar 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through tonight. Low pressure system brings a bag of wintry mixed pcpn late overnight tonight into Saturday morning. Another system arrives Monday night through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 1000 PM Friday... Have a wide range in MOS guidance numbers for overnight lows, which in turn affects how much ice accumulates with the freezing rain in the morning. The current forecast is close to the LAMP, so will stay the course for now. Am nervous with the MET MOS being so cold. Will tweak sky cover for the next several hours based on meso models and latest satellite trends. As of 245 PM Friday... A high pressure will continue in control of the weather conditions through at least midnight. A low pressure system approaches from the west and brings a warm front during the pre dawn hours to spread mostly rain. However, temperatures at the surface could drop to sub freezing levels tonight. The timing of the onset of pcpn over subfreezing surfaces will produce FZRA and ice accumulations of a tenth of an inch across the north, ranging to a glace up to a tenth of an inch across the south. A winter weather advisory has been expanded further south to include counties along and north of a line from Kanawha in WV, northwest to Lawrence OH for late tonight into Saturday morning.
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&& .SHORT TERM /5 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 300 PM Friday... Low exits to our east early Sunday morning with weak high pressure building in behind it. This should keep us mostly dry through most of the short term period, but clouds will be on the increase again Monday morning. Do bring in some chance PoP across the south Monday afternoon and evening as a warm front approaches the area. The onset of precipitation should just fall as rain, but will have to watch for a transition to a wintry mix in the mountains Monday evening. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 310 PM Friday... Models differ a bit Monday night into Tuesday morning with the track of a surface low. The Euro is a little further south than the GFS and this would allow for snow to be the dominant p-type in the mountains, while the GFS brings in warmer air aloft and would allow for a wintry mix. As this system moves off the East Coast it will bring cold air in behind it with below average temperatures expected once again. Upper trough and NW upslope flow is starting to look more likely as well Wednesday into Thursday and although it will officially be the first day of Spring, their could be some snow flying once again. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 700 PM Friday... VFR conditions can be expected for most of the night. Late tonight/early Saturday, some rain/freezing rain will move into the area. This band of rain will push northward across the region, providing some restrictions. Temperatures will gradually warm during the morning hours, changing precipitation to all rain. Some locations could see some IFR restrictions on Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High tonight, low Saturday. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions Saturday morning could vary. Restrictions on Saturday could be much better or worse than forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SAT 03/17/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR possible Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for WVZ006>011-014>020-027>032-039-040-521>526. OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 1 PM EDT Saturday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ/RPY SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...RPY is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.