Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 162005 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 405 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend with daily shower and thunderstorm chances in a warm and humid air mass. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1115 AM Wednesday... No significant changes were necessary to the near term forecast period. Split flow pattern continues across the area, with high moisture content air in place, out ahead of an upper shortwave trough upstream of the area, with a stalled frontal boundary across the CWA. Satellite estimates of PW values around 1.5 inches along and south of boundary, which at 1530Z was stretched west to east, generally bisecting the CWA in half. This boundary may sag a little farther south during the period, but overall will remain relatively stationary. Multiple weak disturbances in the flow, will aid in shower and thunderstorm development at times, but overall timing of these individual disturbances remains difficult. Overall, light flow, surface and aloft, will result in slow moving showers and storms, with heavy downpours in the moisture laden atmosphere. Heaviest rainfall amounts are expected across the mountains, and northern WV zones during the period, with a general 1-1.5 inches east of a line from ckb to crw, with a general 0.75 inches of less to the west. A ffa will likely be issued later this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 405 PM Wednesday... Split flow aloft with northern stream trough over the Great Lakes and southern stream trough stretching across the southeastern United States. Southern stream trough transitions northward with trough axis making its way to the Tennessee and Kentucky late Friday night. Atmospheric column quite moist with PW values running around 1.75 inches. Moist atmosphere with weak flow regime could lead to prolonged heavy rain events from slow moving showers were any convective development occurs. Mass fields of models are in fairly decent agreement in weak flow regime with differences cropping up when getting down to the finer details of the myriad of weak shortwaves embedded within the flow. Thus leaned heavily on blends for the forecast. Flood watch posted through Friday.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 405 PM Wednesday... Pattern shifts out of split flow regime as 5h ridge strengthens off the east coast. The upper level low shifts northeast and departs on Saturday with a brief break before the next wave arrives Sunday night into Monday. Blends give low end pops through mid week and this looks reasonable based on model trends.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 130 PM Wednesday... 18Z Wednesday through 18Z Thursday... Widespread MVFR conditions are starting to develop across the higher terrain, as heavier precipitation forms across that area. West of the higher terrain, mainly VFR conditions, although brief MVFR/IFR conditions can be expected at times across the lowlands as more widepsread shower and isolated thunderstorm activity develops this afternoon and evening. As with last night, expecting widespread MVFR and IFR conditions to develop in low stratus and fog, generally improving after 12-14Z, with more showers and thunderstorms developing after 16Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and thunderstorms could vary thru the whole period. Timing, location, and density of fog/ceilings overnight could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M L L L L HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M L L L L PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L L AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief periods of IFR possible in showers and storms into the weekend. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Friday evening for WVZ028-030>034-039-040-515>526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KMC/SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...KMC LONG TERM...KMC AVIATION...SL

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