Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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070 FXUS61 KRLX 181833 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 233 PM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure through Monday. Another system arrives Monday night through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 230 PM Sunday High pressure system will keep the area cool and dry through the period. Clear skies and clam winds could allow for radiational cooling, making temperatures to drop around freezing in some places overnight. Continued with some very low end POPs arriving from the south across the eastern mountains during the pre-dawn Monday.
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&& .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday... Unsettled weather returns to the area in the short term period. Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Still looking at the possibility of a light wintry mix across parts of the northern mountains early Monday, changing over to rain as an upper shortwave trough and surface low approach and move through the region. There is a small possibility of thunderstorms across the far south Monday evening, but elected to leave out of the forecast for now as better chance appears to lie south of the CWA. Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are expected. Have highlighted the potential for a winter weather advisory in the HWO for this time period. Some uncertainty exists for details on Wednesday, but overall, looking colder, as an upper trough deepens across the eastern U.S., with snow showers a possibility area wide, with at least light accumulations expected across parts of southeast Ohio, northern WV and the mountainous counties. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 305 AM Sunday... Cooler, but overall drier to start the long term period, although a few light upslope showers may linger for the first part of Thursday in northwesterly flow. Another system expected to move into the area by the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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As of 130 PM Sunday... High pressure provides CAVU conditions through the period. Winds will be light and somewhat variable through the period. Another sfc low pressure system will approach from the west beginning of the week. Models track this low pressure across the area, further north than the previous system. The more the northern track of its center, the better the probability for liquid pcpn Monday through Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... IFR possible in precipitation Monday into Tuesday.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK NEAR TERM...ARJ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...ARJ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.