Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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163 FXUS61 KRLX 241606 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 1206 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving storm system approaches with rain lingering through midweek. Southern system may graze the area late Thursday into Friday. Cold front Friday night or Saturday. High Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 1200 PM Tuesday...Tweaked PoP based on latest radar and meso model trends...still looks like the most significant rainfall will be falling across SE Ohio, but amounts of around an inch or slightly more should not cause any water issues. As of 940 AM Tuesday...Made some minor changes to temperatures over the next few hours, as the clouds and rain have kept them from warming too much so far this morning. Other than that, the forecast remains on track. As of 650 AM Tuesday... Increased pops across the north today for basically ace probs. I also beefed up QPF per latest model runs. As of 200 AM Tuesday... I`ve allowed the wind advisory to expire on time as winds have been below criteria. Having said that, I still expect some decent gusts into mid morning given the stout LLJ in place. I issued an SPS to highlight this in the areas that were previously in the advisory. The slow moving upper level low will continue to pivot toward the area today, passing just south of the area tonight. Bands of showers will continue to be the rule as a result. I included some thunder across southwest Virginia this afternoon, though instability is meager. Highs were nudged toward a cooler consensus across southeast Ohio, with the mildest readings likely in our banana belt region along the westward facing slopes, courtesy of strong southeast downsloping flow.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Showers will tapper off by late Wednesday as the upper low moves off to the east. Considerable differences exists with the next system late Thursday into Friday. GFS is much further north than other models and would require much higher pops. With other models in relatively decent agreement, will discount the GFS for now, but will need to keep an eye on this system. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 240 AM Tuesday... Models showing a cold front or two for Friday night and Saturday. While models agree on the general pattern, there are differences in the timing and amount of moisture available to the fronts. A high pressure system will then build in and provide dry weather for the rest of the weekend and into the next work week. && .AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 650 AM Tuesday... Upper low will continue to approach the area today, passing south of the region tonight. This will continue to allow bands of showers to pivot through the area today. VFR conditions should hold for the most part today outside of BKW, though some tempo MVFR vsby was coded up 12 to 15Z in showers. Cigs will gradually lower later today and this evening across southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia as the upper low closes in. This will result in MVFR bases overspreading the lowland terminals this evening and IFR overnight, though CKB/EKN likely stiff arming this until very late tonight. BKW will see their cigs lower into low end MVFR or high end IFR today, lowering even more so this evening. Strong southeast flow just off the deck will persist today, resulting in 20 to 25 kt surface winds at EKN/BKW with gusts to 35 kts at times. Elsewhere, winds will be significantly less, thanks in part to a more stable boundary layer. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions will likely vary from current forecast tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 EDT 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H L HTS CONSISTENCY L H H H M M M M H M M L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H L L L L H H H H L PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H L H H H H L CKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible Tuesday night in light to moderate rain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...MPK/30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...30 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.