Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 181031 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 631 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today into Monday. Another system arrives Monday night through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Sunday... Removed any remaining POPs across far SE as all showers have moved out. Otherwise no changes made. As of 140 AM Sunday... Lingering showers across the southern coal fields will taper off through early this morning. A high pressure system moves in from the northwest today with mostly clear skies and light winds. The mid-March sunshine should help warm temperatures into the mid 50s across the lowlands and 40s to low 50s in the WV mountains. Have some very low end POPs arriving from the south during the pre-dawn Monday -- ECMWF still supports this, while NAM and GFS are a bit slower and would keep it dry through the night. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 AM Sunday... Unsettled weather returns to the area in the short term period. Southeasterly flow and moisture increases across the area early Monday out ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Still looking at the possibility of a light wintry mix across parts of the northern mountains early Monday, changing over to rain as an upper shortwave trough and surface low approach and move through the region. There is a small possibility of thunderstorms across the far south Monday evening, but elected to leave out of the forecast for now as better chance appears to lie south of the CWA. Low will move off to the east Monday evening, with colder air taking hold, and a change over to snow, particularly across the higher terrain, where light to moderate accumulations are expected. Have highlighted the potential for a winter weather advisory in the HWO for this time period. Some uncertainty exists for details on Wednesday, but overall, looking colder, as an upper trough deepens across the eastern U.S., with snow showers a possibility area wide, with at least light accumulations expected across parts of southeast Ohio, northern WV and the mountainous counties. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 305 AM Sunday... Cooler, but overall drier to start the long term period, although a few light upslope showers may linger for the first part of Thursday in northwesterly flow. Another system expected to move into the area by the weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 140 AM Sunday... Generally VFR expected through the forecast period...with the exception of MVFR to IFR across the southern coal fields and mountains this morning. Winds will be light and somewhat variable through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling changes may vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M BKW CONSISTENCY L M M M M M H H H H M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M AFTER 12Z MONDAY... IFR possible in precipitation Monday into Tuesday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...MZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.