Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 211957 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 357 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper low departs and snow gradually ends. High pressure takes control late week, followed by another low pressure system next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 215 PM Wednesday... Temperatures across the lowlands are largely at or just above freezing, so accumulating snow from anything falling after the early morning hours have been difficult to come by in this particular area. In the mountains, however, snow continues to accumulate, and have this continuing well into the evening. HRRR and RAP are showing a gradual dissipation of coverage and intensity going forward as the upper level closed low accelerates up the Atlantic Coast. High pressure moves in later tonight, scouring out the mountain low level moisture, but hold low end POPs until the thermal trough shows signs of degradation. 850mb temperatures will not recover very much during the day on Thursday. Skies clear southwest to northeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 320 PM Wednesday... The period begins dry and cold under the influence of broad troughing across the eastern CONUS and surface high pressure. The resulting temperatures will be around 10 degrees below normal for mid-late March. Ridging in the central Plains is interrupted by a rather wound-up short wave aloft ejecting out of the Rockies with lee-cyclogenesis occurring on the surface by Friday afternoon. As the low tracks across toward our area, it will intensify as it enters the right entrance region of a Great Lakes jet aloft. Precipitation along the system`s warm front will enter the Tug Fork/Big Sandy basin by Saturday morning. Depending on the timing of onset relative to solar insulation, snow will fall upon precipitation onset with a brief period of sleet and freezing rain before a switch to all-rain with warm air advection Saturday. Models agree that the center of low pressure will pass to the south of us, limiting convective potential and thus heavy rainfall potential with PWAT barely reaching 0.75" in the Tristate area. As the system exits and cold air advection kicks in with trough passage, temperatures will again drop and switch rain back to a wintry mix/snow overnight. Snowfall accumulations look to be up to 2 inches in the lowlands with widespread amounts generally under an inch. The mountains will likely see more as 850 temperatures begin to drop and support accumulation, especially as the system exits Saturday night into early Sunday, on the order of 2-4" and locally up to 6" total. A light coating of ice is also possible upon onset in the coal fields and sheltered valleys with a warm nose aloft.
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As of 350 PM Wednesday... High pressure and ridging returns Sunday night through early Tuesday with southwest flow finally bringing some much-deserved warmer temperatures into the region. Look for Tuesday high temperatures near 60 in the lowlands with deep southerly flow and strong warm air advection. Positively tilted troughing over the central Plains approaches mid-week, placing us at the end of the fire house yet again - looking a another wet pattern to set up with PoPs rising in the Mid-Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Did not deviate much from a consensus blend through the long term.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM Wednesday... Expecting a very gradual tapering of the snow over the next 6 to 12 hours, so IFR conditions are still likely to persist during this time before improving to MVFR, and then ultimately VFR. Upper level storm system will make its exit, with the lower level moisture eroding west to east, but the mountain terminals at EKN and BKW will likely remain in MVFR ceilings through the bulk of the forecast period. Winds at BKW will gust to 20kts at times through the entire period, while the other terminals should stay below 12kts. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow and associated restrictions may vary from forecast. Timing of improvement late tonight may vary from forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L M HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M M H L M L H H L BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M PKB CONSISTENCY M L M L L L H H M H H M CKB CONSISTENCY L M L H M L L L L L H M AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... IFR in precipitation with the next system on Saturday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ032- 039-040-516-518-520>526. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for WVZ027-028-030-031-033-034-515-517-519. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066- 067-075-076-083>087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105. VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ003-004. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MC NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.