Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 231725 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 125 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure today. Another winter storm Saturday. High pressure to end the weekend and start the next work week with a warming trend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 925 AM Friday... Only minor adjustments this morning. Tranquil weather. EKN is climbing out of the teens. As of 650 AM Friday... Adjusted sunrise temps down a bit based on latest obs. It is a cold and frosty morning, with EKN sitting at 12 degrees as of 10Z. As of 320 AM Friday... A beautiful end to the work week with weak high pressure nosing in from the north. Some stratocu may form across the northern lowlands and northern mountains this afternoon, courtesy of weak CAA. Otherwise, a mainly sunny sky with moderating temperatures, though still well below normal. I do expect a pretty decent fall in temperatures this evening, with light flow and very dry air in the low levels. As the night progresses and high and mid level clouds work through, temperatures should level off heading into the predawn hours. Attention then turns to the potential winter storm poised to affect the southern half of the CWA Saturday. There remains differences between the NAM and basically the remainder of the global model suite, including the ensemble runs. The NAM appears to be overly aggressive with the WAA with a system whose mid and upper level support will be shearing out in confluent flow across the mid atlantic region. Thus this northern solution has largely been discounted, but not totally. We are relying on the model and esembles consensus for the nitty gritty details, but stressing there is still some wiggle room given the NAM solution. Impressive isentropic lift amid a tight thermal gradient centered on H85, will allow for strong frontogenetic forcing to setup in a narrow zone across the southern portion of the CWA, primarily just beyond the near term. Expect a band of precip to advance into far western and southern zones by 12Z Saturday. Model soundings suggest mainly snow as good wetbulbing allows any residual warm nose in the boundary layer to quickly cool as precip rates increase. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 420 AM Friday... Models showing a low pressure system moving south of the area Saturday and Saturday night. Most models have shifted southward from last night, although meso NAM remains with heavier precipitation further north. Models also differ considerably with the warm tongue aloft. Nam is furtherest north with the warm air with other models further south. A third area of concern is boundary layer temperatures. MOS guidance continues to show lowland temperatures in the mid to upper 30s (or even lower 40s), during the heavier precipitation. With all this uncertainty, will only issue a winter storm watch in the higher elevations of eastern Raleigh and Fayette counties where confidence is highest. North of this area, many models do not give enough QPF for warning criteria snows. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 420 AM Friday... A high pressure system will build in for the end of the weekend and the beginning of the next work week. As the high slides off to the east milder temperatures can be expected across the area. A southerly flow will allow moisture to move northward into the area by mid week as a front approaches from the west. Models are in general agreement with the pattern, but vary in the details. By Thursday night, the front should push through the region. && .AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 120 PM Friday... Expect some stratocu development, VFR, over the northeast terminals later this evening and tonight. Otherwise, cirrus expands from southwest to northeast, and the ceilings will steadily lower through the back end of the forecast with rain/snow development from HTS to BKW. Ceilings and visibilities will degrade in the last 4 hours of the forecast for both terminals as precipitation sets in and the lower levels saturate. Wind gusts have increased this afternoon and have adjusted those accordingly. Will decrease with sunset and decoupling of the boundary layer. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Rain/snow timing may vary by an hour or two. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M L M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... IFR in rain/snow continues into Saturday night.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday night for WVZ516-518. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30/26 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...RPY AVIATION...26 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.