Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 131035 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 535 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Sunnier today, but continued cold. Dry for the second half of the work week and the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 530 AM Wednesday... Made a few minor tweaks to hourly temp and sky grids this morning. Clouds are continuing to erode in the mountains where a few flurries and ice crystals will persist for another hour or two. As of 119 AM Wednesday.. Persistent snow showers continue to gradually diminish across the mountains with nearly all areas expected to see an end of the falling snow by sunrise. Lingering cloud cover will gradually mix out during the remainder of the night as well. In general, a rather quiet weather day is expected today as surface high pressure center moves overhead. Daytime temps today will be warmer than Tuesday`s values, but not by much. Only a slow warming is expected today, and although forecast highs are prog to be above freezing in some areas...that will likely only happen for a brief amount of time. Tonight, a quick drop in temps this evening should occur with gradual rise in temps then occurring overnight as low level warm air advection initiates. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 135 AM Wednesday... S/W trof axis will gradually cross Thursday into Friday with little fanfare, other than some clouds. Meanwhile, energy will hang back across the Red River Valley as the longwave trof lifts into eastern Canada. This will help to induce weak cyclogenesis along the northern Gulf Coast with low pressure tracking to the Southeast Coast Friday and becoming quite the rain maker for those folks into Saturday. However, this will have no impact to our sensible weather other than some cirrus. Despite the moderation from recent days, temperatures will remain 6-8 degrees below normal for highs and lows. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 135 AM Wednesday... Despite a complex synoptic pattern across the Eastern US this weekend and early next week, we look to remain primarily dry with just intervals of clouds to contend with. Southeast coastal low and its parent upper level system will track to the Mid Atlantic Coast before heading northeast. As it does so energy diving southeast through western High Plains will help to reestablish the mean trof across the East to start the new work week. Temperatures will moderate to just a few degrees below normal to end the work week, before backing down a few degrees early next week. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 531 AM Wednesday... Lingering MVFR clouds at KBKW/KEKN should rapidly mix out very early in the TAF period. After that occurs, widepsread VFR should prevail today and tonight with only some passing CI at times. Weak/vrb sfc winds today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE WED 11/13/19 UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EST 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time. && .CLIMATE... Record low temperatures may be challenged Wednesday morning. Below are the records for Wednesday November 13th. Charleston 16 1911 Huntington 17 1911 Parkersburg 17 1986 Clarksburg 15 1926 Elkins 10 1920 Beckley 12 1986 && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for WVZ523-526. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RH/30 NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...RH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.