Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 271909 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 309 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Upper trough remains in vicinity with showers and storms today. Convection lingers in the mountains Monday. Unsettled weather returns mid week, as remnants from Alberto push northward. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 220 PM Sunday... Actually getting the northern most fringes of the cirrus associated with TS Alberto into Dickenson/Buchanan/McDowell counties this afternoon. Convective activity is firing in a weakness in the 500mb field aloft, east of a very sharp dewpoint gradient/deformation zone oriented west to east from the PA/WV border back into southwestern Ohio, and then southwestward along the Ohio River. There will be slight southward movement of this feature aloft through the CWA this evening into tonight, and will keep the POPs confined to this area as a result. Mild again overnight with valley fog a strong bet. Keep the shower chances going as well in the aforementioned areas as well. POPs largely confined to the mountains and the western slopes on Monday. Meanwhile, further northwest, temperatures in southeastern Ohio could reach the 90F mark, and should be the warmest in the CWA tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Main focus for the short term is the track of Alberto as it weakens and lifts north. Consensus has been to shift the track a bit west, with the circulation center now lifting into the lower Ohio River Valley by Tuesday night, and to near the southern tip of Lake Michigan by late Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday the remnants should head east across the Great Lakes. Have generally chance POPs Tuesday into Tuesday night with widespread likely POPs Wednesday. Models showing a bit of a precip shadow across the western slopes Wednesday, so actually kept POPs a touch lower there. Then also have likely POPs Thursday as the remnants pass well to our north. Periods of heavy rain are expected, but uncertainty remains in locations of highest accumulation. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday... Decent uncertainty through the long term. GFS showing an upper level low in the vicinity through much of the period. The ECMWF keeps this as an open wave and is more over the East Coast. With this in mind went with a consensus blend which keeps some POPs around through the weekend. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM Sunday... Showers popping again today, some thunder possible, but again, VCSH will dominate with mountain terminals will utilize VCTS at times. No prevailing for the terminals, and may have to AMD if cells approach. LAMP guidance and other models are hitting the fog hard during the overnight for all terminals, and have put this in the forecast. OVC sky cover could change this as well, and will re evaluate at the next synoptic time issuance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need brief IFR in -TSRA. Fog may not develop tonight due to sky cover. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 05/25/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... No widespread IFR expected. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MZ/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...MZ LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26

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