Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000 FXUS61 KRLX 240055 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 855 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Slow moving storm system approaches through tonight with rain lingering through midweek. Weak high pressure for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 855 PM Monday...Adjusted PoP according to latest radar trends. Otherwise the overall forecast remains on track. With the next update, may have to cancel wind advisory a few hours early, with gusts being a bit lighter than originally forecast. However, still gusting above 30 mph at times at Beckley, so will wait and see if we see some higher gusts when strongest winds aloft move in over the next hour or two. As of 420 PM Monday...Increased PoP across the area into this evening based on current radar coverage and latest Meso Model guidance. As of 200 PM Monday... A low pressure system will gradually move through the area tonight and exit Wednesday night. Initial band from this low is moving though the CWA this afternoon. Winds will stay gusty through this evening and eventually die down after midnight, except on the mountain ridgetops. Will keep the wind advisory going through the evening for the southern and central mountain zones as 50-60kt low level jet maxes between 00Z-06Z tonight. Low Pressure moves across the area on Tuesday, keeping likely pops over the entire region most of the day. Temperatures stay on the warm side throughout.
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&& .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 315 PM Monday... By Tuesday night, a closed low aloft will be located nearly overhead. Its associated, southern stream low pressure system will impact the area in the form of gusty rain showers through Tuesday night and will pivot out of Central Appalachia Wednesday afternoon as it travels toward the coastal Mid-Atlantic and northeastern states. Although rain showers will be common across the area, they should remain light with minimal risk for flooding. The best moisture exists further to our South and East in the Smokey Mountains and areas of the Piedmont - meanwhile we are limited to about 1" PWAT, at maximum, in this area. Expect widespread rainfall amounts up to 0.25", with higher amounts up to 0.75" possible in the eastern mountains - closer to the track of the low. Widespread cloud cover greatly limits the amount of instability we can muster, so have opted to leave thunder out of the forecast at this time. Wednesday night, the low pulls away toward the NE with weak high pressure building into the area from the West. Rain showers will taper through the night from West to East before drying entirely early Thursday. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 330 PM Monday... Weak high pressure erodes Thursday night with another southern stream system and short wave approaching. The southern low creeps up the Piedmont Friday and has potential to generate showers along our eastern mountains. However, long-range models are trending further East with the system which would leave those areas dry. Confidence is therefore low in that portion of the forecast. Meanwhile, a digging trough across the Mississippi Valley approaches Friday with a mostly-dry cold front. This front will interact with the southern system Friday night through early Saturday, generating light shower activity across the bulk of the area, especially in areas toward the North. Then, the larger digging trough absorbs the southern system and kicks the entire mean trough East by mid-Saturday. Ridging aloft and high pressure builds for the remainder of the weekend with clearing and warming conditions into the next work week. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 725 PM Monday. Upper low will continue to head NE into the region tonight and tomorrow. Rain showers can be expected, but for the most part, conditions will remain VFR. Southeast winds gusting to 25 to 35kt tonight at BKW, with lighter winds elsewhere. As the low tracks over the area during the day tomorrow, look for VFR Cigs/Vsbys to become MVFR and possibly IFR in heavier showers. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR/IFR conditions will likely vary from current forecast tomorrow. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 04/24/18 UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M L EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M L CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible Tuesday night in light to moderate rain.
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&& .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for WVZ515>522. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JS/MC NEAR TERM...JS/MPK SHORT TERM...MC LONG TERM...MC AVIATION...MPK

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